nobody has a crystal ball but this is my current vibe:

12-18 more months of this bull cycle

fed will cut rates, we will likely rip this fall, will likely continue through 2026, intensity and price heavily dependent on macro

most new people will buy bitcoin penny stocks rather than real bitcoin because of x influencers

at some point most participants will believe this time is different, that we have entered a supercycle

people will then get greedy and overleverage themselves, take increasing risk

blow off top and and a great unwind

mstr will probably be fine, most bitcoin penny stocks rekt, a few may get caught in fraud, there will be a narrative that mstr is going to sell, which will drive panic

bottom of the next bear will likely settle over $100k

stay humble and stack sats

The US government spent 185% more than it received in May.

The monthly deficit hit $316 billion.

Exhibit A, Exhibit B.

Yes, B is a direct reply to A.

Nostr does have a nutjob problem. Notably more nutty than Twitter.

I had a dream that bitcoin was 160k. Then I looked at it again and it was 600k. I had to double check that I wasn’t dreaming. But could not, since I was. 🤣

Not a fan of this message, it doesn’t promote bias towards action. If all of us tried to figure out how we will finish before the start, none of us would be able to accomplish anything in life. Don’t trust random “quotes” (note the quotes around the word) from the internet. 🫡

nostr:note1z22ymlyz9jnnuf7m35gt8fug6qa5ctclyypg4n65j6qk38n6vnfsfxr9fq

Today's Big Mac Index: 5,516 sats 🍔

Just one year ago, it was 8,207 sats. That's a juicy 51.39% drop! 🔥

Witness the power of #Bitcoin's deflationary nature. Food for thought: as fiat inflates, Bitcoin remains the rock. 📉🚀

#BTC #Dashboard #FinancialFreedom

?v=1749270205

GM

This cake is gay.

If you don’t recognize this as the fallout from the Wisconsin Judicial election, you aren’t paying attention.

- David Sacks asks the Winklevoss twins/the audience what else the administration should do for bitcoin

- People shout ‘no capital gains tax’

- One of the twins takes it in and says, “Something about capital gains tax. You know, I think it’d be great if the US government started proactively acquiring bitcoin.”

JFC.

Some of the people heretofore celebrated by bitcoiners stand to gain a lot if bitcoin is boxed in as just an investment, and lose a lot if it becomes money.

As I stepped onto the plane leaving Oslo 🇳🇴 the weight and warmth of the last few days settled into my chest.

The Oslo Freedom Forum is not a conference. It's not a summit. It’s something harder to name. A convergence of courage, truth, and defiance that burns through the noise of the modern world and gives you no choice but to listen, feel, and act.

For the second time, I’ve walked away from OFF more convinced than ever that the tide is turning. That amid the censorship, surveillance, and state repression, something unstoppable is rising.

The Forum doesn’t trade in empty optimism. It delivers a different kind of hope: forged from lived experience, stitched together by people who have been in the dark and still chose to build the light.

The stories shared were hard. At times, devastating. But they weren’t offered for pity. They were calls to action.

You don’t leave Oslo feeling defeated. You leave reminded that truth is more powerful than propaganda, that code can protect life, and that resistance isn’t just possible, it’s already happening.

This year, there was a noticeable pulse of momentum around freedom tech. Human rights defenders from the front lines spoke not only about the oppression they face, but about the tools they’re using to push back. #Bitcoin, nostr, privacy protocols, open source AI models, and uncensorable VPNs.

These are the instruments keeping movements alive, getting money to dissidents, and protecting voices at risk. And behind every tool is a quiet builder, a pseudonymous contributor, or an open-source developer who may never take the stage but is just as much a part of the story.

Being part of the financial freedom team at HRF only deepens this sense of purpose. I couldn’t ask for a more principled, talented group of allies.

nostr:nprofile1qqs9336p4f3sctdrtft2wlqaq5upjz9azpgylhfd3dplwf005mfrr9spzamhxue69uhkummnw3ezuendwsh8w6t69e3xj7spz3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wct4lwjj nostr:nprofile1qqsvyc3vj9kehy8pp2qm9wn8kxdal3wkhcnvy46k68uep5mctnsnvxcpzpmhxue69uh5ummnw3ezuamfdejsz9thwden5te0v4jx2m3wdehhxarj9ekxzmny2mxsde nostr:nprofile1qqs80mykdlxkf7gpz5k26hw8wvw8eqclughq9cawn8l3gcm7tfywl8qpp3mhxue69uhkyunz9e5k7qg4waehxw309ajkgetw9ehx7um5wghxcctwvsw86hga nostr:nprofile1qqspcvwvmgnsnlrv7hds5zcgwdsnuftyd39fg3mem76734kthnfwu8qpp3mhxue69uhkyunz9e5k7qg4waehxw309ajkgetw9ehx7um5wghxcctwvsqdcd98

nostr:nprofile1qqsz9g9lps62400tjx4wg8dgtjgmrq3easktmv3dlkslxtlltsj487spz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqx9fh3z nostr:nprofile1qqsrjp40qtt73860r6ptfgr0ejwgl58s499egfvlvs49zszy4u2unaqpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqpr3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezucnfw33k76twv4ezuum0vd5kzmq3jzqf4nostr:nprofile1qqsgpq7lvzqajx6zhncsggs4ujlu39903y7dql4ywt5qr0q8jndrjdqpzamhxw309a6k6cnjv4kzumr0vdskcw358q6rstcpz9mhxw309a6k6cnjv4kr5dpcxsuz7j9w6wc nostr:nprofile1qqsrwhxpj2scvaevrzkrwm83qjzmkjh3adct7fgtzxlh4lpjy8qymmgpp3mhxue69uhkyunz9e5k7qg4waehxw309ajkgetw9ehx7um5wghxcctwvsjjpk4j

These are people who care deeply, work quietly, and show up every day to make sure those fighting for their rights and freedoms aren’t left alone.

It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the scale of the problem, but being in this team reminds me that change starts by standing with those who share a vision and mission for a more free and just world.

I’m leaving with a head full of names and projects, and a heart that feels cracked open in the best way. I’m grateful for the conversations, the hard questions, the laughter over dinners, and the moments of silence that said more than any speech could.

Above all, I’m reminded that no authoritarian regime, no matter how brutal or well-funded, has ever succeeded in stamping out the human desire to be free.

Oslo is proof of that. And if you're paying attention, it's also a glimpse into what comes next.

Onwards and upwards, my friends 🧡

Anyone watching anything good ...or bad? #🍿 #filmstr #filmfridays ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

PSA: You can't just add all the years of experience your people have and then claim you have that number of years of aggregated experience. That's not how that works.