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curt finch
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on alby

Bitcoin is stuck between 110 and 112 and it's boring again

Replying to Avatar Jim Craddock

Shared this with my Facebook Normies:

Bitcoin is at a possible divergence point. These are interesting times. I encourage everyone of all generations to learn about it. People are beginning to realize it is the safest store of value. That's a step change in adoption. The hurdle rate for other companies is too high. They know their business will outperform other business if they keep their cash in bitcoin instead of the bank. If their best investment returns 10% or 20%, yearly, it isn't worth it compared to bitcoin. They really have no choice due to game theory, but they haven't quite got that far yet. I suppose maybe they have something up their sleeve, but I would bet on bureaucracy as what is slowing them down. I'd also point out that my favorite bad guy Elon just added to Tesla's holdings this last quarter.

This is a chart of how much bitcoin is owned by corporations, etfs, governments, and exchanges. They have over 3 million of the 16 or so million. All they are doing is buying. This is like land - they aren't making any more. This is digital property.

They have regulated it. That's acceptance. All those extra dollars they print that drive up prices? Bitcoin eats those. That's the easiest way to look at it. It will eat everything. Then we will transact in it or things anchored by it as base money.

Not investment advice. Everyone should educate themselves. That is part of the process of seeing the inevitability of it. Is 100 hours of your time on something that is really pinging your cognitive dissonance right now worth it? The entire system is changing. GenX has seen a lot of change. Now, realize that money is changing next just as we go into AI.

Everything is about to get weirder.

Show me evidence that Tesla has added Bitcoin holdings

Maybe Elizabeth Warren is right

Yes, coal continues to be used in Bitcoin mining, though its prevalence varies by region and is subject to ongoing debate.

Active Use of Coal in Bitcoin Mining

United States: In Pennsylvania, companies like Stronghold Digital Mining operate facilities that burn waste coal to power Bitcoin mining operations. While they argue this process helps remediate environmental damage from legacy coal waste, it still results in significant COโ‚‚ emissions .

Montana: The Hardin Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, was slated for closure but remained operational after Marathon Digital Holdings partnered with it for Bitcoin mining. This collaboration led to a substantial increase in the plant's COโ‚‚ emissions .

Kentucky and Indiana: Bitcoin mining has been linked to the continued operation of coal plants in these states. For instance, Blockware Solutions entered a long-term agreement with coal-fired plants in Kentucky, contributing to millions of tons of COโ‚‚ emissions annually .

Global Perspective

A United Nations study reported that, during 2020โ€“2021, coal accounted for approximately 45% of the energy used in Bitcoin mining globally. This reliance on coal contributes significantly to the carbon footprint of cryptocurrency mining .

Transition to Renewables

Despite these instances, there is a notable shift towards renewable energy in the Bitcoin mining industry. Recent data suggests that over 50% of Bitcoin's mining network now uses renewable energy sources such as hydroelectric, wind, and solar power .

In summary, while coal remains a source of energy for some Bitcoin mining operations, particularly in areas with existing coal infrastructure, the industry is gradually moving towards more sustainable energy sources.

Anything is possible but to me this seems very unlikely

I do see a decline in volatility since about 2022 early

Therefore I think the MV RV going up to a very high number is a low probability this time

Every time the reward for mining drops in half the importance of mining drops in half and so the four-year cycle becomes less of a thing and it is already very much not much of a thing

But you can see from the numbers that institutions are buying and individuals are selling

When the individuals stop selling, the long-term holders, who aren't holding, then it's going to shoot up to 150 pretty quickly

What you see in the graphs is that it went up to the 40s stay there for a few months went up to the '70s stayed there for 8 months went up to the hundreds essentially stayed there for so far 7 months.

Within a month or so it's probably going to go up to 150 and then stay there for 8 months

Rule one. Avoid crazy things like Bitcoin

Rule two. Wait until your ready to have kids

Rule three. Climb the corporate ladder

Julie and Amanda at John's birthday party

Up the nostril hairy arm shot

If you're worried about having kids I recommend you watch the movie Parenthood with Steve Martin in it because it will brighten you and also alleviate your fears

Perfect Austin weather

Hereโ€™s the updated side-by-side BTC cycle chart, now including power law dynamics, doubling time, and how highs/lows fit into long-term price modeling:

Feature 2020โ€“2021 Cycle 2022โ€“2025 Cycle

Cycle Start March 2020 (~$4K) November 2022 (~$15.5K)

Peak Price November 2021 (~$69K) March 2025 (~$109K, current high)

Duration to Peak ~20 months ~29 months (so far)

Total Gain from Bottom ~17x ~7x

Halving Date May 2020 April 2024

Structure Double top (April & Nov 2021) Single clean breakout (so far)

Top Characteristics High retail euphoria ETF-driven, institutional strength

Volume Profile High volatility, retail-driven More consistent, less frothy

Consolidation Behavior Choppy, blow-off tops Rounded tops, stair-step advances

Support Zones Weak after $69K crash $69K now a confirmed strong support

Momentum (TSI/RSI) Overshot with bearish divergence Moderate, rolling off highs

Macro Conditions Post-COVID stimulus, low rates Inflation drag, potential rate cuts

Adoption Events Tesla buys BTC, El Salvador Spot BTC ETFs, sovereign funds interest

Power Law Fit Overshot power law band at top Tracking well within upper band

Log Price Channel Topped above upper channel (~$69K) Near or slightly above midline (~$109K)

Doubling Pattern ~3โ€“6 months per double in late 2020 ~8โ€“10 months per double post-2023

Relative to Power Law Floor $4K vs $270) $15.5K vs $2.2K est.)

Implication Exuberant top = long mean reversion Controlled rise = higher sustainable base

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Power Law Context:

Bitcoin follows a power law growth curve, with log(price) ~ log(time)^ฮฑ.

2020โ€“21 cycle spiked above the power law upper bound โ€” unsustainable.

2022โ€“25 cycle is riding closer to the band, suggesting maturing adoption and slower exponential growth.

Doubling slowdown is expected as Bitcoin becomes more liquid, institutional, and widely held.

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Let me know if you'd like this in CSV, or visualized on a power law chart with the original Woobull-style bands.