Some people think AI and AI chat bots are all hype. They couldn’t be more wrong.

Thousands of tasks can now be automated or at the very least done significantly faster with much less effort and by fewer people.

Unlike humans, AI systems don’t get tired, don’t take vacations, and don’t single task. They can access vast amounts of data quickly and find the parts that matter. Reporting, presenting, what used to take hours now takes seconds. Combined with other forms of data connected by plugins, it’s much easier to surface the right data.

Unlike humans, once trained, AI systems don’t require constant retraining. They scale much faster and cheaper beyond anything a traditional human workforce can accomplish.

Which fields are impacted? No, the better question is which fields AREN’T impacted. Data work, customer service, manufacturing, warehousing, healthcare, marketing, transportation, finance, HR, retail, design, development, are just the tip of the iceberg.

AI touches everything, and we are only in the early stages. My guess is there won’t be a single thing we do that is not somehow impacted by AI. At some point, anything you do, touch and experience will have had an AI play a role in making it happen.

We are in a major shift in the way things are done, on a much grander scale than the industrial revolution.

The next 2-3 years will be super interesting to say the least. If the smart phone could change the world in a fairly short period of time, it’s hard too imagine what AI will do for us in the same timeframe. The world may not be recognizable a decade from now, even though every fiber of your being may deny it.

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The actually need to be retrained over time otherwise their performance decays as the world keeps moving but they remain static.

All of this happens on a much shorter time frame and a much larger scale with less cost.

Yes, I understand. But it’s important also to understand that there are maintenance costs associated with AI models.

I'm particularly interested in AI-enabled mental health

Full lifetime of indexed ideas to play with and draw from

What ideas do you have?

I'm thinking about prices being set on margin, and in relation of one good to another.

The supply of goods (services) is being derived from the marginal cost of production of one good vs another.

And the demand reflects the marginal utility of the good.

If you want to ensure that your skills (assets) are maintaining its value. Focus on areas which have:

- 1) AI-proof marginal costs of production

- 2) AI-proof marginal utility curves in your market (non-rapidly decreasing demand with increasing volume)

=> Hard money is the best asset. Other scarce input resources sounds great too (premium land; old wine collections; ..)

Skills - plumbers, physiotherapists, electricians, vets sound great to me.

All of this 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

Agree 100%

trained is much diff from autonomous

With an agent you can essentially automate things and even retraining. Agents will get better over time where we may see entire organizations run by automated agents.

macro-services

less work sounds great :)

💯

Totally agree, the cost of data is zero marginal cost, Midjourney is generating $100 million in revenue with only 11 employees. This is why the efficiency of AI has greatly exceeded that of previous technologies and reduced the cost.

Let's assume you're 100% right (because I'm sure you are) and the "unintended consequences" are avoided.

What kind of pros and cons do you expect to see for the average person working an average, non-degreed job on the 5 year timeline?

Non degree jobs may stick around longer than office jobs. Even if ai/robotics gets super good, it’s still going to cost a lot to replace human labor. So, any labor-focused work may persist longer.

Pros: we won’t have as much work

Cons: we won’t have as much work

But I’m really not sure. In the current system this just leads to less employment and consistently higher prices. Two things you don’t want in your society.

I imagine we may have a shift to skilled hand labor jobs - trade school type things.

On the other end of the spectrum we’ll have more highly talented people who get paid well to guide our primitive ai, until they too get replaced.

The immediate time frame of 2-4 years is probably a great opportunity for startup founders who find ways to make something useful of Ai tools with combination of some other thing. Creator economy may boom more as people will have the means to do a lot more for a lot less. These don’t require degrees.

I’m the long term this doesn’t seem sustainable though, and something is going to happen - I’m not sure what.

How’s this for thought;

I own a great business that survived covid and lockdowns, now I am needing staff to as we are back up running!

I simply cannot get staff at all, allow me to purchase an AI robot to do what needs to be done as it’s costing me $$ not having staff and I will gladly purchase them!

No sick days, no holidays and no pay increases…I say for my business bring them on!

Haha! Yes, I wish I had a robot to work Saturday mornings for me. Where do I sign up?

In theory, AI should lend itself to lower pricing of good & services even with lower employment, but that doesn't provide much benefit to the people who can't find a job within their scope of ability. As with anything where the pros and cons are essentially the same, reaction comes down to individual perception. It's probably safe to assume that half of the people affected by job loss in your scenerio are going to be thrilled that they have the opportunity to break out of their cubicles and get their hands dirty. The other half are going to flounder, resist, and resent. That's a lot of people to be thrown into poverty in a very short period of time. So what's a viable mitigation for that? Government assistance programs might keep people fed but they are a trap of government dependence that's already really hard to escape. And ultimately its paid for by the people who create the most value. Almost everyone is charitable but almost no one is okay with being forced to be charitable, so the maximum assistance provided is only going to be as high as value-creators allow themselves to be forced into paying for aka the minimum amount required to prevent mass suffering. So perhaps a lucrative opportunity for someone clever might be to focus on utilizing AI to help people find direction in a newly emerging environment that also isn't demeaning through good intention? With AI, integrating psychology, opportunity-discovery, and training into individualized programs should be not nearly as painstaking a process as any of the existing models for career choice & development and definitely more thorough. If it's done right it could be reformulated for the emergence of intelligent robotics. That particular hurdle seems most likely to be the catalyst for collapse if things go south. Government contracts funded through tax systems would in theory have a warmer reception by the high value-creators since it would minimize their tax liability while decreasing individual long-term government dependence. Whether governments would go for that is a bit of a wild card but if it works and there's pressure, eventually, they'll be forced to support it. Until that point, I feel pretty certain many large companies would utilize something like that to lessen the public backlash of switching to AI based productivity.

And they never never ever react emotionally , eternally.

Looking foward to see them enabled in math and engeeering 🐳

I agree