On this Elon/Trump talk, Trump just said ā€œwe would have no inflationā€ if not for Biden. This is false.

I think it’s important to clarify that there *was* massive inflation during Trump’s administration.

From January 2017 to January 2021, the M2 money supply increased from ~$13.3 trillion to ~$19.4 trillion by January 2021.

That’s an INFLATION of ~$6.1 trillion, or ~45%.

There is a LAG between monetary inflation and general price increases throughout the economy, and price increases do not happen uniformly (look up the Cantillon Effect).

To clarify for the partisans out there: this is NOT an attempt to make excuses for Biden or to say that the monetary and fiscal policies under Biden are good; they are not good.

The point is that it is false to say ā€œthere was no inflationā€ under Trump.

Monetary inflation *is* inflation.

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Discussion

Yes. The belief that conservative parties are good economic managers is a lie. They are all playing Keynesian games.

The show must go on.

Exactly what I was thinking.

Yes, it was the covud stimulus package, and that was under Trump.

We need to stop using CPI for inflation and just look at money supply growth.

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Also Musk keeps saying that reigning in gov spending will solve it. The problem is much deeper than that.

Says the guy who exists on NASA contracts and EV tax credits.

Yea, there are few people closer to the money printer than Musk

I think that alone should be enough to temporarily dismiss his honesty about Bitcoin.

Zoom out further, gotta add Bush and Obama in there too…all of them.

Yes, printing money out of thin air has bipartisan consensus.

I keep wishing they’d take the next logical step and talk about THE SOLUTION!

BITCOIN is the way! They just don’t get there…

Could it be that Clinton / Gingrich are the best American political tandem since 1971?

I wrote long-form articles anticipating inflation before it happened based on the lagged outcome from the fiscal/monetary impulse, and then called for a period of disinflation from around the top (but still with structural inflationary pressures thereafter, which I continue to monitor).

Regarding macro, I got some things right or wrong, and sometimes had to pivot as new information or analysis compiled as we all have to do, but inflation is the key thing my analysis absolutely nailed. It's part of what 10'x my audience.

And a key reason for that was because I was non-partisan and non-biased in my analysis. During the Trump administration I began calling for inflation with a lag, and then during the early Biden administration I continued to call for it as it materialized, until the conditions for it began to ease.

A rapid growth in money supply is a leading indicator for a rapid growth in aggregate prices, and that started under Trump and continued under Biden. I was Monetarist and Austrian in my analysis, not Democratic or Republican.

Walker is largely correct, because Monetarists and Austrians are largely correct. Politics aside.

The reason I say that "nothing stops this train" is because 80-90% of the deficits are election-independent. If they were mostly election-dependent, then the train would be stoppable, and I wouldn't make the memes.

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This is objectively and macroeconomically correct.

I’m going to frame this and put it on my wall šŸ«‚

Too much dollars chasing too few goods

Exactly. The LAG allows Trump to blame Biden, but most of the of inflation under Biden was caused by Fed monetization while Trump was President.

However, monetary inflation does NOT cause general price increases IF growth in GDP is equal to or more than the monetary inflation.

So, if Trump had spent that money on infrastructure, rather than tax breaks for the rich and PPP loans, current price inflation wouldn't be as bad.

I think so.

The lag makes sense to me. Can you explain why GDP growth prevents price increase? Or link an article or something?

nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a Let’s say the economy (GDP) is represented this year by the harvesting of 10 apples, and that is the whole economy. Let’s say that there are $10 total in circulation. In this case, each Apple would be worth about $1.

Let’s say there was some technological advancement and the economy was able to harvest 40 Apples in the next year. Let’s also say there are $20 in circulation in the next year. Now, each Apple is only worth about $0.50 each.

Money in circulation is generally correlated with GDP of course (money created through bank loans and central bank money ā€œprintingā€, generally goes up with GDP growth) but in theory they are independent of each other.

So we had monetary inflation of 100%, but the general price level DROPPED by 50%. The actual economy is infinitely more complex of course but I think this explains the general idea.

Agreed, thanks!!

Why fact check Donald Trump? Just assume every single word is a lie, and go from there.

One hundred thousand percent...

Like inflation.

Yes, Trump was even bad even before the covid response. Both sides need the money printer brrrrring, neither side wants smaller government.

tl;dr āž”ļø study Austrian Economics with nostr:npub10qrssqjsydd38j8mv7h27dq0ynpns3djgu88mhr7cr2qcqrgyezspkxqj8

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLQVlIVuMPXLY08XgLUdnknB4B28WLmG-z&si=AR3GjqlQcgFEI6Re

Will the last 2 lessons be landing soon nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u ?

Yes! Thank you for your patience. Been hitting the Bitcoin Talk episodes hard…

The guy is a pathological liar and career scammer.

It's good people are asking the right questions and finally taking notice.

Would have been the same with both of them

Bringing Community Notes to Nostr šŸ˜’

Important factor that people should understand is that bank reserves is not money creation in the real economy. That comes from a function of commercial bank lending activity, or fiscal spending

In spring 2020, I bought dozens of $10 trillion Zimbabwe notes and gave them away to friends - hoping to teach them about the perils of fiat. Today, those notes are up over 400% on eBay and a far better store of value than the dollar.

I remember Trump, Mnuchin, J-Pow, Kashkari, et al diluting/deleting dollar holders' purchasing power back then and will never forgive them.

Inflation is theft.

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SĆ­

We're just getting started. #Bitcoin

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Correct. Caveat M2 FRED report on economy is only slightly better than Pfizer's vaccine efficacy report.

Inflation is always up and to the right. Doesn’t matter who the president is..

Well maybe not. Maybe he could have signed executive orders to stop congress raising the debt ceiling or something. That oughta do it

I'm not from your country but does the president answer to congress and not the other way round. You know, like a civilized country.

Well the Prime Minister certainly has a big input into what is introduced in parliament through his cabinet

The prime minister can introduce whatever he likes. So what. I think you haven't understood democracy.

Veto overrides are relatively rare in U.S. history. Since the founding of the country, Presidents have issued over 2,500 vetoes, and Congress has overridden fewer than ten percent of them. Here are a few key points:

1. **Total Vetoes**: As of now, there have been about 2,584 presidential vetoes.

2. **Successful Overrides**: Out of those, only around 112 vetoes have been successfully overridden by Congress.

3. **Success Rate**: This means that Congress has overridden about 4-5% of all presidential vetoes.

4. **Historical Examples**: Notable veto overrides include Congress overriding President Gerald Ford's veto of the Freedom of Information Act amendments in 1974 and Congress overriding President George W. Bush's veto of the Water Resources Development Act in 2007.

In summary, achieving a two-thirds majority to override a veto is difficult and rare, requiring significant bipartisan support.

So instead of a presidential executive order to keep the debt ceiling you want a presidential veto from raising it? Is that possible?

Yes

Point taken. But expansion of M2 is not the same as inflation.

It sure can lead to one, but a health economy expands M2 as it grows

Nah M2 expansions is inflation

Wait where is the "Trump good, Biden bad" message that the cointards are pining for.

Yup. As a bystander, i think trump’s announcement of his standpoints have gotten much more neutral and sensible e.g. on abortion and education.

But as a politician, he still conveys certain messages in an (intentionally) extreme manner. Probably needs to continue brainwashing people using exaggerated statements like above.

I see so much willful ignorance around this point it drives me nuts. You could show Trump supporters M2 with his presidency highlighted and they still wouldn't accept it.

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Of course the monetary inflation was high under Trump as well, but the combination with failed energy politic and overregulation speed up the consumer prices

True but he Got played on the covid scam. He shut down the country and had to print.

What in the M2 between 2017 and 2020 ?

from 13T to 15 T, still pretty bad.

Yes he fucked up.

But I would say to defend him that was probably due to tax cuts. I personally support tax cuts funded by the money printer.

The ultimate scam is trillions of funding to friends of.the regime funded by money printer

Only BTC fixes this…

šŸ’Æ thanks for calling out BS.

In gold terms they did somehow manage to hold the dollar value pretty stable. But that's over since about 2020.

You're right, there are a few things to consider.

It doesn't matter who becomes president of the United States, However in order to have "deflation" or reduce "inflation" one of the only key metrics that can have a major impact on "price" is energy costs.

Reduce energy costs and the cost of living goes down, and the standard of living goes up.

All of these "climate" "activists" that want to dismantle the fossil fuel industry and cripple our current energy supply chain without building the new one are retarded and are a part of the woke mind virus anti-human death cult trying to kill everyone through authoritarian control policy and want to destroy us all through suicidal empathy.

End the FED.

End fiat monetary printing.

End the control of the Jewish owned central banks.

You had me at Trump just said + false, but thanks for the explanation anyway.

Yeah, seemed odd he's claiming he will stop it but didn't when he was in office. I didn't hear the full thing, just summary notes from: https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/1823219838367465643

Agreed. But had the leftist Governors not enslaved their populations over a virus merely 99.9% survive, things would have been a hellluva lot better as far as many states go.

We in Michigan took MILLIONS to Indiana, Florida, etc; to get some freedom.

I drove to Florida 5X’s during the Bullshit (because I would not wear their slave mask to fly).

All politicians fib, lie, embellish.

As a libertarian I’d much rather have a Rand Paul or Thomas Massie, but I’ll take 3/4 or 1/2 a loaf…

Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of monetary policy could have told you inflation was on the way as soon as politicians started talking about stimulus. Especially at a time when the global amount of goods being produced was falling due to the lockdown.

Biden just doubled down on Trumps failed policies. Not unlike Hoover and FDR.

Yup, doesn't matter who is in charge of the money printer. At this point, whoever it is will keep printing to keep the fiat system afloat.