$20k by #Nostrasia day?

Where are we?

Once Binance fails, the only major rugs left to pull are ETH and fiat.

Bullish for #Bitcoin nostr:note1ge02kqcw0337ml3vrzuzaxrrucy8ufwvlwletzr8yzj06d5xmqgqnltwda

It's probably not a good idea to mess with mining incentives at this point.

We have a great thing going already.

Holotropic breathwork is a trip 🌌

Not great in the near term. The combination of the Fed doing QT, the Treasury shifting towards longer-duration bond issuance, and China running tight fiscal policy, are all liquidity negative.

I think we grind for a while until something snaps in the Treasury market or something adjacent, and then we do the next leg up in liquidity.

Liquidity bottomed back in Oct 2022 right after 1) the UK bond market outright broke and 2) the US bond market was really wobbly (bad liquidity, high volatility). That was fixed by the Treasury draining its cash account and shortening the duration of its bond issuance.

Ever since around 2013/2014, bitcoin’s price has closely followed the rate of change in the growth of global broad money supply (M2) in USD terms.

In other words, from the perspective of macro investors (which are generally different than network users), it is the asset that best serves as a pure-play on changes in global liquidity. It’s a hedge against monetary inflation, not CPI inflation.

Notably, the dollar index relative to other major currencies strongly affects global monetary inflation.

So in order to have a view on price within any intermediate term timeframe (eg the people calling for new ATH prior to the next halving), it’s important to have a view on global monetary inflation and liquidity, because that is primarily where new external demand comes from.

Right now, bitcoin is a coiled spring on the supply side (fast money is out, coins have rotated towards strong illiquid hands), but the demand side (and thus the price) is largely a question of global liquidity.

#bitcoin is a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

It won’t change you or morph everyone into cultish zombies that share the same beliefs.

It’s a tool, and a damn good one, with growing use cases every year by creative folks. We can discuss those use cases and see them play out in the market.

spin+ gets guaranteed 1% back and that pays for itself in 2 months. free tier just gets 1 spin and those spins don't mean shit anymore.

Deep. Sigh. I may complain about Fold a lot but the fact of the matter is, the $100 yearly fee will pay for itself in 2 months. That gives me 10 months to complain about getting sats back on all of my bills. That seems like an overall win. The game here is to stack as much Bitcoin as possible and doing this helps a lot.

I’m really liking the distinct Nostr experience vs the Twitter experience. Occasionally I cross-post something on both, but my decision in recent weeks to treat them differently has been very rewarding.

Years ago, I used to post on certain forums. But as someone with a big Twitter following now, I am more self-conscious of what I post there these past few years. It’s like, I feel quite a responsibility before I send something out to 600k followers, rather than being able to treat it rather carefree like I would treat a forum in the old days. Of course, once in a while I get provoked by something or I share something random and funny for no reason, but not usually.

Since the community on Nostr is still smallish, it kind of rekindles that more carefree feeling of just posting, talking. And I post less about economics, which is my main Twitter silo.

And because I want open protocols like Nostr to succeed, I deliberately want to be here, posting. So it is a win-win; I try to add value but also it scratches an itch for me that hasn’t been scratched in a while.

Maybe if/when Nostr becomes large, it will recreate that sense of filtering that I have on Twitter. But I would still consider that a success, because it means Nostr succeeded and I at least got to experience a smaller social environment for another period of time.

1 BTC = 1 BTC

do not fuck around at these prices.

loading up on #Bitcoin