The number of people who spent the past decade complaining about the Fed's artificially low interest rates, only to turn around and constantly complain about their slowness of cutting rates lately (as if 3.75% is super high), is comical.
Discussion
Steve Moran who?
Wasnt anyone on nostr
Monetary policy is a fraud.
C'mon we're just bored, Lyn.
I've just drawn the conclusion that none of the financial leaders at the Fed have any clue what they are talking about or what they are doing. Pass the popcorn.
Perhaps many of them found Bitcoin and built a position.
I think individuals don't believe both things.
I guess weâve lived with rates being low for too long. đ¤ˇ
There is an odd dynamic wherein you notice the Fed prints money, debases the currency, steals from you and everyone else, so you opt into a hard money as a defense against that, but that hard money only gains purchasing power if they continue to debase and steal from everyone. So now you root for them to keep debasing and stealing.
You told is the money was broken and bitcoin has been sideways ever since
Bitcoin was $26k when Broken Money was published.
And it was $65k before thatâŚcome on earlier classesâŚstop moving the goalposts. Something rotten is going on.
And it was $6.9k before that, when I first recommended it.
NGU is required for bitcoin to be successful. It has to be a superior storer of value over space and time. Risk-adjusted. For those who adopted in 2021, it has not been a superior storer of value over time.
Every bitcoin analyst and influencer has been wrong about this âcycleâ ⌠those of us who adopted in 2020/2021 have out both our capital and reputations at risk for this asset and that trust in the protocol has not been rewarded by the market.
Something is off and it is worth trying to understand what and how and to call out any bad actors who are actively manipulating the purchasing power of bitcoin.
Analysts and influencers suggesting âwe havenât been patient enoughâ is disingenuous and I think you understand well enough what I am saying and why there is a large contingent with negative sentimentâŚand maybe a growing resentment of those earlier classes who have enjoyed their windfall and now are changing their tune as we enter into the longest period without meaningful risk-adjusted returns over an entire halving cycle.
Yep itâs been disappointing lately. I expected $150k in 2025 but we only got to $126k.
Thatâs what diversification is for.
Come on Lyn, so something
Do*
It isnât âdo somethingâ ⌠itâs donât âmove the goalpostsâ ⌠donât act as if everything is fine and if youâre not acting like everything is fine then âyouâre a part of the problemâ or âshould have known betterâ. No other bitcoin adopters have gone this long without a period of euphoria to help with the pain of the volatility.
Every analyst and influencer who is acting like âeverything is fineâ had a large allocation that has gone through a 10x+ windfall. Those who made a large allocation during the last euphoric bull run have held for ~4+ years, went through an 80% drawdown, and are now up less than 2x on that allocation. Thatâs bad risk management for an investor.
Bitcoin has recently failed on a key tenet of acting as money (transmit value over space and time) for those people. Maybe there are not many of us, but more INFLOOENCERS should show some empathy to those of us who are bitcoiners but have been put through significant pain for coming up on 5 years without relief.
Anyone who discovered the Bitcoin bug in 2021 has been rug pulled from an exponential move in dollar terms, I share that frustration.
The reality is, if we are complaining about only a 2x from the 2021 TOP we are spoiled. A good bitcoiner DCAâs to level out the volatility anyway.
Lyn will say âNo one is owed a bull marketâ
Just have to face the fact that dollar performance did not match exuberant expectations.
I disagree. If someone (đđźââď¸) held through the 80% drawdown then theyâre 100% âowed a bull marketâ if bitcoin is what we say it isâŚthat is a superior money, moving value over space and time. Risk-adjusted returns require compensation for that downside volatility. Absolute returns are a useless measure. Itâs all about volatility adjusted returns.
Yeah unfortunately who "owes" people this? We can't just go crying to someone and demand a bull run. The best we can do is try to convince others to opt out of fiat.
Or get used to the idea that maybe Bitcoin will never actually be the money of the world. Maybe it being freedom money for a small portion of open minded people is good enough.
Revolutions almost always fail. I'm all in on this one sink or swim.
I think the challenge for bitcoin is that in order to be a superior monetary technology, it MUST transmit superior value over space and time. As soon as it loses one or both of those functions for a long duration, the thesis starts to implode. I agree that people can't get caught up on short duration price fluctuations but 5 years isn't a short duration. It needs to perform on a risk-adjusted basis when we start to talk about 4+ year durations. Either bitcoin is a superior money technology or it isn't. There isn't a huge amount of ambiguity on whether the thesis is holding.
> diversification
#btcfail
#btcfail
Looks like Jay Powell read your book, Lyn.
https://au.investing.com/news/economy-news/powell-on-us-debt-the-path-is-unsustainable-93CH-4227911
Selfishly hoping for lower mortgage rates with the rate cuts so I can refinance. Once I do that then they're too low
As a SLIGHTLY older Brit, I can remember paying 15% interest on my mortgage. You kids of today donât know youâre born. đ
Follow the incentive, and you see very fast why people do what they do
Time to make your own minds up, big boy decisions, that is capitalism, that is making money with decision making, get it wrong, itâs gone, get it right, and your capital grows
nostr:nevent1qqsdnghz3nd2ycxjr9t5el26rddcuhhexlksl0h45wq48u2mdscdw2sc82vxr
The uncanny valley between clowns and comedians.
Everyone hates manipulation until the free money stops.
Probably frustrated because they were reckless before, but now theyâre acting quite sensibly
They certainly just want Bitcoin to go up
Same complainers.
Different rates.
Same cope.
Iâm just complaining because a group of old men decide the economic stability of the entire world by counterfeiting money.