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techfeudalist
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Blessed by tech; working to bring the benefits to everyone. Freedom, incorruptible money, privacy.

Yep. The only time I could see myself buying property now is when it was somehow special for my family and I couldn’t otherwise rent it. Quality time with the family is more scarce than bitcoin. 💕

I’ve sold off most of my real estate already. I’m down to a few rental properties, which I can’t sell fast enough. (And, of course, real estate isn’t as liquid as bitcoin either.)

I was recently chatting about this with a friend of mine who was complaining about stuff going wrong at his house and cottage and how he couldn’t find contractors to take care of it. I was grateful that I don’t have these problems anymore.

Also, keep in mind that real estate requires a down payment and that’s bitcoin you need to sell, or bitcoin you didn’t buy.

If you consider the 20% down payment, you’ll be trading massive capital appreciation in bitcoin for the relatively small income stream you’re getting from the property over the lifetime of the mortgage.

I haven’t seen any case where real estate (even with the income stream) makes any financial sense over the long term.

This is a big mind twist for normie financial types. The current system is based off debt and they can’t imagine it any other way.

This fiat system is the bizzaro world to bitcoin’s hard money system.

Fiat continuously loses value and we get poorer as bankers steal our standard of living. Bitcoin continuously gains value and we see our standard of living increase over time.

The fiat system is based on debt and turns most people into debt slaves.

The bitcoin system will be based on equity and will encourage people to become business partners.

Yep, it’s a tough problem.

Hardware wallets breach privacy because they look like bitcoin / crypto devices and disclose to border guards that you’re holding something (for people who travel a lot and have no fixed base). IMHO for digital nomads it’s better to use ephemeral offline operating systems like tails.

Using a company like Unchained solves inheritance but breaches privacy because they are a honeypot and do KYC on their clients.

Storing large amounts of bitcoin is not trivial.

For example, what’s a way to store large amounts privately, securely and provide inheritance?

By privately, I mean only you know that you’re a bitcoiner.

Securely means safe from access from anyone other than yourself.

Inheritance means your bitcoin are received by your select heirs only when you die?

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

I spoke at a big bitcoin-adjacent company this week and one of the best questions was from someone who asked what the downsides of bitcoin adoption might be.

I always do appreciate these steelman questions, the skeptical questions, the ones where we challenge ourselves. Only when we can answer those types of questions do we understand the concept that we are promoting.

So the classic example is that in modern economic literature, "deflation is bad". This, however, is only the case in a highly indebted system. Normally, deflation is good. Money appreciates, technology improves, and goods and services get cheaper over time as they should. Price of Tomorrow covers this well. My book touches on this too, etc. The "deflation is bad" meme is still alive in modern economic discourse and thus is worth countering, but I think in the bitcoin spectrum of communities, people get that deflation is fine and good.

My answer to the question was in two parts.

The first part was technological determinism. In other words, if we were to re-run humanity multiple times, there are certain rare accidents that might not replicate, and other commonalities that probably would. Much like steam engines, internal combustion engines, electricity, and nuclear power, I think a decentralized network of money is something we would eventually come across. In our case, Bitcoin came into existence as soon as the bandwidth and encryption tech allowed it to. In other universes or simulations it might look a bit different (e.g. might not be 21 million or ten minute block times exactly), but I think decentralized real-time settlement would become apparent as readily as electricity does, for any civilization that reaches this point. So ethics aside, it just is what it is. It exists, and thus we must deal with it.

The second part was that in my view, transparency and individual empowerment is rarely a bad thing. Half of the world is autocratic. And half of the world (not quite the same half) deals with massive structural inflation. A decentralized spreadsheet that allows individuals to store and send value can't possibly be a bad thing, unless humanity itself is totally corrupted. I then went into more detail with examples about historical war financing, and all sorts of tangible stuff. In other words, a whole chapter full of stuff. I've addressed this in some articles to.

In your view, if you had to steelman the argument as best as you could, what are the scenarios where bitcoin is *BAD* for humanity rather than good for it, on net?

In the medium term, bitcoin will be bad for the majority of humanity who are essentially dependent on the welfare state. This includes government workers, the government-industrial complex, and others whose income depends, in large part, on money printing.

This large cohort of people have marginal productivity, far lower than their current social status and income. The adjustment for them will be painful.

I’m imagining that cloud services could be part of the Fediverse. I could run a cloud system for my friends and family.

Apps on any platform could allow you to connect to your chosen Fedi service or default to a central service.

I guess we’ll see how things develop.

I added my starting follows by npub and I went from there by adding their follows.

Perhaps the client can offer a list of currently popular hashtags to filter and view untrusted posts.

Part of the solution might be for each client to limit the view of notes in the global feed and to replies to those in a “trust graph”.

For instance, you trust the people you follow. You would also trust the people they follow, and so forth.

This extension of trust would allow for a sizable global feed without much spam. Someone in your trust graph would need to follow the spammer to make the content visible. Maybe a few would sneak in from time to time, but they would be easy to block.

I’m assuming you’re speaking about the Universe/ global feed. The solution might be to limit your view to those in a “trust graph”.

For instance, you trust the people you follow. You would also trust the people they follow, and so forth.

This extension of trust would allow for a sizable global feed without much spam. Someone in your trust graph would need to follow the spammer to make the content visible.

I was impressed by the design of these devices but I still find it hard to trust a hardware device.

Many issues:

1) it looks like a bitcoin device so you can’t take it through borders.

2) can you really trust the software it’s running?

3) buying one anonymously is difficult. I don’t want to end up on a customer list. I don’t want my bank to know I bought one.

https://foundationdevices.com/passport/

In Oakland California, 10% of the day’s rental cars returned with smashed windows.

https://nitter.nl/KyungLahCNN/status/1686853458996101122#m

In our view, what nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a summarizes in this segment below is one of the most important concepts to grasp when assessing the fiscal (& broader macro) environment of the 2020s.

And trust us, water doesn't work well on grease fires.😉

👇👇👇

"During the 1940s, interest rates were not used as a policy tool to fight inflation, because it was fiscal-driven inflation rather than lending-driven inflation. Instead, the primary policy tools focused on ending the war, ceasing the fiscal deficits, and pivoting back towards a period of financial austerity.

During the 1970s, raising interest rates and performing other actions to reduce the high rate of bank lending was a successful inflation-fighting strategy, because it tackled the problem head on. Other non-monetary policies included improving the supply-side, such as resolving or getting around geopolitical oil embargoes. Federal debt as a percentage of GDP was only 30%, so higher rates on the public debt were manageable compared to the reduced rate of loan creation in the private sector that higher rates led to.

During the 2020s, we have a different problem. Most of the inflation was caused by large 1940s-style fiscal deficits, and yet the Federal Reserve has primarily used a 1970s-style playbook of raising interest rates to deal with it, even though that’s primarily a tool to constrain lending. However, raising interest rates when federal debt is over 100% of GDP substantially increases those deficits at an equal or larger pace than it reduces loan creation in the private sector.

An issue here is that the Federal Reserve doesn’t really know what else to do, because their tools don’t really address deficit-driven inflation; their tools are meant to deal with lending-driven inflation. It’s a fiscal matter, and so the best the Federal Reserve can do is try to suppress the private sector to offset some of what’s happening in the public sector, even though that’s not addressing the core problem.

So as the Federal Reserve raises rates, federal interest expense increases, and the federal deficit widens ironically at a time when deficits were the primary cause of inflation in the first place. It risks being akin to trying to put out a kitchen grease fire with water, which makes intuitive sense but doesn’t work as expected.

[....]

As we look years into the future via the following chart from the Congressional Budget Office, the rising federal debts and deficits will cause the fiscal dominance to continue into increase, which means interest rates become a less and less useful inflation-fighting tool over time."

Full newsletter here: https://www.lynalden.com/july-2023-newsletter/

To bring down inflation, they should lower interest rates and invest into energy like oil and nuclear.

Bringing down energy costs would help a lot and motivate reshoring of factories to increase GDP.

This would moderate inflation over time while allowing the government to inflate away its debt and reduce the debt to GDP level.