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El Guiri
9da75b1f4e3f5ac9779ebecd27ca8032b2632389e1f00e8f9eb5ecd40f24dc6d
Geologist and nature lover
Replying to Avatar Jeff Booth

Speaking in probabilities versus guarantees but I think the highest probability is a chaotic and long transition (especially for those living in fiat) that continues to test the decentralized and secure nature of Bitcoin through our actions. In other words - how many people care?

Here is one very probable scenario that you can see playing out right now (and could see coming from a mile away if you think in first principles and understand human nature)

Most people are pricing bitcoin through US dollar - which ensures centralization of bitcoin and people taking more risk (ETF, microstrategy, etc, etc)

As that system (still inflationary) prices Bitcoin FAR higher in fiat terms, it also underpins a global control structure that is “more” solvent because of Bitcoins dramatic rise in price. (Strategic reserve)

Imperialism 3.0. 1. Gold/USD 2. Petro dollar/ USD 3. Bitcoin/USD

Again, this is all centralizing and many Bitcoin holders today will sell into this and reinforce it because it will seem more convenient and they will “get rich” (Similar to how most people still using Twitter today)

Eventually that system MUST attack Bitcoin and the nodes, economic nodes, decentralized nature of Bitcoin mining pools, communication that can’t be shut down like Cashu, Fedi, Nostr etc will decide its outcome.

If I were the centralizing system, I would not engage in that attack until I thought I could win (ie - not for a long time - but that would also allow Bitcoin to gain more utility as medium of exchange,

Protocol layers listed above, etc)

But, this attack should not be underestimated because it aligns with human nature in thinking short term.

If we prevail, which I think is probable ….(only because I know how deep this thought process goes in this community) then that becomes true hyperbitcoinization as the alternate chain fails and with it the exploitative control structure (including everyone who trusted counterparties)

Or to simplify - we decide what world we’re going to live in and as long as enough people choose truth, hope and abundance - “we” win.

Its the potential food shortages in the interim that will drive some of the decision making amongst populations that are not appreciating the nature of the change. As horrifying as "when money dies" is to read... and it is, the narrative and style requires copious caffeine, its a must.

My conversations today. One land owner who's now wanting to try weekly vegetable crates and possibly chicken for btc and a second whis farm we are going to visit to try crowd funding our local bitcoin community to get some extra cattle on his pastures and maybe pigs. Start small, incorporate local community and orange pill like crazy. Now is probably a good time to get the networks up so more people in local communities truly understand the decision they will have to make

Many builders leaving Germany. I find it interesting signal to personally know of young German couples moving to south Africa as they feel safer for their kids. All engineers

Will future historians label WW3 “the great clown fight”?

Just when you think we’ve reached peak degeneracy……. But wait, there’s more!

Second link requires a little time. Read the first one and interestingly, the first thing that came to mind was Gibraltar! In a time of societal flux and end of debt era, we must simply experiment and find better systems but reading that does also make me think of Sovereign Individual. Have been discussing future of potential sovereign city states with a friend past few years. Thanks for the links, good reading for tomorrow!

That’s always the answer one reads but does that really make sense? I want nukes, I build a few plants to make dirty shit to blow other people up. I then build a load of coal fired plants instead of a bunch of thorium ones? Makes no sense to me

136% 🙄 it’s why as a non economist trying to figure this shit out, I get confused. We effectively have zero true capitalism by my understanding. Free markets possibly haven’t truly existed in centuries and now that we’ve had full global fiat for over 50 years, there’s a loss of transparency of true relative value. Then the whole lot of this is tumbled through a washing machine of rehypothecation and derivative alchemy. How on earth are we supposed to be able to question relative values of different systems or question things like the concepts of capitalism and free markets?

But doesn’t government intervention potentially skew market signals and therefore create the potential for malinvestment of capital? If a capitalist system is defined by capital investment in an efficient manner, that skew, by definition, creates a barrier to efficiency discovery (not sure if that’s the correct way to term that)

🤣🤣🤣🤣 shows my level of paranoia on understanding. Don’t apologise!