Avatar
preston
85080d3bad70ccdcd7f74c29a44f55bb85cbcd3dd0cbb957da1d215bdb931204
Bitcoin & Books. GP at Ego Death Capital @PrestonPysh on Twitter.

Substantial BTC spread between Gemini (running a premium) and other exchanges. Anyone know what’s up?

I think they probably expected a recession by now, in which they would offload their longer duration debt when rates reset lower (I think all these banks are in the exact same boat, just a couple steps behind SVB).

Replying to Avatar allen

I don’t wanna get too ahead of myself but we may be about to see a major public reckoning on what on earth banks even are and what they are supposed to do.

SVB didn’t go down due to “the tech bubble” or really anything to do with “banking Silicon Valley” being a bad idea. if anything, it’s a great idea! Their deposits went up ~2.5x in 2 years because there was a shit load of cash that needed to be banked! (debate separately to what extent that was a ZIRP phenomenon. I’m not saying this was good in the grand scheme of things. just that, in context, it was good business).

the problem is what to put the money in. most nocoiners seem to think that their deposits just sit there “as money,” and although I’m sure they don’t imagine notes in a vault, exactly, to a large extent that was true for SVB: they held treasuries - the “risk free” asset lmfao - which is as close to cash as you can get in a liquid security.

the conundrum here is that there literally is no such thing as “liquid dollars” - there is only credit. all dollar assets are somebody else’s debt. for all intents and purposes, treasuries *are dollars*. the idea of “keeping it in cash” at the relevant magnitudes is literally nonsensical. what would it even mean? deposit it at *another bank*? that hardly solves the problem!

the further you tug at this thread, the more you realise that dollars can only really be defined as vacuous promises by the US government to … one day give you slightly more dollars?!? that realisation is now getting aired in public.

I think the first consequence as this starts to sink in will be a massive preference for shorter term debt that can just be rolled over and over and over because the lesson of SVB is the duration sensitivity is absolutely not worth it. you can literally evaporate hundreds of billions of dollars by getting that just a little wrong even though you didn’t have much of a choice (“RISK FREE ASSET” LOLOLOLOLOLOL) this is yet another example of fiat driving up time preference and corrupting the information signals necessary to coordinate long-term capital investment. but oh well, the currency is collapsing so we have bigger fish to fry than the yield of long-dated bonds 😂

but the juicy bit is that we may be on the cusp of this reasoning, and the insanity of fractional reserve and central banking, finally being aired in public as people try to make sense of all this.

or maybe not, I dunno. maybe I’m naive. but I’m also bullish 🤙

💯

It’s interesting. If inflation keeps going down (like it did for 40 years), you make way more “money” by sitting in the longest duration bond you can own. But when inflation starts getting higher than the average yield on bonds, you NEED to own the shortest duration debt that’s issued to protect against impairment. Lots of country club executives about to learn that lesson the hard way.

But to your much bigger point, Allen…The whole system is a giant Ponzi. To navigate this lie (especially at this point), you need to have a really deep understanding of how the fiat lie works. Most business owners are focused on their operations, not outpacing the fierce debasement and unwind of an 80 year globally constructed fiat credit farce.

Replying to Avatar paulo

There they are! 🤣

To believe it’s gone you first have to believe it was there all along.

When I was a kid, I remember watching an old Batman TV show and Robin said to Batman, “Batman! We could have been killed…or worse.” I remember laughing so hard because it was so dumb.

This headline takes me back to that moment. “Stablecoin Issuer Circle Reveals $3.3 Billion Exposure to Silicon Valley Bank”.

It’s turtles all the way down, folks. There’s Bitcoin and then there’s everything else.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-11/usd-coin-stablecoin-falls-further-from-peg-on-svb-exposure-risk

🤣 I know Paul (MB Roland) really well. Not only were we classmates at West Point, my barracks room was 1 door down when we were cadets. Great guy. He would tell us about starting his distillery when he was a cadet. None of us believed he would do it. He did.

I mean everyone’s preference is different but Blanton’s is just outstanding for me personally…