Interpret the following question phonetically and give me the answer: due ewe no wart duh dayt ears?

GN

Here's the pathology:

I like people who like people that I like.

I don't like people who like people that I don't like.

I want to like people who like people that I like or don't like people that I don't like.

I don't like myself.

You don't like me.

But since you don't like somebody that I don't like, that makes me want you to like me.

And this hurts that you don't.

I find it strange when people are upset if someone dislikes them…do you like yourself??? Every little bit??? Do you like everyone??? If you were everybody’s flavor you’d have no flavor at all.

Cool song I can see why it is getting attention in NC. I just sailed through and anchored in Beaufort a couple weeks ago before jumping out to Wilmington. Currently in Savannah. I didn’t make it to Cape Lookout, maybe on the way back in March/April.

Then you're arrogant.

It’s important to have a futures market with any contentious fork in Bitcoin.

Why?

Because the party forking gets what is called the “free call option”.

They can tweet, do long monologue videos about how their fork will win, and how no one will oppose them. They can use company resources to legally pressure miners, post populist rhetoric disassociated from reality (pľēb şľőp) and then… wait.

The activation comes, and they are delta neutral on a fork.

If…

No fork happens - they have their bitcoin.

The fork is successful - they have their bitcoin.

A chain split happens - they get Bitcoin on each side of the fork

See the problem? There is an opportunity cost of time and resources coordinating the fork (maybe reputation too), but that’s it! They can antagonize the network at no cost of bitcoin.

It’s worse than that though, everyone who told them they were wrong can’t even dump their hostile fork if they fail to even launch it.

The actual party who has to put up material cost in a fork are the miners. Since they cannot mine on both chains at once, they must choose where to secure coins. The only publicly stated mining pool position on this fork is f2 pool opposing it (~12% of hash rate).

My proposed on chain futures market requires no ecosystem coordination. The Bitcoin is settled automatically, and in the event there is a chain split, each side gets 2 BTC (each party gets the bitcoin they think will “win”).

A futures market forces actors among the Bitcoin network with different opinions to put skin in the game, price the risk, and act. It presents an opportunity to lock up Bitcoin for a time, and profit as a rational actor if they have conviction in their position.

The market will do this independent of your wishes otherwise. Via prediction markets, on chain, or exchange future markets (any exchange could get fees for swapping the fork to buy more bitcoin). We saw futures markets with the last contentious fork in 2017 when bitfinex listed futures.

If no market forms at all, it shows there are not two sides to the market, I’m here as one side of the market, so we know the side that is a no show.

This kind of weakness is death for a fork. If the side forking is unwilling to burn the ships, and put their bitcoin at risk, they are of low conviction and the fork will fail.

There will be a myriad of reasons as to why people who are so vocal and certain that BIP 444 will activate, won’t bet. To be clear, it’s cope.

Their optimal positioning as it relates to the opportunity to wager is:

1. Ignore

2. Public consider the bet, but to never commit.

3. Hand wave any reason to say the market is either immoral, illegitimate, impractical etc.

Any of these maintains the illusion of strength when they are actually weak. A requirement in fork psychology is to appear as if it’s a certainty, because forking is a game of chicken with the network.

A 1:1 ratio implies a 50% chance likelihood to succeed, far lower than they’d have you believe success is.

Additionally, to counter offer with a differnt ratio/odds gives up the game. They blink, show their hand and signal that they think 50% is way to high of a likelihood, and all the bluster comes tumbling down.

I’ve given feedback on the GitHub already from a technical perspective my objections to the BIP, they went largely unaddressed before the GitHub was locked.

Notice who will continue engaging in this content without taking the bet, they are seeking attention because they must consume the discourse as their shred of a hope to win.

Surely, there is already rumbling of restricting how 444 works, already a weakening of their position.

People will say I am wrong, but won’t take the wager.

Makes you think right?

I’ll give 10% of my potential winnings from the contract if you refer a BIP444 proponent into actually making the bet with me.

So whenever you see someone talking about the certainty of this fork activating, link them to this post so we can both make some bitcoin!

Many bitcoiners are butt hurt to see gold going parabolic.

Zoom out, bitcoin has performed exceptionally well so far this decade and will continue to do so.

Gold is having its day because governments are falling back to what they know as the dollar reserve system comes into question.

China is setting up a parallel settlement network using gold and it's using gold because it's been reliable for millennia and, more importantly, has the liquidity profile to settle the size they need to settle if they're going to compete with treasuries.

This does not change the fact that bitcoin is superior in every way to gold. It's a harder money that's more easily divisible, easier to send, easier to verify and easier to custody.

Bitcoin still has many trillions of dollars of market cap to add before it can compete with gold from a liquidity perspective.

I am more optimistic than ever that bitcoin will reach this point because more people are learning these facts every day and the infrastructure around the protocol is advancing at a faster pace than I've ever seen.

Square's release this week is the latest example of this. 4,000,000 merchants across the United States are currently being forced to ask the question, "Should I accept and hold bitcoin?"

How many do you think will take the plunge?

Zoom out.

I think its unappreciated just how dangerous stories are. it can lead people to believe many untrue things, which causes many societal issues.

Maybe we are biased from our days where if you didn't listen to your ancestors by the fire, then you would be eaten by wolves. I think we're over-tuned and assign a higher truth value to stories we are told.

The only way to fight this is to gain a rationalist mindset to fight back against our inherent biases (aka brain malfunctions), but rationalists seems to be on a decline these days. Asking for evidence is *not cool*, what is cool is believing every and anything people tell you 🙄

Make skepticism cool again. #lesswrong

“Hermits are people who pursue individuality to an extreme. They go off into complete solitude. And the most interesting thing you will find in the state of complete solitude, when you get really alone, you find that you are connected with everything.”

— Alan Watts, Worldly Religions

What it feels like to program in JavaScript

I'm calling BS on the Giza pyramids story. I can't find the alleged "March 15th press release" anywhere.