I said zero because you framed the time as between now and the election, with a hypothetical removal of Biden (which I think is very likely, yes). In this frame, I'm quite confident with "zero".
You don't just wake up one morning in Beijing and say, ok today we invade Taiwan because the old boy is out. It just doesn't work like that. It's not physically or logistically possible. Hence, zero probability.
Even bombing and destroying TSCM is not something you just "do". It would require full war preparations that take a lot longer than the time you've given. Because even if Xi used covert or black ops, everybody would know it had been him and the consequences would be immediate.
If you said in 5 years, I would give an extremely low but non-zero probability. And as we go further into the future and start to introduce unknowns like a hypothetical successor for Xi, or any other number of things, the odds may increase.
Specifically, I think the most important factor is the US developing its own SC capabilities at home. THAT would increase the odds of an attack or even an invasion drastically, but still long term.
There is zero chance that China invades Taiwan, regardless.
First, China (as in the dictator Xi and the CCP) doesn't need to invade Taiwan. It already controls its economy, all of its major companies, all of its elites and even a big chunk of the population's opinion.
Second, it would be a massive military defeat. People have the wrong impression about the military status quo in the Taiwan Straits and the sort of amphibious invasion the would be required. Taiwan is extremely defensible and the Taiwanese are extremely entreched. China could completely level the island with bombs, yes. But as the successive military failures of the US have proven, that doesn't put boots on the ground and create a new regime.
In short, China would basically bankrupt itself and get itself into a decades long mess for nothing.
For the communists, the best (the only) path is to keep the status quo as it is now, which allows them to agitate with the ultranationalist propaganda now and then, and gives them access to what really counts, namely Taiwan's economic and industrial apparatus, and to its political elites.
That's how you separate the grifter from the bitcoiner.
We need more P2P exchanges or we are fucked !
https://github.com/RoboSats/robosats nostr:note1dehge57lvzf94n5qj5vhwk7z8lnew45lzaj0ku9wvpfgcjs9pmeqmyfx98
Bisq does it for me.
I agree with all that. I recognize the situation of war in which el Salvador was, and how he fixed it. In fact, I think he managed to do it in a way that was a lot softer than I would have imagined it would require.
My disagreements with him are that he is not for a limited government but rather the opposite, and that his social views are squarely collectivist. The individual is subject to whatever "the majority" dictates. As interpreted by him, of course.
I have to say that the only thing that is a massive turnoff about using Nostr (on desktop) is how Alby can take a whole minute and sometimes even more just to load. It's really frustrating.
So far, he gets the benefit of the doubt from me because you can't clean up a place like el Salvador with an immaculate libertarian, pro-freedom program. It's just not possible. But the signs that he is simply another ultraconservative statist are quite glaring already.
The use he makes of Bitcoin is a novelty, but it's inherently contradictory to his policies and beliefs. When the "necessary evil" excuse runs out, either the pro-freedom tech that's Bitcoin will catch up to him and his policies will begin to fail, or he will get rid of Bitcoin when he fails to control it or suppress it.
V4V is not a model that allows anyone but the top of the top elite to make a living, and even that top of the top would be able to make orders of magnitude more otherwise.
Nostr can help content creators connect with consumers and get paid directly, but you still need a pricing mechanism that isn't one-sided like V4V is. The only way you can sell something is if you own it. That is, if you control the access to it. I think paywalls (zapwalls?) do exist on Nostr right?
Absolutely lesson *not* learned, you can bet your ass on that. If anything, what the German authorities are double-time thinking about right now is how to further destroy freedom of political association and speech even more than they have. In the name of social harmony and to prevent horrible attacks like that from ever happening -- because those who provoked the otherwise innocent murderer are the ones to blame.
No, they caught him on the spot. At first the cops did not register that he was actually stabbing people, so they did what they had been instructed to do: use the slightest opportunity to attack and arrest the "far right wing provocateurs" (that would be the people who were legally and peacefully assembled there exercising their freedom of speech and association).
They wouldn't have given a fuck about the attacker if he had not been armed and actually wounding people, let alone a cop. But in this case, they *had to* stop him.
I just heard that the cop that got stabbed in the neck by a Muslim terrorist in Mannheim Germany a few weeks ago actually died.
Yeah, that was the event in which a practitioner of the Religion of Peace stabbed several people in a street booth belonging to a right wing party known for their opposition to unbridled immigration and the islamization of Germany. The cops were right there... watching them, not any potential attacker, and when they reacted after several people had already been stabbed, they actually attacked the defenders, allowing the terrorist to fatally stab one of the same cops, who ended up dying.
No further comment.
Initially I was OK with the lack of a "boost" button in Coracle. But quote-commenting without the comment is just not a functional replacement. nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qg6waehxw309ac8junpd45kgtnxd9shg6npvchxxmmd9uq3camnwvaz7tmgdajxccn0vshxxmmjv93kcefww3hk7mrn9uqsuamnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dshsqgyhcu9ygdn2v56uz3dnx0uh865xmlwz675emfsccsxxguz6mx8ryggtgu24
Andorra -- get some bear-grade pepper spray and a couple of extensible batons, both are basic fundamental rights that happen to be illegal south of the border.
I think the one who needs severe brain deworming must be you, because they worms are making you see and read stuff that I didn't made the slightest mention of, such as US partisan politics. I recommend a generous splash of bleach with your regular meals.
I bet you behind the scenes the deal was "Look, take this deal, we have introduced discounts so you don't pay so much in reality. If you don't take this deal, when the left wins it'll be much worse".