1000%, discussion around UBI is always a gauge to how well someone understands basic incentives and market function.

There is literally no world where UBI doesn’t destroy an entire layer of the market incentive structure, leaving the society poorer than what UBI gives.

In other words, if you use UNI to give everyone an apple a day, it will lower the supply of apples in society by 2 apples a day, and literally everyone will be worse off by an apple, and worse they become dependent on the one apple they get from “the system” because apples are now too expensive.

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Eliminating the IRS is a way better idea. Let people keep the money they earned instead of handing it out bums

Granted on a sound money system. Under a fiat standard there’s an argument that it balances the injustices of the cantillion effect.

It doesn’t, but it could seem that way in the surface.

I guess stealing is bad anyway you look at it even if to give to the poor. Better have a sound system.

For someone that only knows the fiat system it seems like the only “fair” way to balance it.

How do you compete against someone with access to the money printer otherwise? (Assuming you have no concept of sound money)

What about planting trees, especially apple trees?

What incentive is there to do that if people who grow apple trees are having their apples taken from them, and people who don’t grow apple trees get free apples? 🤔🤔🤔🤔

What if people with apple trees stopped being uptight about it, realising that their contribution to the apple growing process was pretty minimal anyway?

stay away from my apple trees

It’s ok, growing apple trees is super easy so obviously they will just go grow their own. Who needs to steal something if it’s so simple? Amiright? 😉🤔

Tell that to Adam.

If growing apple trees isn’t hard and is no real contribution, then why do we need UBI? Everyone can just do the easy, low effort thing and grow their own apple trees and have infinite apples per their own personal UBI.

Your premise for excusing UBI contradicts the very premise for why you suspect UBI is necessary.

What you are really asking it why don’t people just do what we subjectively think they ought to instead of what they value for their own lives and what they want to do with their own time and resources? In other words, you are claiming they ought to be a slave to others before they get the right to own themselves. If your plan requires enslaving people “just a little bit,” it’s probably a bad plan that will never work.

Anything we believe someone else “should do” we must apply to ourselves first before we start thinking we can control someone else’s life better than they can.

You’re the one that bought apples into it.

I’m not into arguing about UBI tbh but if there’s an argument about apples to be had, I’m down 100%

That's fair, im a fan of apples too 🤣

Why giving an apple a day will lower the supply of apples in society by 2 apples a day?

I’ll rephrase your question:

How does theft by an institution with no incentive to be productive and no cost for wasting resources and no fundamental need to cooperate with anyone as its resources are confiscated with violence or counterfeited, end up causing damage instead of helping?

Your answer is in the give-a-shit matrix

Not only that but the one apple they get from the sytem is also going to be "flavor infused" with swill gates and fraudci mrna juice for 100% more nutrition. Nom nom everyone!

Within a few years AI will probably have an IQ way higher than humans and can make 60% of jobs worldwide obsolete, if I'm correct

This transition to a new era will make a lot of movies reality, like Minority Report. How are people going to get income? It will be difficult to know how to provide value as a human and not compete with AI.

Apply this same problem to the invention of tractors when 90% of the population works on farms.

Farmers can use tractors to make their operations more efficient.

A truck driver can’t leverage a self driving truck, he will just be out of a job.

Faster and cheaper stuff shouldn’t come at the expense of a healthy society where people have dignified jobs and a purpose.

It literally doesn’t. Your lack of an imagination doesn’t change that.

And your comparison uses two completely different groups either without realizing it or by trying to dodge the issue. I’m not talking about farmers, I’m talking about the millions who *worked in farms* who were displaced by tractors.

My example has absolutely zero fundamental difference from the conditions of today and Ai. To need fewer people to do something is the entire purpose of society. It does not make anyone poorer, it only changes what people do.

Example: you think the internet can even exist is a world where we need 90% of the population working on farms? It can’t. Tractors ALLOWED the internet to exist by freeing people up and providing food at vastly lower cost.

Better

Technology

Doesnt

Create

Poverty

Just

Because

You

Can’t

Imagine

The

Future

I don’t mean this to sound targeted at you, btw. Rereading it sounds like I’m attacking you for being stupid or something and that wasn’t the intent. Just getting ranty

Just for the record I’m not saying I can imagine the future either, I’m saying it’s practically impossible to do so, but our lack of an image doesn’t change the nature of markets and production.

Of course no one in the 1900s could imagine that all the people put out of work would eventually be working to sustain a global electronic communication system and eventually a place switching digital network that could provide practically any service that people desired at their whim… but that’s what happened nonetheless and tractors made it possible, they didn’t “make farm workers poor.”

My point was that not all technological breakthroughs disrupt equally. Someone that was a carriage driver could adapt to the invention of cars and become a taxi driver. A self-driving car completely removes the driver from his profession.

A secretary can go from using a typewriter to using a computer. An AI chatbot completely removes the secretary from the equation.

And sure, these people can go and find some other job, but finding a new profession is more disruptive than learning how to integrate a new tool into your profession.

We are not passive bystanders. We are the main character and should prioritize societal well-being over higher GDP even if it means goods and services will be a little more expensive. Faster and cheaper comes at a cost.

This is a tangential point to the UBI discussion, but still relevant IMO.

Less drivers means more farm owners.

Unfortunately, no. Compute limitations are starting to be rapidly hit, and AI inherently cannot be “intelligent”.

I have take on this, but it doesn't follow the anarcho capitalist ideal of no state at all, and it also doesn't follow the conservative ideal that everyone is capable of working or needs a functioning family to survive.

So for this thought experiment let's assume we live on a Bitcoin standard, a state exists and it is capable of collecting taxes in Bitcoin.

Now let's assume the state collects 5% income tax (could be any other number, did not calculate this). Every month all the collected money is divided by the number of citizens and redistributed equally as UBI. It means some people contribute more than they get back through UBI, but everybody receives it. This would have the benefit, that nobody starts from zero at the beginning of the month. If UBI is too low to survive, it encourages people to work more, especially those that are capable of working. Furthermore they always earn on top of their UBI, such that there is always the incentive to add income on top to have more money than the UBI. And 5% of this additional income goes back into the UBI. This would be a UBI with a strong incentive to earn on top, especially if the UBI declines due to declining productivity. Basically, there would not be a guarantee to receive a certain amount. It would either find an equilibrium, where UBI is as high as required to survive at a minimum, or it would produce even more UBI than most people actually need. At the same time it would lift those from zero that are not capable to survive on their own. It would also be more privacy friendly than the current social systems, where people who receive benefits have to show all their financial activity and assets to be eligible.

It is basically a question of how society wants to organize itself on top of Bitcoin. And again, it is just a thought experiment, ready to be roasted.

Sure it sounds great if we don’t imagine an adversarial scenario and just kinda hand wave away the market incentives as if they don’t play a role.

Take it off paper and into the real world and it falls apart really fast.

Give a man a fish

And pretend its a free meal

Next he brings a friend

#haiku

Yes it seems that is no one has a job and needs UBI then things will be so cheap it should even out…

I fully support UBI:

Keep working and use my UBI check to stack sats harder.

#Bitcoin #acceleration

If Radical Abundance is possible then in that kind of world UBI is not at all damaging. It would be bizarre to charge for many things if your home replicator could cough out as many as you desire, for instance.

If radical abundance is possible then we don’t need UBI. If radical abundance is achieved it’ll be because of free market incentives. If you destroy free market incentives with UBI you will no longer have radical abundance.

It’s like saying you can create an organism that is so successful that you no longer need DNA, when DNA is the only way you can create a successful organism. They are interdependent.

There is no future with radical abundance that has a socialist or communist distributions of resources. They are perfect opposites of each other.

what's the difference between a UBI and a negative income tax?

Kinda the same thing, but different implementation details and slightly different disincentives.

UBI is universal, meaning literally everyone would get it. So even if you make a bajillion dollars, you still get your $1K a month or whatever (which makes it economically meaningless on top of distorting incentives, but I digress), while a negative income tax is based on how much you make. Say under $50K you get 10¢ for every dollar less you make, and over $50K you pay 10¢ on every dollar you make.

The latter sounds more logically consistent, but comes with the huge problem of having to invade the privacy of literally everyone, the staggering cost of auditing and accounting for every individual which props up a bloated and wasteful industry of number crunchers from a huge swath of population that has no need for it, and the burden of filing taxes. Along with it then comes the political industry of creating exceptions, special interest, loopholes, etc. The idea that this would stay neutral and not be horrifically abused and turn right back into what we have today.

It’s the problem with all of it really. There’s an insanely strong incentive with no feedback mechanism that creates incredible pressure to complicate, bloat, and corrupt it because *thats what directly rewards the political institutions and their authority.*

It always SOUNDS great to have something simple and neutral, but that cannot exist in a political environment, because political incentives are the antithesis to simple, uninvolved neutrality. It’s a fairy tale.

Yeah, I feel like you misunderstand how a negative income tax works. There would be absolutely zero invasion of privacy, because there is no longer a requirement for eligibility. As with a UBI, everyone would get a payment (although for most people it would simply be a credit towards their income tax bill).

The main advantages of a negative income tax are:

- A flat income tax rate (I won't go into the many benefits of a flat income tax rate, but there are a lot)

- Elimination of "welfare cliffs"—where benefits are cut off once someone starts earning, discouraging work

- Reduction of government administrative costs by eliminating eligibility tests

- no retirement age - the UBI would simply continue into old age. You can choose to top it up with additional work or investment income

It's surprising how close the implementation of this mirrors the actual current situation in Australia (see chart below in AUD with an annual UBI of $19,830 - equivalent to the current social security payment - and a flat tax rate of 47% - equivalent to the current top rate of income tax). Unsure how it would look in other countries, but I suspect the figures can be tweaked to align.

I used to believe UBI was what we needed for the world to transition, to a world where nobody needs to work because automation has taken all jobs, but it's just a FIAT solution to FIAT caused problems. Ultimately it's unnecessary because Bitcoin itself actually IS a fair UBI system in a way. Work hard enough and save long enough in self custody, and your Bitcoin's growth in spending power will quickly outpace your spending to the point that you functionally have a UBI that you're in control of and give to yourself on your own terms. Only instead of bureaucrats deciding who gets what, personal effort does. It's much more wholesome, global, fair and motivating to all.