Avatar
Snapolino
5b380071ce7f87ea7e5c8e7fa42b8f433ff83fc7b3f9940f505eafbcfdde4897
I am a very sarcastic person, dont feel offended by it. BTC Only, i dont pay taxes, i grow my own food, i have my own electricity, own water source, i have my own animals. I will never comply with a Vax or digital ID or any other effort of the Gov to censor my free movement.

Bitcoin is getting boring :-( i so miss the days where it moved 30% up and down every hour...

Bitcoin got now so stable that it takes nearly 6 month to drop 30% or gain 60% ... :-(

Thats was an amazing time....

The US is trying to tax the hell out of Bitcoin minders.... If you are a miner , do not register with the Gov. If you are a miner prepare to move away from the US....

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/budget_fy2024.pdf

It is much better to do something and fail

than do nothing or say its impossible.

Who ever made this website..... thank you very much

https://sha256algorithm.com/

Bitcoin is perfect. Most people want to have a yield, but a yield always includes risk. The more yield you get, the higher the risk of total loss. Everything has a yield (negative or positive). Let's go through some examples of why Bitcoin is absolutely perfect:

You think Bonds/Treasuries bear low risk... hell no, always something can happen to your country, be it war, natural disaster, nuclear disaster, and so on....

You think Houses fully paid down bear low risk... hell no, always something can happen to your house, be it war, natural disaster, nuclear disaster, earthquakes, fire, maintenance work, and so on....

You think Bank accounts bear low risk... hell no, always something can happen to your Bank. Banks have, therefore, a negative return, not only because they provide a 0% interest rate, but a government can/will seize everything you have...

You think Art bears low risk... hell no, always something can happen to your beautiful art, already the cost for storage, difficulty for selling it, insurance cost.... and so on...

You think FIAT under your mattress is very low risk? Keep it there for 20 years and inflation eats it all away! Risk animals eat it... So all in all, you also have here a negative yield.

You think Gold under your mattress is very low risk? Your Government can seize it like they did before. If something happens, you can't leave your country with it. The Gov will always work against you! Plus, it inflates by 2% per year!

So, as we know now that everything, everywhere bears risk, we can conclude that you will inevitably lose purchasing power on all the aforementioned value stores except Bitcoin. Why?

Because on a 100-year timespan, I guarantee you Bitcoin is the only thing that does NOT depreciate in value. Everything else will depreciate in value, no matter how you try to protect yourself from it. Bitcoin is the future with the lowest risk.

Bitcoin has a yield, but no one is able to see it. People lose Bitcoin, and this makes yours more valuable. Some people will die and take it to their grave (yes, you can do that with Bitcoin). Continuous deflation makes one richer by not selling.

even more bad it was for thoses that play first person shooter like cs 1.0 ... i really dont know how many times i cleaned the mouse ball and inside the mouse the measureing wheels :-)

Replying to Avatar Snapolino

After 2036 the Bitcoin block reward will no longer play a role, the only thing that counts then is vbyte/sat fees.

With that information on mind we can do a simple calculation:

300 EH/s currently that support the network to fight for the approx. 6.4BTC.

so 300 EH / 6.4 BTC == 46.875 EH/BTC

In 2036 assuming the same distribution (mining pools and so)

300 EH / 0.4 BTC == 750.0 EH/BTC

So mining now till 2036 is ultra profitable if you do not need to sell BTC and can keep all more than 0.4 BTC per block you mine.

If you are a miner and you have to sell more than (6.4 BTC - 0.4BTC=) 6 BTC it means your BTC holdings decrease over time and you are already mining at a loss in satoshi terms. (This 6 BTC include all HW, maintenance, defects, electricity, infra, people, salarys, insurance , new miners, new hardware, advancements, etc.).

Every halving will make it much more (2x ) difficult for you to keep up and keep a positive mining to satoshi balance...

So in 2024 this will even go lower, meaning your budget per block mined has a maximum of 2.8 BTC in total cost!

So in my view BTC mining will without increase in efficiency plato out after 2026 ... At this point Miners are in a bubble territory (in satoshi terms) and have to sell more than they get...

All this leave anything related to USD out... This is purely based on mining and keeping as many sats as possible. None of this big mining pools will be able to compete with private small miners that use completely free electricity where ever they get that.

i posted about something similar but did not account for any USD ammount, i did try to put it in satoshi terms.... maybe you want to read it...

maybe i am wrong with it... but jeah... lets see what happens

#[2]

Did the FED stop reporting M2 Velocity??????? i have no update anymore and this is / would be by far the best indicator for hyperinflation or deflation.

My last update i get on tradingview is october 22 ...

the percentage show the optimal capacity to mine a block, optimal means for the ammount of space required having the highest possible transaction fees in.

If you sensor transactions, you do not include them means you do not use the optimum possible revenue for your miningpool/company.

I guess they comply with ofac or banned jpegs...

cool thank you very much for this answer. I asked this question on calculating the probability on a possible collision on sha256 on stack overflow (crypto or math, dont recall) and no one was able to answer it.

i read up now on the pidgeon hole principle (never did hear about it)....

Foundry USA the censorship pool

i disagree,

no big miner gets electricity for free, otherwise the power provider is at a loss no matter how you put it. Solar... who buys the pannels, cables, maintains it? same with all other you mentioned items.

Bitcoin is an abitrage to set a base fee globally on electricity.

Lets explain what i mean by that:

Country A has hydropower and sells 1kwh for 0.5c

Country B has nuclearpower and sells 1kwh for 0.2c

Country B will set the price global (the cheapest price) therefore will get every BTC miner. Country A will either stop with hydro, or has to reduce its price to 0.2 which means they are forced to get much more efficient. So all electricity prices will globally converge to a single global electricity price. When that is the case we then know how much 1 kwh/ is in satoshi terms.

Some country's that do NOT produce their own energy sufficiently enough will default (like switzerland who has a net negative and imports electricity).

You might ask why this will happen, it is because you can sent bitcoin globall and arbitrage the electricity price away in every country on every block (10min).

So what else does this lead to?

It will make it possible to set a fair price on every product on earth because every product on earth needs energy to produce.

- rice, seeding it has near 0 cost, rain lets it grow, so you have only the farming cost (energy used there)

- a machine with thousands of parts, will be very costly because so much energy was put into the product.

- cement, aluminium extremely expensive because huge ammounts of energy is used to produce them.

Additional benefits:

It makes useage of waste very very lucrative....

- Plastic waste can be converted via pyrolisis to gas and oil

So Bitcoin will first over the next 10-15 years arbitrage the electricity price in satoshi terms globally.

After that it will arbitrage every product to its true value in what it consumed in energy to produce