I'm becoming more convinced that the best number to watch in Bitcoin is the hashrate, rather than the price in US dollars.

When you figure out that this is an image of the healthiest food you can eat, all of your health problems start to improve...

The Bitcoin network has just surpassed the historic milestone of 1 Zeta Hash.

1 ZH/s (one zeta hash) is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (one sextillion) hashes per second.

This is the number of times per second that all miners combined try to solve the proof of work.

If masa (japans second richest man) took a 130 million dollar loss I’m going to assume he bought around 17k and sold around 11k meaning he had roughly 21k coins.

Today they would be worth 2 billion.

Instead he booked a 130 million dollar loss.

Masa is worth 30 billion, so he isn’t exactly hurting, but that 2 billion dollar position today would be poised to grow to 20 billion soon enough and 200 billion a decade after that.

There’s still time to unfuck the decision, but I doubt he will.

Even the best investors in the world come to Bitcoin and dash themselves upon the rocks.

Don’t expect your friend Steven from college to pick it up over beers and a rousing drunken speech by you about the evils of central banking lol 😆

Yeah, so somewhere in there earlier I was trying to make the point to the arguebot that the folks with the platforms would be a great avenue for this. Talk about the features, pros, cons, etc. and mention the tax liability. Ultimately we want people having a good experience, not calling it a scam. And they will when they get that tax bill, even if it is technically their own fault. Seems easier to educate them up front and explain the personal responsibility of it. But I don't see that much, hence me getting all pissy about it. 😆

JFC this slate numbnuts is killing me... ANYWAY... Basically we agree on all this stuff, I just have some exposure to people who would want to do this, and yeah, they'd be buying and selling it right back out. They really need that extra couple of percent that they'd pay in taxes or fees. So I'm sensitive to that side of it.

I also know some OGs who would never move that cold corn to a KYC exchange. So those are my idea of people who "held BTC" which may be an overgeneralization on my part. I'm kind of leaving out the shorter-term hodlers, so maybe they do win in all this, like in your DCA case.

At the end of the day, I'm complaining about there not being a big wall of metaphorical text reminding plebs that this is not currency, it's an asset.

If you’re selling BTC to pay bills, you’re not really benefiting from ‘cheaper-ness’, you’re just spending your BTC and triggering a taxable event in the process. The whole idea of Bitcoin is not constantly converting it to fiat to navigate a system Bitcoin was meant to replace. In this case, you’re simply exposing yourself to unnecessary tax friction without any real gain over just spending in dollars for bills you know are coming. Again because with this feature you are not spending Bitcoin, you are SELLING it.

If you’re selling BTC to pay bills, you’re not really benefiting from ‘cheaper-ness’, you’re just spending your BTC and triggering a taxable event in the process. The whole idea of Bitcoin is not constantly converting it to fiat to navigate a system Bitcoin was meant to replace. In this case, you’re simply exposing yourself to unnecessary tax friction without any real gain over just spending in dollars for bills you know are coming. Again because with this feature you are not spending Bitcoin, you are SELLING it.

This isn't for people who held BTC. It's for plebs who want to try this BTC-only lifestyle they keep hearing about. They end up buying and selling and buying again and selling again because it sounds so great. They could've just used the fiat on bills and bought corn instead of giving it to the government and the exchange in taxes and fees. It's not the taxes that bug me. It's the complete lack of mentioning the taxes and that your corn is just getting sold.

And the taxes. Pay your bills plus CG tax. I can't understand why nobody mentions this. It says right in the fine print that your sats are sold for fiat, then sent out to whoever is getting paid.

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This actually seems somewhat bearish based on a return of an average of 50% per year... should be 95000*1.5^15=~41.6Billion...

and in actuality, it has returned an average of 316% per year if you mined and held from day 1.

so really the math would be 95000*3.16^15=~2,970,000,000,000

...that can't be right

Bitcoin has now been working and trading for 15 full calendar years. It's time to see how it's doing and run some numbers.

On Jan 1, 2010, there were 1,624,000 bitcoin in circulation trading at around $0.001 each. The total market capitalization of bitcoin was ~$1,624.

On Dec 31, 2024, there were 19.803 million bitcoin trading at around $93,389 each, for a total market capitalization of $1.85 trillion.

In total over the 15 years, the size of bitcoin cash balances has increased by 110,400,000,000,000%, or around 110 billion percent.

If, during the next 15 years, bitcoin grows at only 1 ten millionth of its growth rate over the last 15 years, it grows to a total market cap of around $210 trillion, making it larger than all the world's fiat currencies and government bonds combined.

In such a world, a government may be able to keep its shitcoin alive if it doesn't inflate its supply too much (a big if, and an even bigger may). Whether they do or do not is largely inconsequential, because either way, inflation won't be able to touch the majority of the world's wealth.

Any bitcoin bearish thesis needs to present a coherent explanation for why bitcoin's next 15 years are going to have a growth rate that is significantly lower than a ten millionth of the rate of the past 15 years. Don't expect to hear one from people who get paid from the inflation bitcoin will kill.

Happy 2025!

Fiat is over if you want it!

Choose one.

1. A 50 year marriage

1. 50 bitcoin

THE BITCOIN NETWORK TRANSFERRED $6.6 TRILLION IN 2024.

this is beautiful it its own weird way

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