Decent humans are capable of acknowledging the struggles of others. Others who are different from them, others who they disagree with. And this is pretty much the measure of adulthood. Are you capable of taking responsibility for your behavior and are you capable of acknowledging experiences and realities outside of yourself? ...have you realized that the world does not revolve around you?

The fuck?

nostr:note1sqs9mqzgrkukxegz9aaxpceterlnha9ecltwgn02nf38h9zpr07qtvzn20

I am Satoshi Nakamoto.

All of us are Satoshi Nakamoto.

#Bitcoin

I am Satoshi Nakamoto.

Guys! We have a new Satoshi! You know what this means right?!

The bull market can finally start.

LFG.

Sorry Peter Todd, I am Satoshi.

I read an article today about how booming the US natural gas industry is right now. I'm really curious when we might start openly talking about how we were never ever going to get rid of fossil fuels with the addition of wind and solar without batteries capable of fully replacing natural gas plants.

I need Andrew Dessler (who is not on Nostr) to talk me down from this very pessimistic ledge.

Doom and gloomers still calling for an imminent major #recession in the US this morning.

Doom and gloomers still wrong.

#Normalization, not #recession.

Don't get married if you feel like you need a prenup. Till death do you part or not. Make your decision.

One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

#Bitcoin  just hit ATH in the Euro 🇪🇺

Used robosats today to complete a P2P trade after getting rugged by cashapp this morning. Fuck centralized exchanges.

how did they miss the nuclear powered mining facility in PA? lol

I'm calling it: everyone's internet history this week will be one of these 4, "just browsing 😂

#m=image%2Fjpeg&dim=1080x1509&blurhash=%5ENR3QO%25gWXRPbI%252_3M%7BWBogj%5BRj_4M_s%3At8jZax00%25MkCV%40ofozj%5BWBM%7BWBfkWB%7EqWAoeogV%40RjD%25t7ofoft7t7RjNGRjWAofj%40x%5Dt7ofWBRjRj&x=e455a06707f55a4d6d5c6bab910f1faf9a7bb855dc52ee3222cc9d6494faaf72

#m=image%2Fjpeg&dim=1080x1312&blurhash=_wJk%3DhM%7Bt7t7off7ofxwofWBj%5BWBj%5BWBnzxaa%7EWCt7j%5Bof-RM%7Cj%3FkCWAazWB-%3BWBofofa%23ayoM%25%25ozj%5Bj%3FWVf6j%3FtQj%3FkCfRayj%40a%23jcj%3Dj%5Ba%7DjsbHj%5BaJWEWCfRayayay&x=7d5e40ab69cf058ec7cbb034ae3f1bb37c28822b25f654d7fd6cac59caf8b0e9

#m=image%2Fjpeg&dim=1080x994&blurhash=%3B%5EN11CocWBj%5Dazj%5BaejsWBIoa%23oLj%3FoeayoffQj%5B_NR*j%5Bj%5Bj%5Bj%5BkCbHj%5B%25MfPaxj%5BWBj%5BayayaxV%40oMofayj%3Faxoef6j%5Bf5j%3FWBa%23fRbHayj%5BayWBj%5BWBayj%5Bj%5Bazj%5Bf6M%7Bj%5Dayayj%5Bf6fPa%7Cj%40&x=2045291cc6481a21e7c58e389757c6cf40e3f6460204efee9382375e9e689d6f

#m=image%2Fjpeg&dim=1080x1069&blurhash=%7CBMaYC%3FcMwt7bI9F-ptSIU0000%25N%252ITxuM%7CjY%25MW8%7EWRj9Gx%5DxaWAWVR*9D%25L9Zj%3DxttRRkoJj%5D00M%7Cxst6WXV%40xuRjM%7C00-qM%7CxaaeR*WBj%5DoL%253D%24%3FbIoIoxuWAWBxuslt7NGt7WBM%7BkCt6f5E2kCMxxtofM%7BxaozM%7B&x=f4b72cbca4813f20015dec8421ea940739d039ef99863dc06d8714837a1202e3

Started mining again today, hot damn 🔥

#m=image%2Fjpeg&dim=1080x1084&blurhash=%7C5QmCs9E%3Fbt7-%3B%25Mxu%25M%25M00xuWEM%7BRQWBa%23f6ay00%25LRkWAIVRiWBWBWA00t6RkRjV%5BWBj%5Dj%5Bj%5B00axIUofayWBj%5Bayj%5B00t7xuRjt7WBt7ayWB00t7t7RjayWBj%5Bj%5BfQofIUs%3At7WBxuWBoft7%7EqWBkCoLofofWBayay&x=04dce41ed02180be373da7e5ee7798ba2065a57c086f8088697115702d0a175a

(JK, turned it on late in the day so reward is smol)

so much coming in the next few months! shoutout to the team!

also, check your email if you want direct deposits and wires 👀

Is there a way to downgrade the frequency of certain posters in my feed?

I want to keep them in my feed, but they post SO much that it drowns everything else out. I’d love it if they posted 1/3rd as often 😆