AH makes a good point.
I don't think it plays out this epoch though.
This is the SuPeRcycLe.
nostr:nprofile1qqsp4lsvwn3aw7zwh2f6tcl6249xa6cpj2x3yuu6azaysvncdqywxmgpr9mhxue69uhhqatjv9mxjerp9ehx7um5wghxcctwvsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsjnv598 on #bitcoin treasury companies.
Some will get rekt.
Nothing beats sats on ice.
https://blossom.primal.net/c611ad027efb5c57f30b3933afe51189a616deb49128f6eefbca8d97a072e0aa.mov
Discussion
People selling the stock of a company thar owns company doesn’t mean bitcoin getting liquidated. I have a hard time seeing any large bitcoin treasury company recklessly buying bitcoin with short duration debt.
There will be a bitcoin treasury company bubble, but it popping won’t necessarily affect Bitcoin.
This is not Terra Luna selling 80,000BTC
You don't know where this all ends up man.
I'm talking 4+ years from now.
Well, yeah, no one does. I’m just making an educated guess based on how these companies are accumulating Bitcoin, and who the new players are.
The risk is loans marked to the stock price or the Bitcoin price.
Plus you'll have a lot of plebs with Bitcoin denominated loans secured at much higher prices.
I don't see it being something that blows up this epoch.
People getting rekt with loans will always be a thing. In comparison to what corporations are accumulating it’s peanuts tho.
Rich people will margin against IBIT or MSTR. The group of people borrowing against spot bitcoin will be much smaller imo, especially with income products like MSTY and IMST and fixed income products like STRF/STRK
The Bitcoin backed loans are going to get really popular, especially when price grinds up with no massive sell offs. Most of the current products suck but they will get more attractive.
Margin against IBIT & MSTR is the same risk but on a different instrument.
This isn't a new risk, leverage gets shaken out each epoch. People will downplay the risk after 4 years of clear sailing.
The bubble is just beginning. We will see really shitty companies running really reckless strategies eventually
The depravity will be legendary.
And they will have much smaller stacks of Bitcoin that may it may not get liquidated. I don’t think it will be the 80,000 that Luna liquidated. This niche will definitely have a boom and bust, but I think it’s contagion to the spot bitcoin price could be limited instead of being a repeat of 2021/2022
I’m anticipating there being a lot of these companies. Everyone I talked to at the conference was gearing up to do this.
Not sure the increase in supply of this companies in response to demand will not destroy potential bubble in its infancy, converging their mNAVs similar to what happens in shitcoins or anything where supply elastic
Call me crazy but even if there are 50 reckless companies buying 1000 btc each and they all go bust (50k btc dumped in the market) I don’t see how that moves the market at all. Maybe a 30% bust but then it continues slowly grinding upwards
Time will tell, but I think we are in a cyclical 10 year+ trend where we are going to be absolutely bored until 1 million per coin 😆
BlackRock Bitcoin Cycle
Think more like 1,000 companies globally with 1,000 bitcoin each
With a clear and open-source playbook, I still struggle to see a high percentage opting to be reckless and put themselves in a situation where Bitcoin needs to be liquidated. Their acquisitions may slow down if interest dies and capital rotates to the new darling, but bitcoin doesn’t have to leave their treasury when this inevitably happens.
Shareholders of copycats will absolutely get rekt, no disagreement there
Totally agree
2008 called, they want their schenanigans back
So the thesis is that you think 🤔 that these treasuary companies is too over leverage with Debt .
If they get these debt loan offerings at zero interest rate. And Bitcoin price falls . You think that it would cause a massive liquidation of their stock options .
So it’s the learning cycle. Finally
In other words, don't be afraid to shave a little off at certain points on the way up...because the next collapse and insuing bear market will be beyond epic 👌 😎
Eventually?
The unwind will be breathtaking.
James Wynn going to be a cfo soon
I don't want to be a pessimistic party pooper. But this cycle is coming to an end. A bear market of at least 2 years is about to arrive. How nice it accumulates 😍😍
Basically, the Internet DotCom bubble comes to Bitcoin. So you'd advise selling all of our satoshis now before the imminent collapse in January 2026 kt is that 2027? 😉