You need to value the operating company separate from the Bitcoin. Once you know what the value of the operating company is, you’re looking for the price of a share of MSTR to be below the per share value of the company + the price of sats per share (the photo below will give you the current sats per share but remember this changes). If an opportunity presents itself again, my guess is that it will be around the approval/launch of the spot bitcoin ETFs and people sell MSTR for the ETF or just buy the ETF instead of MSTR and then it could get oversold.

nostr:note1qslzkzpw3d6mlu465f85acafyyg72m3ghu88cr9j6kwzqzeyexhsqqcgey

What’s happening? Is Primal about to launch a new update or something?

21K blocks until the Halving.

#Bitcoin cycle comparison

good morning nostr, stay humble and stack sats 🫡

Hi. Freezing in South Carolina.

#introductions

Apples messages on desktop because I work on desktop and need to know if my wife messages me. Zero exceptions on the phone though.

I did 3 things that had a distinct positive impact on my life:

1. Tune out most news

2. Disable most notifications and zero on phone.

3. Stop consuming content daily and only focus on one or two things I really care about. Occasionally I’ll peek but very limited.

It’s amazing how much better I felt when my mind was not as busy. nostr:note1dxdsv2f0cffufefwg3de3ean4rzy20frh9cgh4shg2hmj37dw4zs2gvjyd

What would it look like, if an emergent money was being monetized?

Often when I talk with academics or other high-IQ critics of bitcoin, it’s the volatility and seemingly speculative aspect of it that turns them off. It’s almost distasteful to them. They can get behind the idea of global open-source payments and so forth, “but that’s not why people buy it” they’ll say. “They buy it because they’re speculating. It’s too volatile for its own good.” Some aspect of them dislikes it in principle, almost *because* one can make money from it.

But a new decentralized money, including its own unit of account and liquidity, doesn’t just emerge as a multi-trillion dollar-equivalent network out of the box. In order to go from zero to trillions in market capitalization and liquidity, it needs upside volatility. And with upside volatility comes speculation, leverage, and downside volatility. Cycle after cycle, it’s priced like an option. At first it’s like a 0.1% chance that it succeeds in the long run. And then in the next cycle it’s like 1%. And then in the next cycle it’s like 5%, and so forth. So, early capital allocators that have seen a thing or two and know the high failure rate of new ideas will say, “This’ll probably fail, but if it doesn’t, both the investment gains and the macro implications will be enormous.” And then 15 years into it with a few more cycles under its belt, the probability of success looks less like a distant moonshot and more like a real possibility, and then eventually starts to look like the base case. In the beginning the question is, “how will this succeed?” and at later stages the question becomes, “what risks could prevent this from continuing to succeed?”

The process of buying bitcoin is often a speculative process at first, but then as people learn more, they often view it differently. Those that really want speculation will then continue down the pipeline of altcoins- there’s always some shiny new object to try to speculate on. On the other hand, those who begin viewing bitcoin as money, start to view it as a defensive or risk-off act to hold a piece of this liquid and globally decentralized network of value. One would feel too financially exposed not to.

My brother Dan wrote something beautiful about our little brother Andrew.

I miss you, Dewey. 💧

Apple, Google, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon must be anxious about the implications of the gift the OpenAI board gave to Microsoft.

My bitcoin allocation strategy is basically to hold as much as possible, while also minimizing the chance I would ever need to sell it at an in opportune time, and so that I can laugh at conferences when it is down 80%.

Humble admission. I think i might have only convinced 1-3 people ever to DCA bitcoin. I've piqued some curiousities with a lot of people and seen some lump-sum purchases but the idea of dollar-cost-averaging is still so difficult for people to commit to especially during the rut of the bear markets.

People have no problem apeing in during bull markets when emotions are high chasing hopes of immediate riches.

Just kinda makes me sad i haven't been able to help more people DCA but saving in bitcoin is a very emotional game with lots of ups and downs.

#stacksatsstayhumble