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techfeudalist
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Blessed by tech; working to bring the benefits to everyone. Freedom, incorruptible money, privacy.

Actually, I was wrong… RFK Jr is older. I hope I look like him when I’m his age. 🤯

Hotez and RFK Jr are the same age. To whom should I listen for health advice?

My mental model is that bitcoin is following the standard “s curve” that describes the adoption of new technologies. You can see below, three phases.

The first phase is incubation where the bugs get worked out and technology becomes easier to use.

The second phase is the accelerating adoption as network effects compound.

The third phase is the plateau where the technology is ubiquitous and stable.

My personal guess is that this bull cycle will be the inflection point and the rate of adoption will accelerate.

If I’m right, we’ll see a price closer to $500k in ~18 months. It will be a price higher than most of us are expecting because we’re used to the current rate of adoption and not an accelerating rate.

Remember, no matter how high the price goes, there’s no point in trying to time the market. Any bitcoin you sell, you’ll probably never get back so whatever you buy must be worth it.

Just finished four. I felt sluggish the first few day but felt my energy return on day three. Stay active and away from food. Good luck! 😀

I looked on Maps and it warns that there are tolls on the way to Moscow. That $6 billion might help defray fees for the convoy. 😀

It just seems like a suicide mission. Moscow is a long drive from Rostov and, to my knowledge, Wagner doesn’t have an air force and could be sitting ducks.

This is wild. At first I was wondering whether it was just a big distraction for some purpose. Now I don’t think so. Pulling troops out of Ukraine to capture Russian cities definitely helps Ukraine.

Fascinating 🍿

Some bitcoiner companies attached to this. Hopefully they weren’t affected. 🤞

Someone should do a multi-institutional custody solution with custodians in multiple jurisdictions to avoid collusion.

What combination would be the most resistant to collusion?

USA - China - India?

Singapore - Russia - Canada?

???

I’m personally betting on a monster inflationary spike after the upcoming deflationary crunch.

The Fed seems set on higher for longer. My view is that they will only reverse when something big breaks (don’t fight the Fed).

These higher rates are causing corporate bankruptcies, stress on bank lending, etc which will reduce the supply of goods and services.

Higher rates are also injecting a ton of fresh cash into the system through the Fed’s reverse repos and the govt’s accelerating fiscal deficits as interest rates stay higher for longer.

Lower supply of goods and services and higher money supply should goose CPI when the Fed reverses.

So far it seems the US Treasury has been refilling its TGA from the short end of the curve, which is positive for short-term market liquidity but at higher interest rates and worse long-term fiscal deficits.

The US seems to be in a classic debt spiral and can no longer pay for interest and entitlement payments out of tax revenues.

Interesting to see Yellen last week acknowledge the gradual decline in the dollar's share of global reserves. Also interesting to see BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF filing. I’m betting it will be approved because of the new institutional bitcoin exchange backed by Schwab, Fidelity, and Citadel.

While high inflation and institutional adoption are positive for bitcoin’s price, sadly most investors will be lured by corporate marketing and convenience into buying paper bitcoin and giving up their independence and privacy.

Tell your friends and family not to take the bait. Stay sovereign. Use multi-institutional custody solutions if they are unable to take self custody.

Hollywood pretends that it doesn’t know why their woke movies are bombing. This funny article blames the failure on moviegoers just not liking originals anymore. 😂

They’ll figure it out eventually. I hated to delete our Disney+ membership, but I couldn’t trust Disney anymore. I’d pay double to just have Disneys catalog of shows prior to 2015.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/elemental-box-office-debacle-pixar-bombs-1235518578/

“The nine most terrifying words in the English language are "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help."

- Ronald Reagan

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/schumer-call-hands-deck-approach-regulating-ai-rcna90193