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Portfolio manager (EM debt, rates, FX). De- vs centralisation is the left/right of our age. Bitcoin, markets, life, family etc

Increasingly X is just propagandists barking at each other with a few ignorant midwits in between thinking they’re witnessing a riveting conversation between people with a lot of conviction about their subjects of focus

True, there’s always the risk of a March 2020 type of wick.

But if you blink and miss a few weeks, price will have basically remained unchanged before embarking on a massive pump.

War and bubbles blowing up will mean the money printer will go into overdrive an we’ve just shifted from P into D.

We might both be right đŸ€đŸ€

My main theory on BTC price:

- it moves with Fed balance sheet / liquidity, always has

- we were never supposed to have a 2023-25 bull market into QT

- the SVB spike which was quickly unwound set in motion a price pump, but was a false start

- ETF and strategic Bitcoin reserve headlines kept it going

- we’re now - as many are calling a bear market - heading into the conditions where BTC historically actually pumps

Being pro the S&P500 is directionally right at least. But it’s like walking bare feet on an 8 lane high way saying “look at this, zero obstacles, smooth terrain, I can get from A to B super fast”. As the Bitcoin sports cars zoom by you left and right

Buying Bitcoin early doesn’t solve living in a country with majority foreigners and a gun under your pillow because boomers needed them to keep the gdp growth scam going to safeguard the pensions.

Wild how different the experience on here is compared to X.

X is basically just a propaganda battlefield at this stage.

Browsing Nostr I feel relaxed, it’s easy to put the phone down. Browsing X gets me in a state of anger as I doom scroll for hours

Been like that for years. Whatever the issue at hand, if A is the logical decision with widespread popular support, and B what does most damage and angers people the most, EU decision making will always be

A————————————here-B

It’s obvious that as the boomer generation permanently fades out over the next 10 years or so, shit is going to hit the fan everywhere.

Number go up is a nice feature. But actually, even if Bitcoin forever stays at $92,255, whatever part of my net worth I have stored in it and in cold storage, is mine and my family’s forever.

You can’t say the same for all your other assets, which will inevitably get turbo taxed or confiscated in war or economic collapse. Yes, that includes your Bitcoin ETFs.

So you might go “oh perhaps I should get some”. You try to buy Bitcoin after going through degrading KYC exercises and your card rejects the transaction. You try to send $10k to Coinbase and your bank’s AML department would like a word with you.

Soft capital controls are already everywhere, and the net is tightening. If you’re still fixated on Bitcoin price, you’re thinking about the wrong way. Stack sats like your life depends on it.

Gotta say the biggest plus for me so far (recent X refugee) is to be free from the constantly rage inducing algorithms over there. World of difference

Rep Massie Introduces Bill For US To Dump 'Cold War Relic' NATO

Rep Massie Introduces Bill For US To Dump 'Cold War Relic' NATO

Conservative and outspoken libertarian-leaning Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky introduced legislation Tuesday for the United States for formally withdraw from NATO. Sen. Mike Lee is also helping lead the charge, introducing companion legislation in the Senate.

The bill argues that the US military cannot be seen as the police force of the world, and that given NATO was created to counter the long-gone Soviet Union, which no longer exists, American taxpayers’ money would be better spent elsewhere.

"We should withdraw from NATO and use that money to defend our own country, not socialist countries
 US participation has cost taxpayers trillions of dollars and continues to risk US involvement in foreign wars
 America should not be the world’s security blanket - especially when wealthy countries refuse to pay for their own defense," Massie said.

?itok=G40y38Xc

That latter part is likely designed to gain Trump's attention and sympathy, given the president has been emphasizing this point all the way back to his first term.

The bill if passed would require the US government to formally notify NATO that it intends to end its membership and halt the use of American funds for shared budgets. Republican Senator Lee actually introduced similar legislation earlier this year, but it stalled in committee.

Of course, most Congress members have viewpoints which merely reflect the 'pro-NATO' established position of the vast majority of Western politicians generally, so it's very unlikely to ever be passed.

Massie wrote on https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1998526052243746978/photo/1

, "NATO is a Cold War relic. The United States should withdraw from NATO and use that money to defend our country, not socialist countries. Today, I introduced HR 6508 to end our NATO membership."

"Our Constitution did not authorize permanent foreign entanglements, something our Founding Fathers explicitly warned us against," he said additionally.

The NATO Act:

Requires the President to formally notify NATO of U.S. withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Concludes that NATO’s original Cold War purpose no longer aligns with current U.S. national security interests.

Finds that European NATO members have adequate economic and military capacity to provide for their own defense.

Prevents use of U.S. taxpayer funds for NATO’s common budgets, including its civil budget, military budget, and the Security Investment Program.

Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) has introduced companion legislation, S.2174, in the United States Senate. The text of the NATO Act is available at https://massie.house.gov/uploadedfiles/nato_act.pdf

.

"If you could snap your fingers and get us out of NATO today, would you?" Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, asked in a post on X.

"Yes," Massie replied.https://t.co/Nifjbtt7O1

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1884623805781319852?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Under pressure from Trump, NATO members agreed this year to gradually raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP, significantly above the old 2% guideline. European leaders were finally amenable to this, despite mocking it years ago during Trump's first term, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the "threat" to Europe that they perceive.

Moscow has denied time and again that it has 'expansionist' ambitions - yet US and EU leaders continue to portray Putin as some who dreams of reestablishing an old empire, or else revive Soviet power and borders.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden

Thu, 12/11/2025 - 04:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/massie-introduces-bill-us-dump-cold-war-relic-nato

I think it is probably time to dismantle NATO. But I do fear the unexpected consequences of reactivating the old European war mindset are potentially not well understood.

We had an entire Bitcoin bull run into QT. I see it as mostly ETF driven, no surprise the shitcoin complex didn’t join in. Anyway, people turning bearish here are weird to me - distinctly remember 4y ago this time saying “Fed is about to start QT, can’t see this going much further”. We going up

People seem to forget it’s a BTC trader tradition to be seasonally ultra bullish, followed by ultra bearish.

Ie they’re just signaling their book as they trade to grow their stack, and there’s zero signal here.

The signal will be when Bitcoin finally gets so scarce the market starts to steamroll these mfs with their annoying mind games one by one.

KYC, AML, restrictions on how we move our money around and how much cash we are allowed to spend by mommy government are legitimately insane. How this generation ever managed to get so turbo cucked needs to be studied