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Pleb34
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#Nostr only #Bitcoin only

Every day. Sam Harris, hands down the best IMO.

Replying to Avatar less

An update on *liquidity* flows...

OBSERVATION #1: US NET LIQUIDITY (top half of chart) continues to be generally rangebound (chopping sideways: crab-like) since all the way back in 2021!

OPINION #1: US-based risk assets tend to follow US net liquidity over time. Based on this data, I would continue to expect choppy sideways (crab-like) price action for US mid cap, small cap, and micro cap stocks until the trend changes. -- If these equities make overly bearish or overly bullish moves in the short-term, one could consider making a short-term contrarian trade. 🦀

OBSERVATION #2: GLOBAL M2 MONEY SUPPLY (bottom half of chart) has officially broken out to the upside of its three-year choppy sideways range, and is resuming its longer term trend ever up-and-to-the-right. This longer term trend will continue until the dollar dies (decades from now).

OPINION #2: In the near-term, this resumption of increasing global M2 money supply is bullish for global assets... currently including megacap technology stocks and, of course, bitcoin. Based on past precedent, I continue to expect weak bitcoin price action throughout the month of August, giving HODLers a beautiful opportunity to stack relatively cheap sats in the setting of rising global M2. -- I do not believe this bargain will go unnoticed for much longer, with the next major bitcoin bull market beginning sometime between September and December of 2024, and probably lasting until 4Q of 2025.

Hope this helps. Cheers #nostr friends.

Love these updates!

Replying to Avatar walker

Want to understand how inflation impacts your purchasing power?

Let's look at The New Yorker, which publishes the price of each copy right on the front of the magazine.

1925: 15 cents

2024: $8.99

What the heck happened to make The New Yorker so much more expensive?

It's important to understand that technology is naturally DEFLATIONARY.

Everything should be getting cheaper over time, including The New Yorker.

Think about it: printing, writing, & editing technology has improved tremendously since 1925.

So, why is the magazine more expensive now?

From 1925 to 1971, The New Yorker increased in price from 15 cents to 50 cents, an increase of 233.33%.

That's pretty dramatic, but not THAT bad...

But from 1971 to 2024, price increased from 50 cents to $8.99, an increase of 1698%.

So, WTF happened in 1971?

In 1971, Richard Nixon "temporarily" suspended the convertibility of dollars to gold, ending the Gold Standard.

This meant that the Federal Reserve could now print dollars out of thin air without restriction.

Increasing the money supply by creating new money out of thin air is literally "inflation."

"Prices rising" is the result of inflation.

When more monetary units are created, the purchasing power of the monetary units that already exist decreases.

When the government/central bank prints money out of thin air, they are STEALING your purchasing power.

Here's The New Yorker over a few decades:

1971: $0.50

1980: $1.00

1990: $1.75

2000: $3.00

The magazine did not become more valuable, our MONEY became LESS valuable.

https://m.primal.net/KEpn.webp

https://m.primal.net/KEpo.webp

https://m.primal.net/KEpr.webp

https://m.primal.net/KEps.webp

By looking at this example of The New Yorker, which cost 15 cents in 1925 and costs $8.99 today, we see that the U.S. dollar has lost approximately 98.33% of its purchasing power in less than 100 years.

This is what happens when you print money out of thin air...

When money is controlled by the State, you are powerless to stop the destruction of your purchasing power.

Technology should be making everything LESS expensive over time, but even something as simple as a magazine gets more and more expensive over time.

So, what can you do to protect yourself from the government/central bank printing money out of thin air and destroying your purchasing power?

Study #Bitcoin with nostr:npub10qrssqjsydd38j8mv7h27dq0ynpns3djgu88mhr7cr2qcqrgyezspkxqj8

There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin and no government or central bank can print more.

The majority of money supply increase since 1925 is not through “printing”. It is through the process of loan creation by banks.

nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a Let’s say the economy (GDP) is represented this year by the harvesting of 10 apples, and that is the whole economy. Let’s say that there are $10 total in circulation. In this case, each Apple would be worth about $1.

Let’s say there was some technological advancement and the economy was able to harvest 40 Apples in the next year. Let’s also say there are $20 in circulation in the next year. Now, each Apple is only worth about $0.50 each.

Money in circulation is generally correlated with GDP of course (money created through bank loans and central bank money “printing”, generally goes up with GDP growth) but in theory they are independent of each other.

So we had monetary inflation of 100%, but the general price level DROPPED by 50%. The actual economy is infinitely more complex of course but I think this explains the general idea.

In other words there can be positive monetary inflation and a general price decline IF the GDP increase is higher than the monetary inflation.

It doesn’t happen often but when GDP growth is greater than “monetary inflation” there is usually a general price DECREASE , right?

Sending false communication is a crime? I guess Nazir should be prosecuted for his false tweet then.