My goal?
Humbly stack sats until I can support myself and my family off of 5% of my #bitcoin stack... at bear market lows (IMPORTANT), not bull market highs.
It's similar to the 4% rule of IRAs, but I expect bitcoin to outperform equities, bonds, and real estate far into the future.
Market peaks are fun to talk about, but the basal growth rate is much more important to consider.
OPINION: For the next 10 years, I think bitcoin will maintain a CAGR of 35%-45%.
Share some examples. How many bitcoins would you need for $500k in yearly revenue from the last bear market low and what do you think that number is for the next bear market?
This is an interesting concept to me!
🐻 🦀
5% per year?
I’ve often wondered how to think about my stack…income is good for me as a radiologist, but stack is big too. Hard for my mind to compare a high rate of income in one currency to a slowly growing bitcoin stack…
At any rate, I’m motivated more by my work itself rather than the pay at the moment, but at some point I’ll have to hang up the scrubs. At least now I know how to think about it.
Yes, tradfi projects a yearly return of 7-8% on average with ETFs. So 3-4% is seen as a safe amount to cash out yearly.
Damn. Love this
As long as the lowest low is higher than the previous cycle I will always be happy and stacking because we all know the peaks cause panic all the time to either buy or sell
Interesting take. Have you thought about dca out in peak land to survive bear markets? For example with a mixed portfolio of 90% BTC and 10% Cash?
Thanks Jeff! I've been thinking on and off about how to transition into retirement after I have enough of a stack to do so. I had some other ideas but just waiting until the bottom is in to calculate your withdrawal rate feels simple and robust. 👍
I'm also a bit interested in Bitcoin Money Market Funds idea as well as a way to hedge volatility, we'll see how that develops.
50 yr cagr thoughts?
So, to avoid some busy work, I mapped out the next 50 years:
~11.6k sats ($5k) single utxo
30% cagr
No contributions
No storage/maintenance/mining fees
5% drawdown after 20yr
————————————————-
$36k cash in drawdown year 1
$104k cash in d year 5
$387k cash in d year 10
$694k hodl in d year 1
$1983k hodl in d year 5
$7363k hodl in d year 10
Holy shit lol wtf
