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Christian Kaiser
54686984fae3b6010ef7978f3184e58be4506c6a3153ae980b1ab4c22b526106

I feel like the nostr protocol is something like the bitcoin first layer. It’s the bedrock and we are building on that.

Most of the software/services out there are working just fine for the general public. It’s sad that the bob does not care about what their nostr clones does for him but he has to keep his life on track after all. He just wants the stuff to work.

But in the end the nostr ease of use case with just a key pair for all services that you want to use is quite convincing. We are just not there yet but I think we are going strong. It’s not like nostr is as shiny new as, let’s say, ChatGPT when it comes to end user appeal. Nostr devs are kind of cloning all the stuff that’s out there for now. But once the ecosystem is there and it’s easier to use than the complicated combination of tools/services out there we (and of course the users) will win. I think it is just going to take time since nostr is not a multi billion dollar corporation that can focus on making whatever as appealing as possible. Nostr will get there because nostr protocol makes better solutions possible but those have to be built first.

And of course we have the plebs out there with significant future wealth. And usually average Joe tends to use what the popular rich guys are using. So this will be a plus in the coming years. And also two years is just enough to let the hype fade and get the building done to prepare for the new hype.

Yep. Aber was ist die Lösung? Wir haben ja private Dienstleister, aber der Staat steht mal wieder im Weg.

Mir kann aber auch keiner erzÀhlen, dass nicht von vornherein klar war, das diese Systeme vom gesunden Bevölkerungswachstum leben und sonst kollabieren. Ich glaube die importierten Sozialschmarotzer sollten wir wieder rauswerfen, aber das Àndert nichts an dem eigentlichen Problem mit dem Systemdesign. Wird auf jeden Fall stressig in den nÀchsten Jahren.

Im not so sure about that. He might have an autistic streak. He’s is smart but that doesn’t mean he’s a genius. He is arguably among the best to get people to work together towards a common goal. I don’t know if that constitutes a genius.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Gm.

The human brain runs on something like 20 watts of power. Less than a lightbulb. How many calculations it can do per second is partially unknown, but based on various estimates over the years the processing power is generally believed to be something like one exaflop per second. Some estimates are lower in the petaflops, while others are some orders of magnitude higher. Obviously “software” matters too, not just raw processing ability. The programming of the processor ensures that the processing capability is used efficiently rather than wasted.

The top superconductors crossed the exaflop level within the past few years. However, they run on like 20 megawatts of power; a million times more power than the human brain. They’re extremely large and energy intensive.

As a result, datacenter processing capability reaches something akin to the processing capability of a human brain well before that level of ability can be installed in a human-sized robot with similar energy consumption levels as a human.

Now, robots can offload some of their processing to datacenters, but still at a relatively high cost per calculation for a while, and at the general bandwidth limit of whatever the best wireless rate is in a region at any given time.

For some calculation types, of course computers passed humans long ago. A basic math calculator, for example, beats the best humans at calculating mathematical formulas. But when we talk about human brain “calculations” what it means is that the brain is taking in enormous amounts of information (all five senses at high fidelity, plus other indirect senses like acceleration/balance and other inputs), calculating it to make sense of it, calculating all sorts of things to interact with the environment, and simultaneously running the processes related to sapient thought and general problem solving.

As a result, it’s far easier to get a robot to work on an assembly line more efficiently than a human, or to calculate an insane number of protein folding tests, and things like that, than it is for a robot to be able to operate as effectively as a human in the real world with countless unexpected hazards.

For example, imagine a hypothetical robot handyman. It can drive out to your house and fix any residential electrical, plumbing, or hvac issue, or help with various miscellaneous things (fix drywall, get something out of a tree, carry stuff out of your attic, etc), and then drive back to the station. This is a shockingly hard problem. First they need extremely advanced mechanical bodies. Second they need processors strong enough and cheap enough to safely operate in 3D space with all sorts of unexpected things happening around them (compared to a highly controlled manufacturing floor), now all of these skills, and interact with language.

So, AI can start helping us offload certain types of white collar remote work and expand medical breakthroughs before it can replace human level in-field skilled physical labor. And it can start helping with specific in-field tasks that require less programming, like a robot dog or robot butler to watch your property or come with the owner around town, listen to owner commands and carry some of them out, and follow basic rules when left alone, well before it can fully replace a human for many in-field things.

Anyway, that’s a general framework or napkin math to help think through the order of impacts that AI can have as it goes up orders of magnitude in power and efficiency in the coming years.

Taking your thoughts further this fits very nicely into the idea of a deflationary currency and the impacts on manufacturing and the economy.

AI and its applications are more efficient for specific tasks, basically being limited by processing speed and bandwidth as you already mentioned, but also data that is machine readable. At least for now more less limited to the realm of the digital. Machines will be very useful to manage large amounts of data and will help us to make the step from reducing large amounts of data to trends and qualitative insights hidden in the data.

Humans are magnificent in being able to perform a lot of things but are more error prone for repetitive tasks but magnificently versatile.

Deflationary environments help to lay off the humans and replace them with more efficient special purpose machines designed for that specific purpose. People are then freed to be placed in more productive positions.

This has quite a nice effect on the economy like reducing prices while increasing productivity but requires people to learn and grow (which is usually not preferred in democracies where people do decide their fate mostly based on their emotions)

The fiat system basically lives of keeping people in their respective jobs by locking in the current state of the economy and the production and keeping it there as long as possible. We also see this in our recent past, we do build on the shoulders of giants but we really have issues with innovating substantially, which is, in my opinion, a function of not having a sound currency.

Jap. Die Probleme so lange ignorieren bis sie zu groß werden. Ganz nach dem Zentralbank-Vorbild. Einfach so lange drucken bis die Blase platzt.

I need to see where we are going. And the people with the glasses are here.

Replying to Avatar @Lassmiranda21

Hm...

Zur Plandemie wurden 1,5m Mindestabstand von der Pozilei nachgemessen. Und noch viele andere sehr kranke Maßnahmen.

Aber Betonblöcken waren teilweise 6m von einander entfernt?

Wieso kann man eigentlich mit einem neuen BMW zu ein Massaker anrichten? Sind die nicht voll mit Assistenzsystemen? Manipulation? Und das macht der Google Doktor bei einem Leihwagen alleine?

Anschlag auf einen Weihnachtsmarkt von einem angeblichen AFD "Sympathisanten"? Warum sollte er dort einen Anschlag ausĂŒben?

Das Framing vom Staat ist aktuell einfach nur krass. Hier wird so eine hanebĂŒchende Story entwickelt. Nun soll auch noch X selber Schuld daran sein, dass es soweit kommen konnte. Sehr merkwĂŒrdig. Aber hey, Faeser wird das schon richten. Die Entwicklungen sind seit 2015 durchaus Bedenklich.

Die Antwort vom Staat? Wir brauchen einfach mehr Überwachung in der Bevölkerung. What? Es stand doch alles einsehbar im Internet und der Staat habt nichts unternommen.

Zeugen sind sogar an Behörden rangetreten. Wohingegen ein Rentner wegen einem Meme um 6 Uhr in der FrĂŒh von der Freiheit und Demokratie aus dem Bett geholt wird.

GlĂŒckwunsch

Parallel regt sich der Staat auf.

Wie kann man nur was anderes als die Ampel wollen. đŸ˜č

Mitleidsbeurkundungen mit ChatGPT erstellen. Das hat man mittlerweile in Berlin gelernt.

Das Thema wird gerade nach den Feiertagen gefĂŒhlt schon wieder heruntergespielt.

KĂŒmmern wir uns lieber um die Probleme von anderen LĂ€ndern.

Erstmal vor der eigenen TĂŒr kehren.

#Magdeburg đŸ•Żïž

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https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/magdeburg/magdeburg/anschlag-weihnachtsmarkt-ermittlungen-anzeigen-sicherheitskonzept-100.html

Naja also das Schema lĂ€uft ja wirklich bei jedem einzelnen Ereignis ab. Themen die fĂŒr das eigene Narrativ genutzt werden können, werden ausgeschlachtet; alles andere soweit wie möglich ignoriert. Wenn’s dann ein Thema wie in Magdeburg gibt welches nicht mehr ignoriert werden kann, werden die wildesten Stories zusammengekloppt.

FĂŒhlt sich an wie in einem schlechten Blockbuster mit einem ideologischen Skript von der zentralen Einheitspartei und vollkommen unfĂ€higen Schauspielern. Aber das Budget ist mehr als solide.

Ich denke aber die Parallelen bezĂŒglich der medialen Behandlung von Magdeburg und der „Pandemie“ sind da, wie du ja auch schon angeschnitten hattest. Es wird halt alles an der „richtigen“ Meinung ausgerichtet. Egal wie bescheuert das auch immer sein mag.