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Kane McGukin
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#Bitcoin + Monetary Innovation. My opinions are my own and not financial advice. Navigating Bitcoin’s Noise 🎙️http://apple.co/3wFbiiq
Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Musk’s Twitter/X has recently lost a lot of big advertisers after some seeming endorsements that Musk made on some anti-Semitic posts.

Do I think Musk is anti-Semitic? No. I just think he is a cuck, frankly.

Like, he will say one thing if the wind is blowing that direction, and then say the other thing if the wind starts to blow otherwise.

He cares what Xi Jinping thinks which is pretty consistent, and cares about the political tide in the US which blows back and forth. His recent anti-Semitic confirmations were likely just an instance of him leaning too quickly in one way, and being caught out on it. He tried to be vague but it didn’t work. And then he backpedaled.

Meanwhile, Musk also actively caters to leaders of countries that request (and receive) the most content takedown requests on Twitter/X, like Modi and Erdogan, as long as they are potential markets for SpaceX and Tesla. Under the leadership of Musk, Twitter/X statistically agrees to government takedown requests for content at a much higher rate than the company previously did. It’s just mostly outside of the US now, so all of our domestic discourse is about freedom.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/katherinehamilton/2023/04/27/twitter-has-complied-with-almost-every-government-request-for-censorship-since-musk-took-over-report-finds/

Musk previously catered culturally more to woke folks, like in 2021 when he said Tesla would resume accepting bitcoin payments only when bitcoin was over 50% “clean”. He needed those ESG vibes back then. But now that the woke trend turned into a based trend, he shifted to ride more on that one instead. He posts way less about the environment and way more about socio-cultural issues now.

Musk is likely not dumb/small enough to be personally against any particular ethnicity or religion of people as a group. He clearly thinks bigger and more pragmatically than that.

Instead, he is just trying to stick his finger in the air, measure the winds, and lean in any momentum direction culturally.

Meanwhile the large corporate advertisers like Apple and Disney advertisers who dropped Twitter/X for advertising are also doing similar. They are pulling back in the heat of the moment to gauge public perception, and then will move forward slowly based on polls and research. It’s the same vibe as when they put up rainbow flags on their domestic Twitter/X accounts but then of course don’t dare do the same for their Middle East accounts. Region by region polling and brand management. Never genuine, always calculated.

Anyway, good morning.

Musk plays the game for himself.

Apple, Disney, the BIS and all other corporate giants play the game to the lowest common denominator because there is a ton of vig to be had there.

Said another way. Musk usually takes the hard road and pulls out all the marketing opportunities. He enjoys the game of cat and mouse and knows how to execute in a high risk/high reward environment. He’s also good at suckering billionaires who can’t afford to look bad so they bring in their friends and new money when the outlook isn’t looking so good; just to save face.

Disney/Apple, etc. take the easiest road possible (marketing to the masses) because they know little effort is required for easy profits and extremely high margins. Herding sheep isn’t exactly tough and a very profitable business in the digital age. Plus, it’s reliable and repeatable when the narrative changes. There are just so many new ways to spin up easy profits when dealing with the lowest common denominator.

Replying to Avatar ODELL

👀

You feel like you can trust him on Monday, but realize you can’t by Friday.

Anyone confused or wishing to gain a better understanding, read:

Daniel

Hosea

Joel

In that order. Seek and practice the wisdom of proverbs and all will be good. All will make sense.

A structural market change not seen in decades is upon us. Here's why…

After WWII and until 1981, we lived in a long vol environment.

This forced capital to be allocated strategically as rates were rising.

In an inflationary system, this is a "normal" market.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

After 1981 as rates fell, short vol strategies and projects that didn't make sense became popular.

This brought on derivative games and private investment games of hot potato...

Place your bets, just don't be left holding the bag.

Post 2000, we entered into a deflationary environment.

After 41 years, we're now entering back into a long vol environment.

The ramifications are drastic for short vol strategies, projects, and deals that don't make economic sense.

Most of us don’t know who these people are until we see their net worth went from $500k to $50 million in less than 5 years, on a $200k gov’t salary.

The. We start asking questions.

Proof that people will believe anything.

The best home schooling we can do… 👇👇.

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCjMxDfsnqjDvJNCjeXguQpsdX6WYe-Bo&feature=shared

It’s covered in Wisdom lessons 18-24.

Lessons 18 and 21 are A++. This is absolutely what the 🌎 needs at this moment.

The next generation is who we should be preparing.

Inflation = currency debasement. As debasement speeds up so does inflation.

An obscure property bought in 1992 for $100k, now = $498k; 398%/31yrs = 12.8% inflation.

Gold: 350 in 1992 & 1,964 today = 461%/31 yrs = 14.88%.

Little used objects of value prove what inflation is.

https://x.com/thomas_fahrer/status/1724350498793550119?s=46&t=BCZ86Q6VE35kiDHSK1Vf6w

Data displayed as price is the signal, not headlines.

Price is the signal because of the data that makes it up. Headlines are emotional responses to the reality price is conveying.

Grab an IBD subscription. There are some fallacies to “high PEs”. A lot of the work behind IBD was effectively Jesse Livermore’s pyramiding strategy.

If you look at PEs in a vacuum you would and will miss every one of the greatest companies on earth because they will *always* look grossly expensive by this term.

Price action is the signal.