Avatar
Marcus Satbard
b2e2249483624b0e52872272171762603a6d1314f21c0ce02f8d25dfaacbb45f
Dev, home-for-heat miner, node runner, #Poznań #BitcoinWalk organiser, self-defence trainer, kyc-free, class 21

Zapraszamy w sobotę na #Poznań #BitcoinWalk

11:00 zadaszony stojak rowerowy na skraju Ewangelickiej przy Skwerze Jana Suwarta

https://www.openstreetmap.org/?mlat=52.402955&mlon=16.943619#map=19/52.402955/16.943619

Oh OK, Chrome extension market is bigger but there are some only available on Firefox

Buy a standing desk, sell the chair

42M as bitcoin minimalists are fine with chain split if they don't succeed mounting 51% attack with BS legal threats

Zapraszamy jutro na #Poznan #BitcoinWalk

11:00 niezadaszony stojak rowerowy na dolnej zachodniej Wartostradzie przy moście Rocha

https://www.openstreetmap.org/?mlat=52.403358&mlon=16.944625#map=19/52.403358/16.944625

Well said buddy! I would add his ridiculous criticism of the grassroot Brexit movement and praise of the totalitarian EU as factors which put him closer to a statist than a libertarian.

History will remember with glory those who stood up and defended the 21M from contentious forks

Indeed, the fee market achieved that, considering the spam went away and we have <1sat/vB and non-full blocks

21M won't turn into 42, #Lukecoin won't happen or will gravitate to 0

Bitcoin will survive the #knotsi attack and emerge stronger afterward

We'll fight back with words

We'll back up our words in futures/prediction markets

We won't platform the contentious fork propaganda

We'll fight self-custoding our sats

We'll fight running own #Core nodes

We'll fight with our BS blackmail resistant hashrate

We'll crash the #knotsis

I asked a few days ago in my native language group offering flexibility on amount. Although there are people manipulatively pushing non-techie lemmings on that highly contentious and rushed fork no one is willing to back their words with sats. Moreover one of the main BIP444 promoters there, earlier explicitly answered that he believes that the fork has more than 50% chance to become more valuable. Verified, #BLV supporters are full of shit and should not be trusted.

Replying to Avatar Rob Hamilton

I have now fully open sourced the code which creates this on-chain BIP-444 futures contract!

The contract starts with an atomic deposit into the contract address of 1 BTC each (to make sure both parties put in the same amount into the contract address).

Context: BIP-444 makes the use of OP_IF & OP_NOTIF consensus INVALID upon activation.

The contract is built as follows:

The taproot address uses the NUMS point as described in BIP341, to provably show the key path is not active.

We have two parties, a "YES" (444 activates) and "NO" (444 does NOT activate). YES and NO for short.

The first leaf is a 2 of 2 multisig of both parties. This exists to be able to self send the UTXO AFTER BIP 444 activates. This is because BIP-444 just added a clause that UTXOs created before activation will NOT have the BIP-444 consensus rules applied to them. This self send removes that exception.

The second leaf: has 2 ways you can spend with it, a 2 of 2 (YES and NO) multisig, just like the first leaf OR the NO party, with a time lock which is LESS THAN the third tap leaf. This is important because it uses OP_NOTIF

The Third Leaf: The YES party can spend, after a time lock AFTER the second leaf.

The order of the timelocks is important. If BIP-444 activates, the spending condition that can spend before you will be consensus invalid, so it doesn't matter if you believe 444 activates.

So to summarize:

- If BIP-444 DOES activate, the party who believes it will be able to use the second tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.

- If BIP-444 DOES NOT activate, the party who believes that will use the third tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.

Since each side is highly confident in their position, the fair market price is a 1:1 ratio, implying 50% likelihood.

With 85 days until activation, this contract as written gives you an implied ~430% APY on your bitcoin! The risk is being incorrect on your opinion of BIP-444 activating.

You could modify the collateral each side puts up to get different implied odds of the futures contract as well.

Github: https://github.com/Rob1Ham/BIP-444-Futures

Address: https://mempool.space/signet/address/tb1p07flh4waghmkeep0l20nf2tyn4tw9wy3w4j5vkrf6mue9ddtakgsgc5clr

Anyone who wants to take the BIP-444 WILL activate side, let me know! The Author of the BIP has agreed to this, I have already asked for a larger bet size beyond the 1 BTC I initially proposed, but I have more!

Let's see if the author of the BIP really puts sats behind his words. It's a digital-only new account so it's easy to throw words when long-term you're not risking reputation.

It's unlikely the bitties would get smaller, prob AI-generated

CSW is gone but knotsis took the baton from him and the harassment of Core devs continues... it's a pity though that they don't want to fork off BLV and let the market speak

"Bitcoin Core's view (going all the way back to Satoshi, AFAICT) is that Bitcoin is a system secured by economics and self interest.

The knots vision of Bitcoin seems to be a system (in)secured by altruistic hope and populist theocracy-- by cancel culture and paper straw bans."

HRF's Finney Freedom Prize laureate

In Poland an engagement ring is worn on the right hand

Be sure it moves to the right hand when you're back in Poland

#proofOfWalk #Poznan #BitcoinWalk

Nice! Try to maybe bring more bitcoiners from Warsaw, if you book the same compartment or go in the same car, then you'll have a local meetup on the go :) Poznań has good connections with the capital both when it comes to the rails and the highway.