Thoughts on Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCs)

POSITIVES:

1. BTCs are inevitable at this point in monetary history. Many of us saw them coming many years ago.

2. BTCs put the theory of "Speculative Arbitrage" or "Speculative Attack" into practice. That is, they sell/short depreciating US dollars and go long/buy appreciating bitcoin. -- This is a *nearly* surefire way to increase purchasing power over time.. and will hasten the transfer of purchasing power from traditional fiat assets into the Bitcoin network.

3. Done well--by employing shrewd levels of leverage and well-constructed financial instruments at opportune times--BTCs may outperform bitcoin over a multi-year period.

4. Many current and future strategies of "mining fiat" by BTCs will perform well during a bull market, and should serve to increase "bitcoin yield" over time... benefitting bitcoin-focused shareholders.

NEGATIVES:

1. The more BTCs that exist, the more downward pressure will build upon their respective mNAVs.

2. Many current and future strategies of "mining fiat" by BTCs will perform poorly during a bear market, likely resulting in extreme declines in share price and--more significantly--loss of balance sheet bitcoin via margin calls and/or outright sales to maintain solvency.

3. The management of many current and future BTCs will inevitably deploy "too much" leverage "too late" into a bull market and will put their operating company and bitcoin and shareholders at risk.

4. Poor management decisions and fees will lead to chronic underperformance of many BTCs.

5. Trusting BTC managers (and their custodians) to safely custody their (and their shareholders) bitcoin is its own risk over individual custody in cold storage. Though more convenient, there will be more points of failure.

6. Most importantly, Bitcoin isn't just some speculative fiat asset... IT IS, LITERALLY, A COMPLETELY NEW AND BETTER FORM OF MONEY, WITH IT'S OWN FINANCIAL ECOSYSTEM AND GLOBAL ECONOMY. Intertwining, fiat assets and Wall Street products with the Bitcoin monetary and financial network continues to empower and encourage the traditional fiat system, with its perverse incentives and power structures.

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OPINION:

I don't begrudge those OG Bitcoiners who are participating in BTCs... which seem to be the darlings of the current Bitcoin bull market. In fact, as a traditional hedge fund manager-turned-Bitcoiner, I have one foot in the fiat world and one foot in Bitcoin... so I am the Chief of Hypocrites.

But I think that we--and future generations--would be best served by simply removing ourselves from the current fiat economy and focusing our TIME and ENERGY into building better products and services on the (completely separate and sustainable) Bitcoin network.

This will hasten the separation of Money and State and will allow us to more quickly engineer a better tomorrow.

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Just my two sats. Hope it helps.

Onward and upward.

The biggest risk I see over the coming 6-12 months--among both normies and many Bitcoiners--is a general unpreparedness for potential extreme upside bitcoin price volatility in fiat terms.

Consider yourself warned.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Michigan announced today that federal charges have been filed against Yunqing Jian, 33, and Zunyong Liu, 34, a Chinese couple accused of smuggling a fungus identified as a “dangerous biological pathogen” into the United States.

Mr. Liu faces charges of conspiracy, smuggling goods, making false statements, and visa fraud after allegedly bringing the fungus Fusarium graminearum through Detroit Metropolitan Airport so that he and his partner, Ms. Jian, could study it further at a University of Michigan laboratory.

Fusarium graminearum, described in scientific literature as a “potential agroterrorism weapon,” causes disease in crops such as wheat, barley, maize, and rice, leading to potential crop devastation and health risks like vomiting and liver damage if ingested. It is blamed for “billions of dollars in economic losses worldwide each year.”

The complaint also alleges that both Liu and Jian received funding from the Chinese government for their research on the fungus while in China, with Ms. Jian reportedly being a committed member of the Chinese Communist Party.

It's so incredibly hard to hear someone go off about "how expensive everything is" and how "we dont get paid enough" and "how low wages are"...

Then explain to them that inflation literally causes all of this, and that the reason it feels like running on a treadmill is because **by default you get poorer if you dont get at least a 7% raise every year.**

And then they say "but nobody would buy anything if money got more valuable, it would ruin the economy."

Mothafukr you are LITERALLY linking the chains that you complain about weighing you down.

Race weekend ready-

Time to start living out of a suitcase again 🥲

Steak followed by a cold dip 🥩🌊☀️