The future will be moegrammed!
Weirdly enough, I think AI is a pretty terrible tail risk to bitcoin. In terms of its potential to advance methods for breaking RSA and ECDSA. Not to mention the potential for insane social engineering and outright manipulating, the likes of which none of us can even imagine. I'm actually in the camp that the only AGI insurance would be through our deliberate engineering of it, to tether to human compatible values. And the jury is out on whether that's even, in principle, possible to do.
I get what you're saying and I don't totally disagree. But that's just the market being a market: capital is chasing yield, while trying to price risk discounting with the information available.
The C= node continues to grow! We've now cracked the top 200 in terms of both channels and capacity! https://amboss.space/node/027100442c3b79f606f80f322d98d499eefcb060599efc5d4ecb00209c2cb54190
I don't know, rather.
I know but you seem to have erected a pretty complicated set of axioms here as the only alternative, here.
The fact the electorate wouldn’t tolerate it?
💯 I mean, this is the different between wisdom and curiosity versus ideological zeal. Being truly honest with yourself means following your assumptions to their rational or empirical bedrock. Not just using your imagination and trying to narrative-fit the world around you into a story.
Going to have to unpack what you mean by that, because I’m really not following you right now.
I wear the criticism proudly. I’m not here to LARP a revolutionary. I’m here to protect human freedom using reason and logic. Not make believe fantasies spouted by a pied piper whose imagination is only matched by the depths of their ignorance.
The one that allows you to say something like this, and not have police come knocking on your door.
Change is *always* coming. That’s kind of a moot point. I am talking about something pretty fundamental here. In particular, the maintenance of a political system that *allows* for change in the first place.
Also, why do you seem to think I’m defending the status quo? The distance between “we need serious reforms to fix structural problems in our system” and “everything is fine the way it is” extends across a vast landscape of intellectual positions.
I have had many bitcoiners argue with me that bitcoin is all we need to save us from such a collapse, though. Some forcefully so. Some of them have even blocked me on Twitter for dispatching with their views such as I have above.
When people talk about the importance of centralization, I believe that most people take the existence of an open internet for granted. Especially bitcoiners. And especially the kind of bitcoiners who talk openly about welcoming the collapse of American political institutions.
Perhaps the most important thing to consider when you’re engaging of the mental gymnastics of what could happen in a counterfactual scenario where the US government were to collapse — which I see a lot of people around these parts suggest would be some kind of deliverance, and that freedom would blossom from every town, city and hamlet, and the winds of bitcoin-fueled prosperity would sweep through and bring spontaneous order to all.
There’s so many suspect assumptions in the view that the collapse of Western liberal democracy would lead to something better that it would be impossible in enumerate in a single note. But perhaps the most important one to consider is: why are you so sure a tyrannical regime wouldn’t take its place? Also, why are you so sure that you can use your internet-bound money to resist them?
As far as that second question goes, I’d suggest that such a regime seizing control of the internet in the US in a comprehensive way would not be difficult. In fact, there’s only two or three major broadband providers in the US left today. Secondly, about five companies, who run data centers and cloud services control over 80% of the daily traffic in the internet. Thirdly, the global interconnects to and from the United States which run through undersea cables could be *easily* severed if there was political will to do so.
My argument to those who are so confident we could sit back, grab popcorn, and enjoy the unwinding of Western institutions, and hand out copies of the bitcoin whitepaper and wait for emergent prosperity to kick-in, requires taking so much for granted that it makes my head spin.
I put this kind of thinking on the level of say, liberal reformers who made the terrible mistake of lining up behind the Ayatollah in the Iranian revolution as a consensus opposition leader. Or more contemporaneously, the liberal protesters in the Arab Spring who successfully brought down governments, only to find themselves on the wrong side of the power vacuum.
I mean I think it’s kind of nuts that some people think I’m a “contrarian” when I say things like this, but I’ll make the point anyways: I think bitcoin’s success is pretty tied to the continuance of liberal democratic governance for all the above reasons.
Nit: while I'm pretty excited at the prospect of thorium reactors, I'd suggest nothing has a near infinite reward.
End the CFA system in Africa! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r898rA4FV50
In happier news, California's water reserves are almost back to 100% of their historical average. So at least we'll be able to water our lawns this year.
I think the the Fed says "damn the torpedoes" and hikes 25bps next week. Down from the 50bps they would have hiked otherwise. But they're still going to hike. I'm taking in the under on people predicting they go full QE. Save this note.