🧵 Human Behavior as a Geopolitical Canary
aka “Pizza = Precursor to War?”
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1. 🍕 U.S. Pizza Orders & Baghdad Airstrikes (2020)
Hours before the U.S. confirmed the drone strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, online observers noted:
• Surge in late-night delivery orders to the Pentagon and Langley
• Flight radar anomalies (Gulfstream jets leaving Iraq)
• Sudden shutdown of embassy web services in the region
People watching thought: “Uh-oh.”
By morning: Boom. Strike confirmed. World changed.
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2. 🛬 Russian Jet Movements Before Crimea Invasion (2014)
Plane spotters noticed unusual IL-76 troop carrier flights from Russia to areas near Crimea before troops ever crossed the border.
Combined with:
• Weird “military exercises” declared by Moscow
• State media pushing sudden narratives about “ethnic Russians in danger”
OSINT Twitter had the invasion nailed 48 hours before CNN.
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3. 🧳 China Lockdown – Before COVID Was Announced (Dec 2019)
Sharp-eyed observers on Weibo and flight trackers noticed:
• Massive cancellation of domestic flights out of Wuhan
• Local hospital parking lots full for days, based on Google Earth time-lapse
It screamed outbreak, but no one in the West took it seriously until weeks later. The data was all there.
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4. 🚛 Turkey’s Invasion of Syria (2019)
Before Turkey formally announced its ground incursion:
• Locals noticed military convoys passing small border towns at night
• Fuel and bread prices jumped 2x in specific Turkish provinces
• Journalists quietly recalled from the area
The war was “visible” to anyone watching logistics and locals.
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5. 🛫 Taliban’s Advance on Kabul (2021)
As U.S. withdrawal neared, people started tracking:
• Massive spikes in private charter flights out of Kabul
• Embassy personnel on flights days before official evac notice
• UN and NGO staff quietly going dark on social media
The fall of Kabul felt “sudden” to the media, but not to anyone watching airport activity.
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Why This Matters
In an era of:
• Open-source data
• Real-time tracking
• Human behavior breadcrumbs
…you can sense the tremors before the quake.
Not with certainty. But often with enough signal to not be surprised.
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If you want to geek out further, some resources to follow:
• @sentdefender on X
• FlightRadar24
• MarineTraffic
• Liveuamap
• Telegram channels in conflict zones
• And yes… even Google Maps “Popular Times”
Courtesy of ChatGPT 4o 💻🤖
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Source: NYTimes.
