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Prediction: AI is going to be a revolutionary *interface* to the ocean of software and tools we already use (including those that build more software and tools) that will unlock vast amounts of application function that is simply lost due to illiteracy and a far too vast information space.

Check out how Microsoft Copilot works: AI is more akin to the revolution in computer interfacing that the mouse and keyboard were, or that multi-touch was for the smartphone revolution, than it is a standalone app with some new specific functionality. It will end up being a computer (or internet) wide, contextually relevant knowledge base for how to use any and all of the tools available to you, as if it's all just a single, universal UI system to accomplish whatever you need at any moment.

AI will be able to use ALL of our apps, better than you we for most of them because it doesn't have to "learn" them. To the point that we might not need to bother to ever know how to use many apps, programs, CLI tools, or functions on our computers, because if the AI knows how to accomplish what we are looking for by using them, why bother?

Think about it like a calculator: Why learn how to manually do long division when it's just the "divide" button on one of numerous devices always within reach? Or having a physical map: why remember directions when you have a live map with traffic updates at all times in your pocket. One that speaks directions out loud?

This same relationship is about to apply to basically any or all software on your computer. It can integrate with web requests, run conversions, knows all the commands in your command line by heart and which ones will help in your current task, it will predict what you might need next, it can accomplish short, simple tasks that you might have needed an app or extension to accomplish before, but now AI can create a script or executable on the fly, specific to the exact situation & instance in which you need the functionality... so then why save it? The AI can just write and execute new code next time, that is specific to the next situation.

I bet that in just a few short years, interacting with a computer *without* an interfacing AI will feel like trying to sprint in knee deep water. This is going to put a 2x-4x growth trend every year in user speed and capacity to accomplish their goals **on top** of Moore's law's already exponential increase in *computing* power.

AI will create an exponential growth of *user* power on top of the already exponential growth in *computational* power.

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Discussion

Brick 2y ago

Did you use ai to write that? So IBM laying off 7800 people to be replaced with AI is for their benefit or the people?

The tech sector is just getting started, and I'm sure it'll be great for a few and worse for many. That's my prediction because I've seen this before.

Guy Swann 2y ago

lol, I DID use AI to modify a contract over the weekend and check for inconsistencies and contradictions, and I DID use AI just to remember the word "multi-touch" because i couldn't remember what the hell the name for the touch interface was to save my life. Only took 2 steps of vague prompting for ChatGPT to give it to me.

But no, i did write the rest of the note while I've just been on brain overdrive thinking about AI all day. I've been using these tools like crazy and trying to figure out what they are going to mean and how we relate to them. I'm growing to think "interface" is the proper placement. (that might change tomorrow 😂, things move fast)

Guy Swann 2y ago

There's no point in wasting resources for a job that can be done for free. There is no time in which new technology doesn't force change, it's necessary for productivity and wealth creation (and yes for *everyone, not just the rich).

The problem with the IBM and corporate giants is that they may have centralized, proprietary *ownership* of massive AI platforms, which will suck up wealth, instead of unleash it. We are in a race where we need to build and distribute these tools in open source versions to everyone. That, in combination with fixing the money, will fix the incentive inversion that has sustained these enormous, inefficient corporate giants to begin with. Without the debt, inflationary financing system we currently have, these huge institutions would never naturally be sustainable anyway.

The correction is coming, and it's going to happen fast. But it's also going to create a staggering amount of wealth and unlock tons of opportunity for those who can recognize and take advantage of it.

Brick 2y ago

It didn't with finance when automations came out, which insurance, medical, and tech sectors also utilize. It didn't within the auto industry with robots. Customer service is now a chat bot that always leads to me calling someone. So far I can't think of one field that added more jobs and distributed more wealth fairly due to automations, ML or AI. The money all went upwards. My guess is the big players will hire small groups of ML or AI coders to create new bots that will interrogate chatgpt services to write their own code, and keep a small group on board for maintenance. We'll have to wait and see, but I don't share your optimism.

Guy Swann 2y ago

You’re describing a consequence of a terrible money and economic system that doesn’t communicate value and centralized resources through astounding amounts of unsustainable financing… and falsely equating it to technology.

The tech that these corporations implemented, the quality loss of their services, and the disconnect from their customer base has everything to do with unsustainable financing and political money, and nothing to do with the technology. It can be better thought of as watering down wine with a new chemical covering instead of just tap water, and then calling it innovation. What really happened is technology advanced at the same time as our money lost its value. So real sugar got replaced with fake chemical substitutes. Real food got replaced with cheap corn and bread fillers. Solid products went plastic and cheap and built to last a year instead of a lifetime. And first of all to get cut when is customer service and quality of customer interaction.

This is totally a result of bad money and political economics. The technology trends you mention have nothing to do with it other than it being the means by which huge, unsustainable corporations attempted to hide the real value loss behind their nominal gains. Major corporations today aren’t wealth creators, they are wealth destroyers. But the corruption of our money covers this up.

Brick 2y ago

So why do you think those sectors won't do the same with AI? I feel like you just proved my point.

₿irdbear 2y ago

I think I understand what you're saying but I'd like to expand/posit on the issue of "free" and "wealth" being either attainable or desirable. While there may be no point in wasting resources for a job that can be done for free I wonder what the impact on our collective human energy grid can tolerate while experimenting within the time limit of our lifespan. If my labor becomes obsolete, what function do I have outside of generating heat and waste? Is that an ecosystem that the earth can sustain? What it costs in electricity and mining alone are natural limits themselves for an evolution toward a sustainable balance of "life" (as we can comprehend it).

If we destroy ourselves in order to advocate for some better, simpler, exciting technology, who's to say that the great failure won't be our own extinction but it's?

It leads me to propagandize that "wealth" is equally unsustainable as measured within our confines. What we sacrifice on this pursuit of unsustainable wealth accumulation and distribution toward what seems like superior computing advantages undoes millennia of intelligence evolution and drives chaos further between each other which incentivizes uncontrolled growth toward a state of intelligence that is (of course, arguably) not worth having. The problem has never been the resources, its been a refusal toward cohesion in lieu of gain. If I sacrifice your agenda, who's left and how can I expect that a processor can ever do better?

What bitcoin offers is a slower and more radical transformation of how we can work together and what we can develop if we use the wasted resources of our lives to generate a reliable source of value (not wealth) for our children and theirs.

Guy Swann 2y ago

I think we are going to have to define words here. Wealth = prosperity = captured value. You seem to be confusing our recent decades of wealth *destruction* as it’s pursuit and creation. Then laying those imbalances over the path into the future as if this is some inevitable and inextricably linked reality of trying to pursue progress. It is not. What you are describing is the consequence of “progress” being disconnected from reality through a money that transfers lies through the economy about what is actually valuable.

Ie. The money is broken such that it gives nominal gain to endeavors that are true *losses* when weighed against reality.

This is a consequence of bad money misaligning economic incentives, not some fundamental truth of how technology and progress are antithetical to human flourishing. They are not.

gowtywood⚡️🦉 2y ago

🏆

₿irdbear 2y ago

I see your point but how do we distinguish those wealth effects while abandoning the mentality that drove/financed/developed its existence? Like, at what point do we realize the atomic bomb was more destructive than good? If we couldn't be responsible with traditional finance/banking practices how can we so decidedly assume that it (AI) will actually serve a benefit to society? Are we bored? Are we overstimulated? Can we recognize what a benefit is at all?

And that's not to say exploring AI isn't worthwhile at all but it looks like the boundaries between thought/human emotion/connection are being blurred to the point that I wonder how man's conscience will safely see it through. While our understanding of value has only significantly shifted with the evolution of bitcoin, I consider it infant in its life and I wonder how much of tech growth is actually natural because of the misaligned incentives that promulgate its development.

While I do believe that the curiosity to explore intelligence is organic I just have to wonder what we're turning into, what my children are turning into and what repercussions might actually be irreversible.

mcshane 2y ago

na. good technology can make labor easier and more creative on the whole. people choosing not to adapt or learn new skills are laggards. sure jobs will be lost but the jobs opportunities for everyone at home just hockeysticked

Brick 2y ago

You don't have to learn anything, you just ask a robot to do it. How long until big sectors realize they can do that themselves?

Guy Swann 2y ago

How many calculations is your computer doing for you right now, that you can’t or don’t know how to do on your own? Your asking a robot to do 1000s of things for you every single day already.

Brick 2y ago

Computers aren't robots, computers could run robots though. CPU cycles/time (computations) to complete instructions aren't the same as asking a chat bot to perform a task for you. That comparison doesn't work. How many computations does a z15 mainframe perform per second? You think IBM can't modify a fraction of that time to ask AI to perform duties or tasks for them? I understand you all are having fun with AI but you can't compete with multi-million dollar machines that have a 95% uptime, on average. I worked at an Enterprise with 4 mainframes and those cpc drawers can contain hundreds of CPUs, per draw, to run entire States or big businesses. Our DB2 systems could perform getpage requests at 10 million pages per second. Not that ibm would use DB2 with AI, but those machines handle data like nothing else on this planet. I wish you guys luck though, and I could be wrong too.

YEGHRO 2y ago

Not long enough.

Guy Swann 2y ago

I'll make it longer next time. Blame #nostr for not putting a limit on my text based rants.

GigaBTC 🌽⚡️🔑 2y ago

I hear you, but the other place this can go is to where everyone is dependent on machines and can no longer function without assistance. Then the computer does that automatic firing thingy.

Guy Swann 2y ago

We already reached that point a long time ago arguably 🤔

GigaBTC 🌽⚡️🔑 2y ago

Probably true, but as a read your post the example of the AI assistant spinning up the correct terminal commands on the fly, leading to why would I write this down or memorize it, hit home.

Guy Swann 2y ago

I did that with a few short scripts that I saved, but realized yesterday that I only ever used once. I started to make a folder and try to organize them… then it struck me: I can get ChatGPT to make a new one faster than I could figure out which one of these does the job I need, or needs to be modified to work in this new situation - and I was like, so why save these? 🤯

GigaBTC 🌽⚡️🔑 2y ago

A slippery slope, but I can’t argue against your logic.

brah 2y ago

AI is garbage lol

Don’t need it

Don’t want it

Chilidem 2y ago

This is one of the more rational AI takes I've seen. I really like the mouse and keyboard analogy.

OriginalSize 2y ago

Interface is something that's clicked for me too. Especially once you realize that there's a capability overhang you see an opportunity to learn what the current AIs can do and then translate that so the uninitiated can make use of these without having to get to know them so well.

Tech Engineer 2y ago

Very interesting prediction. I think you might be right.

What you just described reminded me of people in sci fi movies using computers. They just make a few hand gestures and say a few things and have a 3d holographic of what they are looking for instantly in front of them.

nobody 2y ago

If AI is going to leverage tech in such a huge way, which I have no doubt it will, that means prices for everything will finally start go down, right? Lol

Guy Swann 2y ago

Prices measured in what though? 😆😘

nobody 2y ago

Of course, the only immutable commodity we have access to.

₿

God I love this place.

Michael Matulef 2y ago

The greater productivity of work under the division of labor is a unifying influence. It leads men to regard each other as comrades in a joint struggle for welfare, rather than as competitors in a struggle for existence. It makes friends out of enemies, peace out of war, society out of individuals.

Mises

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WheresAlan 2y ago

All economic activity! All jobs will eventually be be done better, more efficiently, and higher quality! What meaning and enrichment in your life? No point. AI is just better at meaning and enrichment! Because it doesn't need them! Amazing!

Wanna play chess? No point! Direct your autogpt to play your other autogpt!

It's a good thing that population collapse is coming. Because with all this AI most of humanity is useless! They die without the inconvenience of me having to euthenize them! Better yet, many of them will kill themselves!

Keep a few around, of course. There is one thing AI and robots can't do: Breathing! We can't just let all this abundant oxygen go to waste.

Progress, friends! Progress!

alCKemy 2y ago

Check out “Life Force” by Tony Robbins, he and his coauthors discuss the medical advances that are about to begin exponential growth as medicine becomes more digital and technology driven. From 3D printed organs, to drug discovery… there are huge changes coming

nym 2y ago

I wonder if it will make life easier for the common pleb?

RealJohnDoe 2y ago

Yes it will. It will increase personal power and sovereignty exponentially. It will blow your mind..💖💎🧡😁

SER 2y ago

The comment about long division is apt, I think. I do think increasingly fewer people understand basic concepts; we've reversed the great education of the masses that began with the printing press. I believe much of the anti-science conspiracy-based sub-culture we've been seeing is a result of this. Maybe we *will* let computers do all of our critical thinking for us, and move increasingly back into a dark ages of wealthy lords ruling superstitious peasants who think spirits make the wind blow, and people who can do algebra are magicians.

I hope not, but that does seem the direction it is going.

the BlindBitcoiner 2y ago 💬 1

If this prediction comes true then that is more the reason for having billions oflittle AIs running around in the internet instead of one gigantic one. Also I would think by having billions of Ai units doing specific tasks the computational power requirements would be spread out over a large area. But that gigantic Ai would need to have its computational power more centralized. Making it more prone to failure or attack. Just a dumb users vantage point.