b1
Nontoxic Maxi
b118b762849028a3b5ed7465eb7846b7d6a1ccf3fe65c7903ba1f16e926c0fdd
Replying to Avatar HODL

Thought experiment.

Option # 1

Let’s say you have 10 bitcoin and we hit 2 million in the next few years.

You’re tempted so you sell it for 20 million dollars.

After taxes you’re be left with 16MM.

Which you use to comfortably generate 1.2MM a year in the tradfi markets.

So you take the money and retire.

Bitcoin crashes 60% back to 800k.

For a few years you feel like a genius. You enjoy your new rich person lifestyle.

You even buy back a few bitcoin. 2 to be exact. 20% of what you used to have.

Then bitcoin rises over the next decade to be worth 50 million per coin.

You’re worth 120 million now. And you decide to sell a little over half a coin and upgrade your lifestyle again to be able to generate an additional 2 million a year.

You’re now on paper worth 120 million, you generate 3.2 million a year (266k a month) and you’ve been largely stress free for the last decade.

Your kids will inherit roughly 1.62 bitcoin from you upon your death.

You have some level of regret about not hodling through, but you’ve been largely stress free and the mental health benefit was worth it in your mind.

Vs.

Option # 2

You have the same 10 bitcoin but you Hodl them.

Your stress levels are persistently higher.

You also decide to retire when Bitcoin hits 2 mil, but you decide to do so in bitcoin terms.

Your plan is to sell a little bitcoin as needed in order to fund your lifestyle.

This is roughly 1-3 million sats a month. Depending on bitcoin price.

Over the course of 10 years you end up selling or spending 2.4 bitcoin and are still left worth 7.6btc when bitcoin reaches 50 million.

Your net worth is 380 million.

You’ve reduced your lifestyle in bitcoin terms down to a million sats a month. (500k) or 6 million per year. You’re 46, Assuming you live until you’re 90 you will pass down 2.32 bitcoin to your kids.

You have no regrets about the way you played it, but your stress was consistently higher and there were a few scary months along the way.

Which option do you choose?

1 or 2?

2, but not for the obvious reasons. In option one, we “comfortably” harvest 7.5% in the trad fi markets. I deny that achieving that is less stressful than HODLing.

Can’t help wondering if that was a greater or lesser concern before you changed your profile pic 🤔

Time destroys winners also… but in the meantime, they get to be winners. nostr:note1mg569sccmyjgucxhnaj6csu0lvtgh2meu86zx4d7tp7ex30taeusx8zpzq

The closeup reminds me of an image I burned into my brain just before heading home from Courmayeur. That was in Feb ‘73. I couldn’t paint it but the memory is still vivid.

Hmmm… I could use a new water heater

Everyone who still has fiat, buy some bitcoin… nostr:note1h2q7wcpvg4y5atpyxh7hrhrda8r9kjsunnpgusjf3tghx4r6tndqxyq0c2

Looks like they put their woke ad agency in charge of hiring new designers.

That’s a fun exercise, but it’s hard to imagine a spot where you couldn’t make do with a 911 Dakar.

Glad you spotted that, it summarizes the corruption of our health system. It gets worse… much of cable news is sponsored by Pfizer.

NOSTR will make Orwell fiction again nostr:note1vqvyamqygaws5t3rasnx2xhzu8yq6xhwnmurew669ccghxvudacs8aj04t

Ok I’m ignoring you… not sure if I’m doing this right…

So, listening to a big V12 reverberating in a tunnel while heading to Lugano and/or Italy 🇮🇹? No, I’m not jealous at all. Why do you ask? 😉