Remember that former bitcoiner you met? The one who got orange pilled, went down the rabbit hole, had the majority of his net worth in bitcoin, then changed his mind and aped back into dollars? Me neither.

It's a one-way function...numbers might change here and there, but the trend is undeniable.

Let's see...that's all the new supply, plus 1,584 more coins, gobbled up per day. If carried on through the current halving epoch, that'd be all new supply + 428k coins. If the same demand remains through next halving epoch, that'd be current supply + about 3m coins over those 4 years.

So call it 3.5m coins over next 4.5 years.

Haven't looked at liquid vs illiquid supply in a while...I think liquid supply is only 1-2 million coins.

The only way that this can carry on is for long-term hodlers to become more enticed by what they can trade their sats than they're enticed by hodling them.

Hodlers are very enticed by holding sats 😎

I've heard arguments that current economic policies can't even be classified as Keynesian...

Keynesian economics stresses that governments should be the lender of last resort during a downturn/depression, and build reserves during surpluses to fund that lending. That second part has only happened for about two years in the 52 years since Nixon Shock. All we do now is run trillion dollar deficits & create dollars from nothing.

"You're the exit liquidity for their token scam"

Sucks that normies are oblivious to this

TIL that inflation is a right-wing talking point.

She enjoys enunciating ex-trod-in-ory

Sustainable 2-5% daily yield...makes sense.

You could start with $1 and own all the world's assets in under two years at 5% daily return.

In an unrelated story, all executives of Fitch ratings agency are about to undergo IRS audits of their personal finances, and have mysteriously been shadowbanned on their social media accounts...

I forget where, but I heard recently that end to end encrypted chats are in the works for some nostr projects.

Some bathing suits I've owned have a little mesh pocket on the inside of the waistband. I am comfortable putting a folded $20 bill in there, in case I want a sno-cone or something. If the ocean decides it's gonna take that $20, so be it...I accept the risk for the functionality it offers.

Not gonna put my life savings in that little pocket, though.

I regrettably am going to discontinue using #orangepillapp. I dig the idea and was able to connect with some bitcoiners, however their marketing has become really sleazy. The bar keeps getting lower. Hopefully they'll change their approach and can earn my recommendation and subscription again.

Important distinction between transaction number and transaction volume. Say someone makes 100 transactions/month, totalling 10m sats, maybe 95 of them are on a custodial lightning wallet, and 5 are lightning or on-chain self-custody transactions. However, those 95 custodial transactions might only have been for 100k sats, and the sovereign transactions were 9.9m sats.

"Usage" needs to be further explored.

Send fiat via ach...you're giving your privkey to counterparty & trusting that their fear of violent retribution by the state will keep them from sweeping all your funds to themselves.

Send sats...you're giving your counterparty the agreed upon amount and only the agreed upon amount, and trusting the network, and the impossibility of reversing a SHA-256 hash.

I know which one I trust...

Can proxy TG through tor, via orbot...messages work the same, videos are slower to load ofc.

SimpleX is a potential TG alternative I'm seeing

Good source of signal, and Twitter made my account read-only when I wouldn't give them my cell phone number.

NVK has said something to the effect of when considering your setup, figure that BTCUSD is 10x what it is now...it'll probably be there sooner than you think, and when it's there, fees might be high and you'll be more anxious about moving your hodl around.

I think up to 5% is reasonable...but then again, if someone had $2k of BTC and wanted to buy a coldcard, I would support that decision. New security devices that increase your knowledge & experience are valuable in that respect though too.

Also keep in mind that if you're comparing it to other investments, 5% might sound like a high expense, but there are zero ongoing expenses for hodling.

Ledger moves further and further down my list of favorite/recommended HW device every year...

They used to be what I'd give friends/family when setting them up with their own sats, but I can't in good conscience give them a Ledger anymore. Primary reason is I know they'll be inundated with shitcoin nonsense whenever they use the native app. Now I can add this to the list.

How does one monetize stolen CC info these days? Not by ordering online and having it shipped to your house...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-03-01/cleaning-up-crypto-getting-warmer-episode-2