nostr:npub1pm5z0gmw3wcvl3yreuv8y7q3stz2zmzc4jar4ckhk927qdcwjwuq3txe07 which pay for AI is the better value for price and performance between venice.ai and trymaple.ai?
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Listen if you think BTC stops growing I concede this a a bad idea. However, their fixed costs (10.5% on $8B) are small relative to their capital stack ($58B btc) so they can bridge any market type short term. Those fixed costs are their product, so in a scenario where their prefs continue to grow rapidly as they are, they keep growing their capital stack faster than just holding BTC - this is easy to imagine if btc does 20-30 CAGR% over medium to long term. However it’s balanced by adding counterparty credit risk to operate, there is no free lunch.
I’m not saying you or anyone should invest or not, but to imply they have a risk of collapse in a growing or short term stagnant BTC market is wrong I think. Their structure makes sense relying on two key factors -> counterparty risk of operating the business + BTC going up. Either of these fail MSTR will fail too.
Thanks for the chat. 🙏
Fair enough that the path to get to and from $85k to next year or even further matters for a derivatives strategy. So let’s assume MSTR is completely flat in perpetuity for next 5 years at $85k, no big rate reductions to lower their dividend payments and in 2028 they need to either issue equity or sell some BTC to fund current $0.9B burn rate (and let’s assume the 5 yrs of steady above market pref returns does not attract new capital). If mNAV is below 1 they sell BTC to do for next 2 years to get to 2030 that’s 3% of holding. So what - they need a 3% rise in BTC $ price after 5 years to stay flat? I only think this matters if you think BTC will not compound 20-30% CAGR over next 10-15 years with up to 5 year periods of sideways action. They can bridge 5-10 years if they have too and they will still have largest corporate stack by an order of magnitude.
That’s not exactly accurate. They have $1.4B in a cash reserve 21 months of dividends to support the preferred equities. They can tap the ATM on the at preset $8B of prefs even if the prefs don’t grow. They can sell covered calls against their BTC to also generate cash if BTC stays at $85k. They have stated if it stays flat they estimate needed to sell by 2065 based on a derivatives play (I have not checked math but I think it’s closer to 2040)
Nah it’s $8.2B in convertible debt, or about 12% levered. This list everything on their website https://www.strategy.com/
Just the start unfortunately, we will need to pushback in the US RE digital IDs https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/09/rahm-emanuel-says-u-s-should-follow-australias-youth-social-media-ban-00682185
Re-watched https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MhPSl00UDVE
Really great conversation, thank you! Buying your book for my mom
JPM attacking Strategy is a good sign they are threatened
Capitulation is coming
Sounds like an opportunity for nostr:nprofile1qqsf960jkzjpecendet5vq8mhzlljdawvxfjktf5lhpenlw2ywmhj7qpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsn9ua8g
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When line of credit? Very excited for this
Has China Become The New Risk-Free Rate?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/has-china-become-new-risk-free-rate
No
People need to struggle to feel accomplished and therefore alive. Removing the need for income does not change our need to struggle.
Thank you for what you do! Been waiting for this! 🫡
There are those who say Bitcoin doesn't scale, and build blockchains with more throughput at the cost of more centralization (generally in the form of it being way harder to run a node), and then also point to Bitcoin as having low fees as a criticism.
The limiter it turns out, 16 years in, is not how many people *can* self-custody bitcoin. It's how many people *want* to.
Not everyone wants to deal with the technicalities of their own car, and not everyone wants to handle the technicalities of their own money. Quite few, in fact. It's always a subset for these types of things. People who are hardcore over their area of knowledge.
I leave my car details to pros down the street who I know the name of, and handle my money myself. There are those who handle their own cars but leave their money details to others.
Bitcoin currently processes about as many transactions per year as Fedwire, which handles $1 quadrillion worth of gross settlement volume per year for the US and for a good chunk of the world (in context, it's approximately 200 million $5 million average-sized transactions). That's actually a crazy stat. Bitcoin is casually this open-source global Fedwire with its own scarce units, and unlike Fedwire anyone can permissionlessly build on it or transact with it, for low fees despite it being a +$2T network. And if it gets clogged there are all sorts of permissionless layers above it with certain trade-offs.
Some people say paper bitcoin holders detract from the network. I say the opposite- their willingness to hold IOUs helps add to price stability and network size without clogging it. That leaves more room for cypherpunks to develop with, and work on. And those who finance them.
This has been foreseen as early as Hal Finney in 2010, when he wrote about bitcoin banks (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2500.msg34211#msg34211).
We live in a sweet spot by most metrics. A golden age. Historically, so few recognize it when they have it so good.
Bitcoin is big enough to be of interest to many, and yet is still niche enough in a global context to have low base-layer fees. Suitcoiners are happy to add to its scale, and yet cypherpunks can also build, and users can transact right on the base layer, and move to Lightning and Ark and BitVM and Liquid and any sort of trade-off they want if fees get high.
And you're bearish, anon?
The real battle, though, is the ongoing government crackdown on privacy.
Bitcoin itself is in a pretty good technical place. It's a great tool. Certain conservative low-risk covenants might make it better, but even the existing design space is great and still expanding.
The US, Europe, and China cracking down on privacy is the threat. The headwind. And they're all expected. They're not surprising, but they're indeed fierce. That's the real battle- for the hearts and minds of people to embrace why privacy and permissionlessness are good traits.
In this ongoing funny contrast between podcasters and developers, that's the ideal role of podcasters- to spread the good news of what developers have built. To educate people. To tell them what's now possible thanks to developers. To articulate why cypherpunk values are good to a broad non-technical audience. That's where the overlap is. In overly-simplistic D&D terms, those with high CHA try to spread the work of those with high INT. It's not so much that "governments" are the problem. Governments often at least partially represent the people. If you convince a lot of people that privacy and sound money are good things, then you defang the problem. And you also challenge them legally in jurisdictions where it makes sense.
The technical foundation is good. The development of the past 16 years has been amazing, and it has brought us here. The scale has reached institutions, which is expected, not a threat. The actual threat is not treasury companies; it's anti-privacy regulations by governments. And more deeply that's a social issue, given how many people accept it. A vast amount of people believe privacy is only important for bad people who have something to hide. There's a ton of education work to do on it. Privacy is good. It's the default. But most people don't realize it when it comes to money.
We're winning. For 16 years ya'll have been amazing. But we'll need another 16 years more. More developers. More podcasters. All of it. We're a $2 trillion in market cap entering into a global fiat network of hundreds of trillions. And as their own institutions melt down from their own failures, their own top-heavy demographics and false promises, they will look for scapegoats. They will look toward those who are winning, and say they are the enemy.
When interviewers ask my price predictions, I tend to be conservative. That's mostly a liquidity assessment, and a rotation from OGs to new buyers. Price growth does take time.
But under that surface, I also have the benefit of being a general partner at among the largest bitcoin-only venture funds. I see what people are building, and I'm bullish. And for those who are working on stuff that doesn't align with profit, entities like the HRF and OpenSats are doing great work. Across all of the options, people are building great things.
I couldn't be more bullish on the ecosystem that's in place. All of you.
Let's go.
Good evening.
“The actual threat is not treasury companies; it's anti-privacy regulations by governments.” As always Lyn is 🎯
nostr:nprofile1qqs0w2xeumnsfq6cuuynpaw2vjcfwacdnzwvmp59flnp3mdfez3czpsprpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezumr0wpczuum0vd5kzmp0ksxxx2 ?
MSTR is aiming to be 2x as volatile as BTC. So margin loans to buy MSTR are 2x as bad as margin loans to buy BTC - i.e. isn’t the lesson leverage and BTC don’t mix
Great episode. Seems clear Mr. Chanos does not agree that other btc treasury co. competition is beneficial, not burdensome, to MSTR - which seems like the flaw in his argument, that Pierre nailed