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Chris Liss
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posting without conscience things in which most people are not interested | www.chrisliss.com

Djokovic vs Medvedev US Open final — one guy banned for not injecting Pfizer’s chemicals and the other for an accident of birth. Worst nightmare for the WEF. Love to see it.

Would love to see this expire, but would be beyond shocked if they let it happen. nostr:note1uyntmcr8myvnxkdce3v87xzekxexs0n2vatrldmtkrnfqy8w2psqe97ql4

I would love to see this expire, but zero chance they let it. nostr:note1uyntmcr8myvnxkdce3v87xzekxexs0n2vatrldmtkrnfqy8w2psqe97ql4

Observations from Thursday Night’s NFL season opener: nostr:note19u4ep7qvmn85v96s6rkceelp9uk5hux4sya9ygve3azyurfqdvhq3elrkf

Ha, there really isn’t one that’s not obviously fringe.

For those of you in NFL Survivor Pools — if you want to understand the strategy behind them: nostr:note1eu5h87jjlmgx0acc827nye02l9gupl09gjryv55wzem9f0je9sfs4jm8es

Human progress is only possible due to heresy. And heresy is just an old word for disinformation.

You can no more eradicate disinformation from the internet than you can bacteria and viruses from the biosphere. Vibrant ecosystems require adaptation not sterilization.

https://chrisliss.substack.com/p/disinformation-part-2

I am sometimes in awe of the fact that there are people eating this way their whole lives who don’t have severe health problems.

Because it’s not only the airplane and airport, but think of what they stock in every CVS, every convenience store, all the fast-food chains. Those products still exist because people consume them. How do all the convenience store candy and chips and crackers and cookies aisles get cleared out and re-stocked. Millions must be eating it.

The flu or covid is small potatoes (even our metaphors are stuffed with carbs) — how is anyone still alive at all?

The track at the local college where I run 3x per week. All the ideas come to me on the walk home.

Zaps are going to be the new 10K BTC pizza in 10 years.

You’re gonna be like, holy shit I zapped that random guy 50 sats ($100) because he told a mildly funny joke!

Except you’ll be a billionaire, so you won’t care.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

“We should change Bitcoin now in a contentious way to fix the security budget” is basically the same tinkering mentality that central bankers have.

It begins with an overconfident assumption that they know fees won’t be sufficient in the future and that a certain “fix” is going to generate more fees. But some “fixes” could even backfire and create less fees, or introduce bugs, or damage the incentive structure.

The Bitcoin fee market a couple decades out will primarily be a function of adoption or lack thereof. In a world of eight billion people, only a couple hundred million can do an on chain transaction per year, or a bit more with maximal batching. The number of people who could do a monthly transaction is 1/12th of that number. In order to be concerned that bitcoin fees will be too low to prevent censorship in the future, we have to start with the assumption that not many people use bitcoin decades out.

Fedwire has about 100x the gross volume that Bitcoin currently does, with a similar number of transactions. What will Bitcoin’s fee market be if volumes go up 5x or 10x, let alone 50x or 100x? Who wants to raise their hand with a confident model of what bitcoin volumes will be in 2040?

What will someone pay to send a ten million dollar equivalent on chain settlement internationally? $100 in fees per million dollar settlement transaction would be .01%. $300 to get it in a quicker block would be 0.03%. That type of environment can generate tens of billions of dollars of fees annually. The fees that people pay to ship millions of dollars of gold long distances, or to perform a real estate transaction worth millions of dollars, are extremely high. Even if bitcoin is a fraction of that, it would be high by today’s standards. And in a world of billions of people, if nobody wants to pay $100 to send a million dollar settlement bearer asset transaction, then that’s a world where not many people use bitcoin period.

In some months the “security budget” concern trends. In other months, the “fees will be so high that only rich people can transact on chain” concern trends. These are so wildly contradictory and the fact that both are common concerns shows how little we know about the long term future.

I don’t think the fee market can be fixed by gimmicks. Either the network is desirable to use in a couple decades or it’s not. If 3 or 4 decades into bitcoin’s life it can’t generate significant settlement volumes, and gets easily censored due to low fees, then it’s just not a very desirable network at that point for one reason or another.

Some soft forks like covenants can be thoughtfully considered for scaling and fee density, and it’s good for smart developers to always be thinking about low risk improvements to the network that the node network and miners might have a high consensus positive view toward over time. But trying to rush VC-backed softforks, and using security budget FUD to push them, is pretty disingenuous imo.

Anyway, good morning.

It works for now, it’s not imminently going to stop working, we can’t predict the future with remotely the kind of specificity necessity, so why meddle? Because meddling makes them feel important. Central-banker mentality indeed!