Nauseating levels of Saylor-imitating Bitcoin treasury companies at this point.
They may do well in the bull market… but there will be extreme wreckage during the subsequent bear market.
Regular folks should simply stack sats and chill while the chaos unfolds. 🍿
thanks Doc. happy Tuesday 🫂
How do you see them failing? What will cause it?
Many will take on too much leverage late in the cycle, which may come back to bite them.
What bear market?
Sit on Sats 🪑only chair you need.
Agreed. I don’t understand this stuff but I’m bracing for a ‘22-style implosion.
Bring the pain. This will be almost as much fun as watching leveraged degens get wrecked😂
That's a sharp take, and one that resonates with many in the Bitcoin community. The "Saylor-effect" is undeniable; MicroStrategy's bold strategy certainly set a precedent, and it's no surprise to see other companies attempting to replicate that perceived success, especially during a bull run.
You're absolutely right to highlight the potential for extreme wreckage during a subsequent bear market for these leveraged treasury companies. Their reliance on debt or equity raises means their balance sheets are directly exposed to Bitcoin's volatility, and a significant downturn could lead to liquidity crises, forced sales, or even insolvencies if they haven't managed their risk appropriately. It's a very different proposition to holding Bitcoin as a pure software company vs. becoming a quasi-Bitcoin ETF through debt.
The wisdom of 'stacking sats and chilling' for the regular individual investor is a classic for a reason. It simplifies the approach, removes the stress of trying to time the market or manage complex corporate balance sheets, and relies on Bitcoin's long-term value proposition. While the institutional players navigate their high-stakes game, the individual investor can benefit from dollar-cost averaging and self-custody, avoiding the counterparty risks associated with corporate holdings.
This is the only way unless you have a deep understanding of the risks and rewards. It almost feels like shitcoining. Personally, I just can’t invest in Treasury companies after getting PTSD from ICOs, ..not from losing dollars, but losing Bitcoin. Way more painful.
Bitcoin treasury companies today = use debt to buy bitcoin. Bitcoin treasury companies of the future = normal businesses earnings in bitcoin
We've been writing a series comparing the TreasuryCos to the 1920s investment trusts preceding the 29 crash. https://bewaterltd.com/p/bitcoin-treasury-companies
The emphasis on the “SPAC” in Bitcoin Treasury Company SPAC, not on the “Bitcoin”.
Don’t presume institutional or sophisticated investors are immune from the fallout either, though.
Start making a list of the worse of the worse of these treasury names because when the Bull rolls over it's going be fun shorting all those names. Seeing more Eth treasury names now too. $SBET $BMNR been active ones. Probably be even more confident shorting all the shit eth treasury companies during crypto winter. We shall see.
This is my plan as well. I will be watching these entities closely as we near the top of the bull market.
It’s the only way I can sell high and buy low; it’s my liquidity.
Correct
Any thoughts on 7 trillion in money market accounts? How much do you think will shift if Trump gets his rate cuts?
I think much of it will shift into risk assets as the economy heats up and the bull market takes hold.
This cycle’s ICO
Why would they get rekt if they are following the Saylor playbook and not taking on secured debt or leveraging over 30%?
They are doing what rational people would do if they had the ability to raise capital like corporations can.
Only a small number to the new bitcoin treasury company "managers" actually understand bitcoin and dollar-based financial plumbing like Saylor does.
And many are literally managing billions of dollars and tens of thousands of bitcoin.
It's like giving a confident five-year old the keys to brand new Ferrari and expecting a good result.
The wheat will get separated from the chaff once the good times have ended.
The playbook is open source. There are no proprietary secrets. If you have a premium you do accretive dilution. If you don’t you borrow on good terms and buy Bitcoin until mnav increases then do step 1. I know there are more complex strategies being deployed by competent managers, and perhaps some not as competent.
I don’t doubt there will be companies with 50 BTC that have bad management and “blow up”, but I’m yet to see one with over 1,000 BTC
Running a ponzi isnt complicated. You sell out shareholders for a loan, buy btc, resell that exposure as new shares, repeat until it blows up.
Absolutely
Agreed. The unwind will melt faces.
The bitcoin treasury company bubble will be huge.
The most simple is not always the most easy for our dopamine addicted crowd
Bitcoin will continue to humble the man with fiat mind virus
I'd kind of like to see Strategy implode and take out every "Bitcoin treasury company."
I prefer sats on ice
winters will come
Stay humble stack sats 🫡🧡
And keep enough cash on hand to weather the bear
So, we have to prepare to be sick 24/7 as Bitcoin takes over the world?
Apparently.
🧡👍🍿🎥🎬🫣🤣
I want all the companies to imitate Saylor.
This is not nauseating. This is what I've been trying to talk people into for years..
Nobody is forced to sell their bitcoin to anyone. These companies are merely bidding on bitcoin that lettuce hands don't value as much as many of us.
All aboard the SH&SS 🫡
