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Short abundance. Long scarcity.

Isn’t the obvious leak here that the exchanges are cooperating with authorities and telling them time, amount and user details of every monero deposit/ withdrawal?

If the sender or receiver of a transaction shared details of the transaction with others, is not a failure of the protocol.

Savings aren’t idle though.

If you deposit 1000 euros to a savings account paying 1% interest, the bank doesn’t just put your money out the way and generously give you 1% extra a year.

No, they take your money and invest it in something else, with the goal of making 10+%, pocket the majority of it and throw you a small kickback for letting them use your money to make themselves richer.

The money is hard at work. It’s just the saver that isn’t seeing much benefit from this.

Perhaps miners are moving away from bcash, given it’s about to be worth a lot less to mine, leaving it with a far lower hash rate than its current difficulty would suggest.

How do you protect against your yubi key breaking or getting lost. It is a single point of failure and has always worried me about using gpg in this way.

It signals to the listener that “the point” is about to be reached, so they should start paying attention now.

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Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

I spoke at a big bitcoin-adjacent company this week and one of the best questions was from someone who asked what the downsides of bitcoin adoption might be.

I always do appreciate these steelman questions, the skeptical questions, the ones where we challenge ourselves. Only when we can answer those types of questions do we understand the concept that we are promoting.

So the classic example is that in modern economic literature, "deflation is bad". This, however, is only the case in a highly indebted system. Normally, deflation is good. Money appreciates, technology improves, and goods and services get cheaper over time as they should. Price of Tomorrow covers this well. My book touches on this too, etc. The "deflation is bad" meme is still alive in modern economic discourse and thus is worth countering, but I think in the bitcoin spectrum of communities, people get that deflation is fine and good.

My answer to the question was in two parts.

The first part was technological determinism. In other words, if we were to re-run humanity multiple times, there are certain rare accidents that might not replicate, and other commonalities that probably would. Much like steam engines, internal combustion engines, electricity, and nuclear power, I think a decentralized network of money is something we would eventually come across. In our case, Bitcoin came into existence as soon as the bandwidth and encryption tech allowed it to. In other universes or simulations it might look a bit different (e.g. might not be 21 million or ten minute block times exactly), but I think decentralized real-time settlement would become apparent as readily as electricity does, for any civilization that reaches this point. So ethics aside, it just is what it is. It exists, and thus we must deal with it.

The second part was that in my view, transparency and individual empowerment is rarely a bad thing. Half of the world is autocratic. And half of the world (not quite the same half) deals with massive structural inflation. A decentralized spreadsheet that allows individuals to store and send value can't possibly be a bad thing, unless humanity itself is totally corrupted. I then went into more detail with examples about historical war financing, and all sorts of tangible stuff. In other words, a whole chapter full of stuff. I've addressed this in some articles to.

In your view, if you had to steelman the argument as best as you could, what are the scenarios where bitcoin is *BAD* for humanity rather than good for it, on net?

I think it is naĂŻve to think that the people of the world will control their bitcoin.

Currently it requires a high degree of technical competence to store and protect your funds. The problem with being your own bank is that you have to be a bank. The $5 wrench attack is very real, and robbery becomes much simpler if everyone self custodies.

It is logical to conclude that the majority will let other store and protect their bitcoin. And we are back with banks and governments that can take what they like from you.

So what’s bad about a bitcoin future? It might look exactly like the present.