Do you even have a favorite Macro Analyst, Anon?

Follow this pleb #plebchain nostr:note1ff0p9sg9gfq42ps32mqanmnhwq9t8sjc0svtxe6ujg8u738ct8qq3hm0u7

best way to make coffee

nostr usage remains low:

even on a day where twitter experiences outages globally, less than 9,000 people create any data (posts, likes, dms, settings changes etc)

that is still lower than usage figures in march

Tweets no longer show impressions now for unverified users. Guessing that’s by design meaning unverified users will get almost no engagement on twitter now unless their give blood and tax receipts to Elon.

Tweets no longer show impressions now for unverified users. Guessing that’s by design meaning unverified users will get almost no engagement on twitter now unless their give blood and tax receipts to Elon.

Too many people have given Elon a pass. Don't give him a pass.

He's a marketer, not a founder or an engineer. He didn't found PayPal or Tesla; he bought into them early. He's good at selling narratives and equity valuation for perpetually unprofitable companies.

Everything for him is a narrative. His green revolution was a narrative to sell more cars and get more subsidies. His bitcoin purchase was to gain appeal among bitcoin/crypto people in a bull market. And he shilled doge like a dumbass. His SpaceX narrative is to get money from the government.

His rooftop solar thing was an outright scam; the technology isn't ready and went nowhere because of that. His full-self-driving-in-an-intermediate-term timeline was a scam, and is going nowhere because of that. He makes scams to draw people and capital in, because for him it's all about narratives and equity valuation.

And then he dug unproductive holes, suggested unproductive hyper-tubes, built meme flamethrowers, for what? It's a narrative, not a business. None of this is real productive shit to make peoples' lives better.

His latest "we need free speech" narrative was a scam too. He tapped into something real, which is what marketers do and why it kind of worked. Yes, we need free speech. Yes, Twitter had censorship issues. He saw that and jumped on it maliciously rather than productively.

But what did he replace it with? He replaced it with arbitrary journalist censorship about his private jet, arbitrary censorship of Substack, selective Twitter Files release, won't talk seriously about any of his China connections because Xi Jinping fucking owns him economically there like Jack Ma, has his balls firmly in his grasp, etc.

Elon's playing the narrative, the anti-woke meme of the day. He's a master meme-momentum-player. Don't fall for it.

Welcome to the party!!

$USOIL gap higher on tonight's market open to $81 per barrel.

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day.

I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan's ain't QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest order. While I think bitcoin will come out on top eventually, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch & correlation -> 1 event like Mar 2020 is higher than at any point since then. While the eventual result will probably be QE & bitcoin mooning, don't think that it can't first get slaughtered in price by another credit crunch & wave of deflation. In fact, QE won't happen until such an event forces the fed's hand.

See chart below. Red is total Fed bal. sheet (BS) & blue is the QE part (treasury & agency securities obtained by printing money & buying outright). The difference (green) is mostly short-term loans. During QE, blue & red track, green is flat. Red-blue divergence & green spiking happens during emergency lending episodes. When this is seen, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch is much elevated.

I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan's ain't QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest order. While I think bitcoin will come out on top eventually, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch & correlation -> 1 event like Mar 2020 is higher than at any point since then. While the eventual result will probably be QE & bitcoin mooning, don't think that it can't first get slaughtered in price by another credit crunch & wave of deflation. In fact, QE won't happen until such an event forces the fed's hand.

See chart below. Red is total Fed bal. sheet (BS) & blue is the QE part (treasury & agency securities obtained by printing money & buying outright). The difference (green) is mostly short-term loans. During QE, blue & red track, green is flat. Red-blue divergence & green spiking happens during emergency lending episodes. When this is seen, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch is much elevated.

Wake and bake is about to send me back to sleep 😴

me: “I’m just chillin over here, gettin zapped, zappin em back.”

mrs allen: “zapping them back? why? are you an idiot? don’t do that.”

May or may not be working on a little group song for #Nostrica 🤙🎶💜

“Zap me mama like a…👀

Wonder how this guy is doing

2018-2020 was a special time for bitcoin twitter.

Then it died somewhere around 2021.

In 2023 I feel that same energy on Nostr.

Pure signal.

That's very cool how twitframe tweet previews have been added.