Avatar
YODL
d28413712171c33e117d4bd0930ac05b2c51b30eb3021ef8d4f1233f02c90a2b
YODL-AY-HEE-HOO

Didn’t reels kill vine? I remember all the top accounts started to shill reels around the same time

Reading about elliptic curves is giving me a tiny jub-jub

No, some apps let you view “trending” and such. Anyway, you’ll figure it out, and I’m not the best person to go much deeper

Don’t think so. Would be impossible to get an exact number since there’s no central server anyway, and not aware of any sort of estimators out there

Much smaller user base than bird ap, less algorithm-driven scrolling (possibly) which could mean fewer percentage people see the note at all. Just some guesses

Not seeing how it could be fundamentally different 🤷‍♂️

Replying to Avatar arkinox

So there's this card game called Spot It. There are 55 cards each with 8 symbols on it. Typically the game is played where a target card is flipped up and players try to match the next card from their hand to the target card.

The interesting thing about Spot It is that every card shares exactly 1 matching symbol with every other card in the deck. This is due to a combinatronic trick.

The number of cards and symbols C are calculated like so:

C = q² + q + 1

And the number of symbols per card S is

S = q + 1

So, for any value of q you can figure out a set of symbols and cards that operate the same as Spot It.

Now, the thing that caught my attention while playing Spot It is how when I commit to playing a card, it completely changes the strategy everyone else must use, because now they must match their card to my card rather than the target card. Each card that is played totally resets the symbol matching process.

There are no turns. When someone plays a card, it creates a checkpoint in time that alters the game state and completely changes each player's strategy.

I have been interested in how to establish a chronology of events in a trustless way without a blockchain. I am curious if this symbol matching mechanism could be abtracted to a cryptographic operation where each commitment by a party changes the requirements for the next commitment. If the commitment is linked to an event or action, it could establish a definitive ordering of events even when no trusted clock is available.

There may be better ways to do this already, such as collaborative hash chains, but I still think the idea is worth exploring.

Another interesting aspect of this combinatronic trick is that you can visualize the set of cards and symbols with lines and points respectively. You can draw the points and connect them with lines such that each point has exactly S lines and any two lines may only share 1 point. It gets really difficult after q=2 but I did it for q=3 😅

Isn’t that sort of what mining below difficulty on top of latest block is? I must must be missing something.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

GM.

I'm bullish on bitcoin, and I think a lot of people overthink it.

One of my favorite metrics is the market value vs realized value ratio. The realized value is basically just the on-chain cost basis. The value of UTXOs at the dollar price during which they last moved between wallets, which often means the time people pulled them from exchanges or deposited them to exchanges.

A relatively small amount of marginal buying can push up the market value by a lot. Like how if you buy one house on a street, it can boost the estimated price of all houses on that street even though only one of them traded hands. But when market value becomes stretched relative to cost basis, it means that part of the market value is kind of illusory. We don't *really* know what houses on that street are worth if only one of them traded hands recently and thus liquidity was low. Over time, as more houses on that street trade hands and we have more price points, the estimated value of the street becomes more real. The same thing for bitcoin; as more bitcoin trades hands at certain levels, it starts to make that level "real" compared to how real we should consider it when it just touches a certain level for a little while with limited volume.

Right now, bitcoin is at an all-time high in its realized price, i.e. cost basis.

Back when bitcoin was poking over $60k in April 2021, the cost basis for the network was only about $350 billion. Now, at the same market price, the cost basis approaches $650 billion, or more than twice as high. The marginal bitcoin has traded hands and moved between wallets at much higher prices than years ago, even though the market price is about the same. In other words, these levels have been truly liquid and been consummated by the market more than they were back in 2021, and thus the price is more robust at this level than back then.

The launch of the spot ETFs pulled forward some excitement this year, and so we've been in this big consolidation since March. But even in that time period from March to the present, the on-chain cost basis increased from like $520 billion to $640 billion, and so price discovery and progress is being made despite the ongoing price chop.

As the network builds a bigger and more solid base like it has been doing, it can set the stage for the next major breakout. The network looks healthy to me.

Most bullish stat I've seen

Replying to Avatar nym

Feel like I “like” all the posts of yours I see

Inspired to try this tomorrow. Will report back, provided it's not a disaster outcome