developers* 😉

At a hotel breakfast buffet with cappuccino machines, but the only milk option is skim. So the cappuccinos are shit.

Starting my day off with some first world problems.

So it begins… 🇵🇱

>>>A BAZOOKA CUT BY THE NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND... Is it the most dovish #centralbank around? Despite roughly 10% #inflation, The National Bank of Poland cut rates by 75bp to 6%, versus expectations of a 25bp cut.

- Poland’s central bank delivered a surprisingly steep interest rate cut in a bid to boost a slowing economy less than six weeks before a tightly-contested election, weakening the zloty and hammering banking stocks.

- The decision to lower the benchmark rate by three quarters of a percentage point — the most since the fallout from the great financial crisis in 2009 — to 6% caught economists off guard. Most had predicted a quarter point reduction.

- The decision takes on a political dimension coming so close to the Oct. 15 election and has left investors guessing at the next move, with some predicting that the easing cycle has ended as soon as it began.

Source: Bloomberg<<<

Charles-Henry Monchau via Linkedin

Learn #bitcoin

we can’t all be builders.

some of us are just adorable quail egg posters, and that’s okay.

#eggstr #grownostr #jkimbuildingasickAFdinner

Sometimes I wonder if we're not focused enough on developing meaningful (and free) social spaces in VR. At times it feels like there is a fabric of "permissioning" being lowered over what were nominally public spaces, for previous generations. I worry that one day we will wake in a world where if you don't have the right face, the right politics, the right cash — or more likely, card — there will be no place to go. Access denied.

Hard not to feel disappointed in the media these days. Harder still as you age, having read certain bylines for years; having seen them develop; having witnessed them decline.

That sounds amazing 🤩

Good morning! How is everyone doing today? ☀️

👀😅

No, CZ is the same. Broadly speaking, we are still pretty rich western country with some stepbacks. But "If Germany jumps of the bridge, Czechia jumps too." We have such a complex against bigger nations, yet we're quite ahead in interest in modern tech for example.

Lockdowns during covid were borderline hilarious, for a bit you weren't allowed to leave your town without a permit. It all showed our government is absolutely useless band of really uneducated clowns.

Homeschooling or alternative education demands jumping through a ton of hoops just to please the bureau, bureaucracy altogether grew crazy in last years.

Having a company here basically means you're a thief and need to be punished.

It's not bad if you keep in the line, study school, get a job, give birth via section in hospital, send kids to kiga and school and work for those free 5 weeks a year...I'm not good at any of this so far. Any attempt to do anything in the system ended up bad for me, I hated any school I studied, my business faced crushing investigations, we lost a LOT of money on state support due to having babies in Germany where I didn't pay taxes years before..I'm done. I'm so done drowning in bureaucracy and system acquirements.

Westerners - your nation, your society, it has already peaked.

This isn’t one of those “ride it out” for a few years troughs, the patterns and trends are structurally against you now and no matter how much lipstick they apply, your economy is a pig and it will be slaughtered.

Really have to ask yourself whether you want to live through the collapse and rebuild or whether your energy could be better directed from another place.

“We should change Bitcoin now in a contentious way to fix the security budget” is basically the same tinkering mentality that central bankers have.

It begins with an overconfident assumption that they know fees won’t be sufficient in the future and that a certain “fix” is going to generate more fees. But some “fixes” could even backfire and create less fees, or introduce bugs, or damage the incentive structure.

The Bitcoin fee market a couple decades out will primarily be a function of adoption or lack thereof. In a world of eight billion people, only a couple hundred million can do an on chain transaction per year, or a bit more with maximal batching. The number of people who could do a monthly transaction is 1/12th of that number. In order to be concerned that bitcoin fees will be too low to prevent censorship in the future, we have to start with the assumption that not many people use bitcoin decades out.

Fedwire has about 100x the gross volume that Bitcoin currently does, with a similar number of transactions. What will Bitcoin’s fee market be if volumes go up 5x or 10x, let alone 50x or 100x? Who wants to raise their hand with a confident model of what bitcoin volumes will be in 2040?

What will someone pay to send a ten million dollar equivalent on chain settlement internationally? $100 in fees per million dollar settlement transaction would be .01%. $300 to get it in a quicker block would be 0.03%. That type of environment can generate tens of billions of dollars of fees annually. The fees that people pay to ship millions of dollars of gold long distances, or to perform a real estate transaction worth millions of dollars, are extremely high. Even if bitcoin is a fraction of that, it would be high by today’s standards. And in a world of billions of people, if nobody wants to pay $100 to send a million dollar settlement bearer asset transaction, then that’s a world where not many people use bitcoin period.

In some months the “security budget” concern trends. In other months, the “fees will be so high that only rich people can transact on chain” concern trends. These are so wildly contradictory and the fact that both are common concerns shows how little we know about the long term future.

I don’t think the fee market can be fixed by gimmicks. Either the network is desirable to use in a couple decades or it’s not. If 3 or 4 decades into bitcoin’s life it can’t generate significant settlement volumes, and gets easily censored due to low fees, then it’s just not a very desirable network at that point for one reason or another.

Some soft forks like covenants can be thoughtfully considered for scaling and fee density, and it’s good for smart developers to always be thinking about low risk improvements to the network that the node network and miners might have a high consensus positive view toward over time. But trying to rush VC-backed softforks, and using security budget FUD to push them, is pretty disingenuous imo.

Anyway, good morning.

🇬🇧Oh my god. Now it hit me hard.

I'm a mother. Wannabe nomad (thx covid) or homesteader. Definitely will homeschool or something extra for kids (thx schooling system). Bitcoin maxi nowadays (thx inflation). Basically anarchist (thx gov). What the hell have I become.

I just wanted to be free, having noone to tread on me. So much to stand against to be just free.👀

🇨🇿Ach boha, teď to na mě dosedlo. Co se to ze mě stalo? Chci nomádit (protože covid) nebo mít třeba farmu, děti v domácím nebo nějakým echt vzdělávání (protože školtví). Jsem pro Bitcoin, prakticky maxík (protože inflace a prozření.) A dorostla jsem přes pravici a ancap až k anarchii (protože svině všude nad náma.)

A to všechno jen protože chci být svobodná. Nechci, aby mě někdo nadále mučil.

Tolik práce jen abych mohla být prostě svobodná.🥺

#freedom #bitcoin #czechstr #svoboda #homeschooling #nomad #homestead

Actually me)