Thought experiment.

Option # 1

Let’s say you have 10 bitcoin and we hit 2 million in the next few years.

You’re tempted so you sell it for 20 million dollars.

After taxes you’re be left with 16MM.

Which you use to comfortably generate 1.2MM a year in the tradfi markets.

So you take the money and retire.

Bitcoin crashes 60% back to 800k.

For a few years you feel like a genius. You enjoy your new rich person lifestyle.

You even buy back a few bitcoin. 2 to be exact. 20% of what you used to have.

Then bitcoin rises over the next decade to be worth 50 million per coin.

You’re worth 120 million now. And you decide to sell a little over half a coin and upgrade your lifestyle again to be able to generate an additional 2 million a year.

You’re now on paper worth 120 million, you generate 3.2 million a year (266k a month) and you’ve been largely stress free for the last decade.

Your kids will inherit roughly 1.62 bitcoin from you upon your death.

You have some level of regret about not hodling through, but you’ve been largely stress free and the mental health benefit was worth it in your mind.

Vs.

Option # 2

You have the same 10 bitcoin but you Hodl them.

Your stress levels are persistently higher.

You also decide to retire when Bitcoin hits 2 mil, but you decide to do so in bitcoin terms.

Your plan is to sell a little bitcoin as needed in order to fund your lifestyle.

This is roughly 1-3 million sats a month. Depending on bitcoin price.

Over the course of 10 years you end up selling or spending 2.4 bitcoin and are still left worth 7.6btc when bitcoin reaches 50 million.

Your net worth is 380 million.

You’ve reduced your lifestyle in bitcoin terms down to a million sats a month. (500k) or 6 million per year. You’re 46, Assuming you live until you’re 90 you will pass down 2.32 bitcoin to your kids.

You have no regrets about the way you played it, but your stress was consistently higher and there were a few scary months along the way.

Which option do you choose?

1 or 2?

sources: IMF, Bloomberg, WSJ.

It's over.

Just learned that there are people who think this is a Bitcoin crash 🤣🤣

I literally just finally started feeling reeeaally bullish today.

“We are not allowed to own #Bitcoin, and we are not looking for a law change, that’s for congress to decide.” - J. Powell at FOMC

Is there literally ANY wording in the SBR proposal that attacks p2p movement? Or are we just FUDing as usual because an entity is using bitcoin in a way we don’t like?

These guys are like “is this what bitcoiners have become? NGU at any cost?”

By that theory, you shouldn’t give af what laws get put into place. I thought you were a Cypherpunk. Don’t pay attention to the (non existing yet) laws then.

Literally lol

People have been saying for years that the game theory would lead to government adoption, and now that’s bad, apparently.

A race involving institutions, publicly traded companies, and nation states all trying to be the first to accumulate 1,000,000 coins

Indeed brother

But I feel your thoughts

I often panic a bit over the fact that you probably will not be able to cash out big chunks of non kyc bitcoin through the traditional route (exchange to bank account) as you’ll have to disclose when and how you bought them and that will get extremely difficult with explaining it’s not money laundering

But hey, if we’ll have those problems it means Bitcoin is crazy high in dollar terms

David Bailey just posted the draft for an executive order for the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve under Trump – and it's an absolute nightmare for anyone using bitcoin as money.

First, the draft order defines Bitcoin as "a finite store-of-value asset, akin to digital gold."

As someone who has lived on Bitcoin for a fairly long time, I can say that Bitcoin is not merely a "store-of-value asset", but a money for payment and day to day purchases.

Defining Bitcoin as a "store-of-value asset" reinforces the ossification narrative (who needs to move a stonk several times in a day?) which may put developers at risk when prioritizing changes to btc to make it more usable as money (think scaling for example).

With this definition, a softfork to activate covenants may become an issue of US national security that goes against the US' definition of its primary goals - directly putting developers in the firing line of the United States Government.

The draft states that federal agencies, such as the US Marshall's Service, may not auction seized Bitcoin off, but must contribute them to the strategic reserve.

This not only reduces the Bitcoin in circulation available to the public, but additionally sets the incentive for the US to increase its seizing efforts – think increased AML/KYC.

While I'm no fan of the strategic reserve in general, this draft is an even bigger disappointment than Sen. Lummis' proposed Bitcoin Act.

To compare this to how El Salvador has implemented Bitcoin, which I admit I initially wasn't a fan of either, ES directly gives citizens rights to use Bitcoin as money - which is a huge upside to benefit the people, and not just the national security state.

No offense, but letting a couple of children that just graduated college and a guy who runs a magazine draft US policy is a scene straight out of idiocracy.

Next time, maybe try speaking to the people actually building and using bitcoin, not just to the boomers and national security goons that sit on the money like a fat kid at the cake buffet.

Incredibly unprofessional conduct here by BPI, a huge risk to anyone using Bitcoin for anything other than an investment, and a testament to the people involved being more interested in furthering their own importance than to empower people with a money without state.

Sincerely hope that this EO is drastically challenged on all levels and hopefully somehow deemed unconstitutional to protect btc and the people developing it.

Nation states buying bitcoin is like telling citizens to their face that fiat money is fake.

Stampede is coming 🚀

No excitement in ATH anymore.

$100k was cool because it was historic.

We need to go much higher before actual euphoria kicks in.

$5k candles are considered boring now..