There's 100T in bonds, 2T in Bitcoin and 20T in gold.

I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the next 5 years (or 10 years) we have 50T in bonds 20T in Bitcoin and 30T in gold.

Even if it's just a result of monetary premium re-focus, i.e bonds might be worth 100T in 2035 but in real purchasing power they're only worth 50T.

In other words there might not an actual be a huge capital shift but just the broader market refocusing attention/trust in harder assets. In other words, some people capital will just be left to evaporate.

This happened in the Weimar Republic. Bonds did evaporate but it took some years.

In the Weimar Republic, the bond market didn’t collapse all at once through mass selling. Instead, people continued to hold onto their marks and government bonds for a long time, trusting that stability would return. At first, people kept believing in bonds and marks — even through 10–20% inflation — hoping the situation was temporary. It wasn't until trust in the currency completely evaporated, after repeated devaluations and uncontrollable inflation, that the real value of those assets vanished. The destruction was gradual at first, then sudden, as confidence drained away and hard assets like gold and land absorbed the fleeing monetary premium.

Now, I don't think this will probably happen again in the same way, in such a huge collapse. Most likely we will have a soft reset, and a permanent Bitcoin integration into the current financial system, just bringing harder assets to the current system in many different ways.

#bitcoin #macro #economics

Oh but worry not, bond holders are doomed in the US too eventually :D

Most people have very little philosophy, hierarchal moral values, or knowledge of history. The real signal is (and probably always was) very little and concentrated.

On the other hand, this means that we can make things a little bit better, anywhere, and that'll already be revolutionary.

We definitely have the tools for a better world.

More and more I'm coming to the conclusion that the real problem all along was that there was no money.

We hadn't found/invented money yet. We thought we had but we didn't.

It's like saying that we had invented medicine in the 15th century, where for example they bled people to cure them. It looked like medicine, they called it medicine (at the time) but it really wasn't.

We hadn't found money yet. But now we have.

#bitcoin

What do you think about the 4 Cardinal Virtues?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardinal_virtues

#philosophy #asknostr

RN will look and already looks like something from the last century.

The real opposition (or alternative) is much smarter than this and is quietly stacking sats and using Nostr. :)

They do it everywhere. This "democracy" system only real works in Switzerland. The judicial system is and always was a weapon everywhere (except Switzerland). There's no definition/resolution in law (through referendums), i.e the people don't define exactly what the law/incentives are, so the judicial is basically another group of very powerful Statist weapon, to be used by the actors of the time. It was always like this.

The only thing is that now we have revolutionary tools.

The repercussions of their actions will live in the most prepared, smart and organized of oppositions (in general of course), with the best of tools. I think RN is a joke to what will come in the next decades. But they'll use the same weapons always.

These people have no idea what Bitcoin and Nostr will create. But it'll include them. They'll be talked about. In due time of course. As a form of historical education of what the problems were.

This is just fuel for the opposition. Hitler used the Nuremberg trials as media fuel. The Nuremberg trials propelled Hitler.

History is constantly repeating itself. Only the tools are improved. And the tools have never been so powerful.

This is why we need those eco-friendly tanks for war with Russia.

And Schnell. :D

I love Eric Fromm. He also has an incredible book called the Art of Loving.

This man and Carl Jung are missing in society right now.

Thanks for sharing!

If they buy 50% Bitcoin then it's a great move.

If it's only gold then it's only 2d chess. :D

I think Bitbonds will be the default bond mechanism in the future. The US will pave the way.

Sure, the polity that is most important to one will change it's name and it drastically depends on the person. The current nation state is not the most important polity for a lot of people because technology is competing with it.

But I'm not saying that I want that to happen or not. I personally certainly don't need or live as if I needed the nation state. I'm a voluntaryist at heart, I live as if there were no states. In essence I personally don't care about any of these nation states.

But that doesn't mean it's not important for millions of people, that there's no real politik for millions of people that know zero about this. For most people the nation state is and will be the most important polity in existence. We can't ignore this fact and that's mostly what I'm referring to.

And in that sense, the US is revolutionizing the nation state arena.

I would recommend people take a look at Switzerland's example. The trade agreements are incredibly precise and protectionism was and is always a thing. Always. And also refer to Ha Joon Chang's Kicking Up the Ladder.

I agree global free market trade is and should be an ideal but it will always be an ideal as long as everybody is NOT on the same boat. In other words, as long as you don't have a libertarian paradises everywhere, global free trade doesn't work. Global free trade will only work if ALL countries are libertarian paradises. And we're absolutely incredibly far from that.

Eventually I will create more content about this. Because the examples are many and people don't know about them.

What Trump is doing will be replicated by all the countries that will want to be meaningful in the future.

Manufacturing base, self-sufficiency, Bitcoin, 21st century financial mechanisms (Bitcoin reserve, potentially Bitcoin bonds).

This is the model for the 21st century nation state. The formula is out for the world.

In 4 years, they'll conclude they'll need another 4 years of the formula, and in 8 years the world will be educated again.

Free trade never worked. It was always an ideology of the elites. Ha-Joon Chang has a great book about it, Kicking Up The Ladder.

Free trade only benefits the global elites. The nation state is a good invention, it just needs an upgrade.

Self-sufficiency, circular economies, sovereignty is the real wealth. We need to produce the things that we use. We don't need cheap things, we need to control our lives. The US will show the direction.

#bitcoin #politics #nationstate #geopolitics

I think the greatest test is going to be if Bitcoin completely crashes with the upcoming liquidity/debt crunch, recession, stock bear market, throughout 2025 or just holds.

If that decouple happens, and Bitcoin holds, that's a very strong signal. By holding I mean not going under 50k for example. That would already be pretty interesting for the markets I would say.

#bitcoin

When gold is priced at an absolute peak of something like 15k USD per oz there's going to be a scandal of some kind, some people not being able to be withdraw their gold, and that's when the gold rush ends.

I don't understand how people don't also see that there's fractional reserve in the gold market too...

#bitcoin #gold

Hayek did work for public universities all his life. But a great economist and very truthful what he’s saying.

Gold has been growing non stop since the 2000s. It was going down since 1980.

I think gold will explode and hit a top in the next 5 years or so, especially as/when the real estate market turns. Which we might be close.

And then eventually gold is also shown to be paper/manipulatable (I think this will be a faster collapse than real estate because gold is more manipulatable/obscure than real estate, it'll be faster for people to understand that it's not the best) and then Bitcoin starts taking more capital (because it is the best, as we know :))

I think eventually all roads lead to Bitcoin but most people only learn the hard way so it takes a bit of time.

Yeah, the reality is this is the only truly global, scarce, divisible and uncensorable store of value and medium of exchange in the world.

That's the reality. The rest are really just approximations, dreams and hopes.

Yes, that would be a good roughly description of myself also to be honest with you. ahah :)