Meanwhile, on Twitter...

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1687867034158440448

nostr:npub1qg8j6gdwpxlntlxlkew7eu283wzx7hmj32esch42hntdpqdgrslqv024kw

#plebchain #bitcoin

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Discussion

This isn't a fair bet. Adam stands to gain much more than he can lose.

That's called betting odds.

No, I mean each sat is worth more if Adam wins

I know, but the odds (as accepted by the counter party) are that Adam is less likely to win so that balances out. The counter party is fairly sure that they will get their payout that is worth less and thinks there is a much smaller possibility they will have to ante up the more valuable winnings if Adam is right.

So while Adam stands to gain more if he wins the counter part believes that is a far less likely outcome and so is a reasonable bet.

I'm not sure it's that unlikely

You obviously think it's more likely than the counter party so you wouldn't take the bet. The final decision of likelihood is very subjective.

A few weeks ago I made a bet with a no-coiner over 1 gram of gold that #bitcoin will be greater than $30K in 5 years. I should have raised the stakes.