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satskew
542585126fbd1fc7ed51754ffae78f3f9f84b2ce066a62a5c25106e16b2ec188
just a node
Replying to Avatar calle

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really enjoyed this discussion - being able to send/receive offline using a locking script is quite cool. Calle your approach and overall philosophy resonate strongly and I also really love cashews !

Replying to Avatar jimmysong

AI vs Bitcoin

The AI hype has been non-stop for the last 2 years ever since ChatGPT came out with its 3.0 chat. Since then, there's been an insane amount of investment into AI tech from every direction. There are hundreds of startups, every tech giant has been making investments and companies in between have been putting a lot of money toward it as well. It's not a small amount, either, as the AI hardware costs make Bitcoin mining look like discount bargains.

Yet after two years, what have we to show for it? Maybe some faster image editing on newer phones? Slightly faster answers to questions you would normally ask Google? Some productivity increase among junior programmers? The investment was enormous, as can clearly be seen in NVIDIA's growth, but the results are pretty underwhelming. As with any hyped technology, the possibilities have run past the actual use.

One of the supposed benefits of fiat money is that capital accumulation is unnecessary to create real value. You can build roads, for example, without having to save up for it. What this misses are many obvious drawbacks, but one of them is that there has to be someone that evaluates whether something will create value and create the money out of thin air to fund the project. This is not just inherently centralizing, but also deeply political.

For whatever reason, AI passed this political test and got the blessing of the money printers, which, to a company that sells, shovels like NVIDIA has been great news. But the drawback is that there's bound to be at least *some* that don't pan out. Maybe some segment of the economy can't use AI profitably, for example. Yet the powers that be, mostly Cantillionaires, have decided that this is worthwhile and have poured insane amounts of money into this bet.

But much like hyped tech of the past, it's looking more and more likely that there's little profit to be made here. Yes, there's some useful things that can be made, but the costs are simply too high right now to justify spending that much. It's a luxury item that mostp people simply don't need, and hence don't want to pay for. AI has become an expensive solution looking for costly problems to solve.

This was always my analysis with another hyped tech: blockchain. It never really made any sense as the cost was too high for what was really just a distributed, very redundant but hard to upgrade database. It, too, couldn't find costly problems to solve, with the exception of one. That, of course being Bitcoin.

What differentiates Bitcoin from AI is that people *need* Bitcoin. It's its own killer app. AI is not so popular that people will pay for what it costs right now. And that means that most of the investment will be wasted. Like most hyped things in a fiat economy, it's doomed to have significant malinvestment.

A lot of people complain about Bitcoin businesses and how hard it is to make them profitable. In a sense, I get it. You want more people to have steady jobs and so on. But in another sense, I think this is the market speaking. You're not going to get paid from Bitcoiners easily and there's no flood of printed money looking for a place to go. At least there won't be once fiat money has run its course. Building a profitable company is hard and so few meet that mark, especially in a new segment as AI has shown.

So in that way, I'm encouraged, because the companies that survive in Bitcoin will have something truly worthwhile. By contrast, the companies that survive in AI will probably be the ones that get subsidized the longest.

theres been a lot of mal-investment driven by the fiat interest rate policy. many zombie companies in the public markets

i've considered getting an s9 to stack privately since all the US ATMs seem to KYC and primary income is still in fiat. maybe there's a better way thats not a meetup scenario like a join via mixer?

Gm

may you be free (from ReplyGuy spam)

absolutely - how big would the stack of federal laws and regulations actually be? equivalent to a multiple story building at least ?

GM

may you be well

Twitter was paramount in bitcoins growth and its battles. Was a very cool quirky place eons before that too. Even though I have a very old account, bitcoin was the reason I started using it more frequently.

I met an incredible amount of good ppl there. Some of the best ppl I know was directly or indirectly because of the bird app. Hired ppl. Connected ppl.

There was/is absolutely nothing like it.

It's hard to imagine how the direction of my life would have gone, it was greatly impacted by it.

Crazy place! A true public square, I'm incredibly grateful for it.

Covid killed it, or at least accelerated its dystopian trajectory.

US politics gravitational force also doesn't help. Nothing on earth can scape use politics, everyone and everything deal with its consequences.

Even decentralized things. But they fare better. See bitcoin.

Anywho... Being with the X account deactivated over the weekend was quite nice, it had been a very long time since I fully disconnected. It is still a lot of signal, a lot of Lindy. But is also became an open sewer. (Why?)

The algorithm evolved for maximum conflict. It's hard to even describe how much it makes your skin crawl. It finds all the shit you don't want to read by the ppl you don't even knew about existed and vomits on you. Even with the large muted word list. It's not a healthy place.

Maxium engagement = more ad views?!

I don't want the firehose all the time. Humans are not designed for that. Different moods different content. Different types of engagement. Maybe even different clients for different sub network graphs. It's time time evolve. I think Nostr takes us there.

BUT I think Twitter's value can't be ignored. It is still a ginormous network.

That's aside from good ppl I know there, where it is our only comms channel.

I plan on drastically decreasing my use of it, truly limiting to posts about Nostr, projects I like and amplifying bitcoin things I believe in. The goal is to trend towards end of use. Hopefully it gracefully coincides with Nostr rising as the new public square. Protocols must be open. There must algo choice. Or we are doomed to doom scroll and ad target conflict.

I no longer will allow myself to scroll.

And will try to starve the beast as much as possible.

GN

this feels like a healthier form of engagement vs max conflict firehose

system is riddled with contradictions and circularity. need a sound money standard to check the military capabilities which gives them control of the ledger

my understanding is when the federal debt and interest expense are so large that the federal reserve cannot raise or keep interest rates high to combat inflation. you get into a doom loop where higher rates raise interest cost and thus lead to higher deficits, which require more money printing to fund the treasury debt issuance. if the inflation is driven by this deficit spending, then fed raising rates will only exacerbate the problem.

nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a would you clarify or disagree with that ?