I use Bitcoin for saving my Future time 🍀☯️

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good morning, nostr only 🫡

The current state of the web is ABYSMAL

“We should change Bitcoin now in a contentious way to fix the security budget” is basically the same tinkering mentality that central bankers have.

It begins with an overconfident assumption that they know fees won’t be sufficient in the future and that a certain “fix” is going to generate more fees. But some “fixes” could even backfire and create less fees, or introduce bugs, or damage the incentive structure.

The Bitcoin fee market a couple decades out will primarily be a function of adoption or lack thereof. In a world of eight billion people, only a couple hundred million can do an on chain transaction per year, or a bit more with maximal batching. The number of people who could do a monthly transaction is 1/12th of that number. In order to be concerned that bitcoin fees will be too low to prevent censorship in the future, we have to start with the assumption that not many people use bitcoin decades out.

Fedwire has about 100x the gross volume that Bitcoin currently does, with a similar number of transactions. What will Bitcoin’s fee market be if volumes go up 5x or 10x, let alone 50x or 100x? Who wants to raise their hand with a confident model of what bitcoin volumes will be in 2040?

What will someone pay to send a ten million dollar equivalent on chain settlement internationally? $100 in fees per million dollar settlement transaction would be .01%. $300 to get it in a quicker block would be 0.03%. That type of environment can generate tens of billions of dollars of fees annually. The fees that people pay to ship millions of dollars of gold long distances, or to perform a real estate transaction worth millions of dollars, are extremely high. Even if bitcoin is a fraction of that, it would be high by today’s standards. And in a world of billions of people, if nobody wants to pay $100 to send a million dollar settlement bearer asset transaction, then that’s a world where not many people use bitcoin period.

In some months the “security budget” concern trends. In other months, the “fees will be so high that only rich people can transact on chain” concern trends. These are so wildly contradictory and the fact that both are common concerns shows how little we know about the long term future.

I don’t think the fee market can be fixed by gimmicks. Either the network is desirable to use in a couple decades or it’s not. If 3 or 4 decades into bitcoin’s life it can’t generate significant settlement volumes, and gets easily censored due to low fees, then it’s just not a very desirable network at that point for one reason or another.

Some soft forks like covenants can be thoughtfully considered for scaling and fee density, and it’s good for smart developers to always be thinking about low risk improvements to the network that the node network and miners might have a high consensus positive view toward over time. But trying to rush VC-backed softforks, and using security budget FUD to push them, is pretty disingenuous imo.

Anyway, good morning.

What’s the best way for an Egyptian to buy bitcoin?

I use a tent sauna, cost is orders of magnitude cheaper than a more permanent solution and just as effective.

I enjoy cooking steaks.

Sauna + early morning light to solidify circadian rhythm.

At the end of the day, power comes down to violence in the world. Our entire civilization is based on our relationship to it. I continue to believe that regulating our relationship to it, is best done through liberal democratic institutions. This nonsense that's becoming on trend in some corners of the internet, that we ought prefer absolute monarchies, is a deluded fairytale.

Hear me out! ☕🥓

Coffee and fresh bacon fat:

It's fucking disgusting.

⚡ A Game of Gib'n'Skip ⚡

19. offer:

Zap you & your accomplice 10.000丰 -or- 12.000丰 to the next nostriches?

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→ Est. 777171 ←

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- I offer incrementally increasing payouts. The sum increases until two people vote for grabbing the sats.

- Code for grabbing: gib

- Code for passing: skip

- There must be TWO 'gib' comments in a row from different people to split the pot between them 50/50

- Similar, there must be TWO 'skip' comments in a row to trigger a new offer for another payout.

- Comments count only in direct response to my question.

- The speed of the game is determine by real life events (family, gym, sleep...).

- Numbers go up only but not exponentially, I make it up as I go along.

If the game grows over my head and/or my nodes outbound liquidity, I maybe ask for donations to keep raising the stakes OR I hand the moderation over to someone more liquid than I am. If in the end my wallet is drained, a couple of sats crowdsourced from you Enjoyooors will be most welcome.

Example:

Zap you & your buddy 10 sats or 20 to the next nostriches?

| Skip

| Gib

| Skip

| Gib

| Skip

| Skip

--> skipped

Zap you & your buddy 20 sats or 50 to the next nostriches?

| Skip

| Gib

| Gib

--> 10 sats to each of the greedy basterds.