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Manfred von Degecz
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1.) This is how Bitcoin started off. Unfortunately, probably on purpose, the L1 privacy features got neglected over the years. Need a parallel system (e.g. Monero) in case Bitcoin remains like this and gets further compromised. Good that they attack Monero now, let’s see if it can survive and prove its key features and mission.

Replying to Avatar Juraj

How to make sense of recent attacks on Bitcoin, parallel financial systems and individuals

It seems like a coordinated attack, not only coincidence. But things not be as they seem. While I can't rule out coincidence or coordination with the goal of destroying, I think it is something else...

I think it is coordination in decentralized system.

Premises:

- when you count reserves (and not demand deposits), Bitcoin is 6th largest reserve asset. It is around 20% of usd dollar reserves. This is not without reaction. IMF has included a condition not to make BTC legal tender in its loans terms and conditions. BTC is a way out, not only for individuals

- the upcoming elections in the US and bitcoin being a polarizing force. Decels attack it on unfounded environmental claims. It does not matter they don't know what they're talking about. They want votes, they sing a song that will lure in more voters, regardless of the factual basis. Politics is acting and storytelling.

- the real threat is people having a way out. But my premise is that there is no single actor that is incentivized enough to do something real about it.

I think what we see is emergence of micro level behavior:

- sec, central banks, etc are seeing the evaporation of their power. Organizations such as fatf-gafi and OECD see that their effort is not as fruitful, because people run software that does not dance to its tune. They do many small decisions to make it harder for us, every bureacrat seeing they have less power will do something, but there's no boss that is focused on delivering. At least not yet.

- institutions that found and used the exit are more powerful than ever. El Salvador is successful and does not regret using the exit door. Not because of legal tender, but because they buy it and use it themselves at the state level. On this level, BTC is true fuck you money

- many prosecutors and investigators see that putting Bitcoiners in jail has huge political capital and makes careers. Again, not coordinated in such a way "let's hit them all", more like "now is the time". Politically (before elections), it's a career making show of power.

I can't prove this, but this line of thinking is important, because it suggests that:

- lobbying is a waste of time

- there's no mastermind, it's emergent

- lunarpunk thesis is important

One possible development in the US: free people of America, we have you access to very nice and clean Bitcoin through ETF products, there's no money laundering, you can keep making money, but don't touch the real reserves, there are institutions with our approval that will do it for you. Soft ban on self custody, kill payment protocols, integrate asset to the financial system.

Don't predict the end game, there might not be one. Even the central planners have different objectives that are rarely aligned and there's power struggle within the hierarchy. What appears as conspiracy is just result of the internal conflict within the hierarchy.

Hope that is right. To me, the coordinated Covid terror (globally!) clearly showed (as well as the climate propaganda, digital IDs, etc) that there is a central unit directing major events. Even if they do not always agree on everything, the interest to subdue the masses is common. To that end, money has been a major tool for a long tine. Surely they keep an eye on Bitcoin, they are not stupid. Either they coopt(ed) it, including reducing its usage to SoV and KYC, or they will fight it tooth and nail. Alternatively, they have accumulated over 80% of the bitcoins and they will remain king of the universe. What happens at lower levels (governments, prosecutors) will not significantly change the direction.

That's certainly true. I wonder, however, to what extent parallel societies can operate in North Korea. Maybe for some superficial things they may offer some solution, but to get important things done would be difficult for fear of extreme punishment and spies everywhere. Apparently the situation is even worse there than it was in the Soviet satellite countries (a.k.a. Eastern Europe). The only way to live in a human way is to not be there/get out (if possible). An interesting test case (if parallel societies can exist efficiently there) will be the EU which is heading fast in the direction of full communism. Another test case will be if any civilized country can avoid/opt out from the upcoming/planned WHO pandemic treaty.

Replying to Avatar Juraj

A nice blog about forced association vs free association.

I perceive democracy as a form of forced association. People who don't want to cooperate and are at each others' throat (either literally in a form of primitive violence, or intellectually - cancel culture, network effect enforcement) are forced to choose a government. Or rather - they have a process that chooses a government that is then forced to everybody.

It's like a pendulum - we piss you off, they you piss us off, and each voting cycle, everyone hopes that the "good ones" win and will show once and for all to the bad ones what the public really wants.

Free association does not have this problem. There's no force. Do you want to participate? Cool! Don't want to participate? Also cool, do your own thing.

I think there are three ways out of this mess:

1. Nothing changes. We do this for decades. At least half of the population is constantly pissed (who the half is is constantly changing). Long and slow decline

2. Authoritarian way - monarchy. Think Dubai. The ruler says how things are, you can stay or you can leave if you don't like it. No matter what you do, you won't change the outcome of government, so you do your thing.

3. Libertarian way - don't force things on people. Want to support Ukraine with weapons? Sure, here's a crowdfunding campaign. Don't want to? Sure, you don't have to. Want to vaccinate yourself against current covid strain? Go ahead, market provides. Think the vaccine is dangerous? Well, don't get injected.

I believe most people in the west will live under number one. Constant polarization and infighting. Many are leaving to number two. Migration to well working monarchies is going on. Many productive people no longer want to move to Europe, but to Dubai or even Saudi Arabia.

And us bitcoiners will find a way to live under number three. Parallel societies, detachment from where we were born and opting out of states and opting in to various parallel communities and Dark forests.

If you read history books, you might come to an impression, that history is one thread - ideas that won were all that happened. But the present and the future will be heterogeneous. Even for people who live in the same city in many cases.

🍿 and let's discuss.

https://freemansperspective.com/lesson-devon-avenue/

Normally I would think that it is easier to have parallel societies in a "democracy" than in an authoritarian society/monarchy where the crackdown can be more efficient and fast. The problem is that today's so-called democracies are also authoritarian monarchies/oligarchies where the parties are only there to give the population the false illusion that they have a say in their fate when they vote (from a limited number of carefully pre-selected candidates). Some say that even countries are just a sideshow and they all dance to the same tune. The recent military grade worldwide covid terror definitely gives credit to those theories. Given that the world is fast moving towards an authoritarian/collectivist regime with 1, 2 or max 3 centers, it is all the more important to build out our parallel societies quickly.

I understand that approach too. On the other hand, one can only assess the full impact of caffeine on the body when one tries to cut it out for a weeky. Brutal. Happy to have given it up completely, don't miss it at all.

Replying to Avatar Gigi

GN

Sounds good, let's see if it works in practice. "I have 2,100,000,000,000,000 satoshis."

"Do you know that caffeine is highly toxic and addictive?" What a waste of zaps...

I've only seen very few people doing (light) stretching in a sauna, even when there is ample space inside. Doing some useful exercise (instead of just waiting for the time to pass) should be a no-brainer.