It depends also if it stays low or if it recovers quickly. It will be clear

Definitely super-duper this time. It might even un-humble me.

And finally X's Grok:

In the context of Bitcoin, the terms "cycle" and "supercycle" refer to patterns in its price movements over time, influenced by various factors like halving events, market adoption, and macroeconomic conditions. Here's a breakdown of the differences:

Normal Bitcoin Cycle:

Halving Influence: Bitcoin undergoes a halving event approximately every four years, where the reward for mining new blocks is halved. This event reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, often leading to a decrease in supply growth which historically has preceded price increases.

Cycle Phases:

Accumulation: After a halving, there's often a period where the price might stagnate or even fall as the market adjusts to the new supply dynamics.

Markup: Gradually, as the reduced supply starts to affect the market, the price begins to rise, often leading to a bull market.

Distribution: Prices peak, and then there's a sell-off phase where early investors or speculators cash out, leading to a bear market.

Markdown: Prices fall significantly, bottoming out until the next halving approaches, when the cycle might start again.

Duration: These cycles typically align with the halving schedule, roughly every 4 years.

Market Sentiment: Influenced by speculation, regulatory news, technological developments, and broader financial market trends.

Bitcoin Supercycle:

Concept: The idea of a "supercycle" suggests a break from the traditional cycle pattern where Bitcoin might not revert to lows seen in previous cycles after a peak. This could happen if:

Massive Institutional Adoption: If large institutions, governments, or significant parts of the global economy start adopting Bitcoin, this could fundamentally change its price dynamics.

Fiat Currency Devaluation: In scenarios where traditional currencies are losing value significantly due to inflation or economic crises, Bitcoin might be seen as a safe haven, pushing its price up without a typical correction.

Longer Duration: A supercycle might not follow the traditional 4-year cycle but could extend over a longer period due to sustained demand.

Higher Price Levels: The price might not only increase but could potentially stabilize at much higher levels than seen before, due to a new equilibrium in supply and demand.

Economic and Political Factors: Events like widespread distrust in traditional financial systems, major policy shifts towards digital assets, or significant technological breakthroughs could propel Bitcoin into a supercycle.

Speculative Nature: The concept of a supercycle is more speculative, based on potential future scenarios rather than observed historical patterns.

In Summary, while a normal Bitcoin cycle is characterized by predictable patterns linked to halving events, a supercycle would represent a significant deviation where Bitcoin might achieve a new, higher baseline price due to fundamental shifts in its adoption and perception. However, whether a supercycle will occur is still a matter of debate and speculation within the crypto community.