https://github.com/bitcoin/bips
原来github就有标明，而且其中很受社区追捧的BIP119就是soft fork，确实是我太妄言了。不过
1. soft fork也很难推出去，绝大部分都挂了
2. 社区有不认同这个soft fork还是可能会造成hard fork的，BIP119还挺多争议性的；不过这个在你看来估计就是把BTC变得更像其他链
我个人的话，当然是希望不造成分裂的情况下实现BIP119，而且越快越好
哦，眼瞎看错bsv的部分，不好意思。那你应该提议其他支持BIP的BTC Maxi别玩这条链。我个人更加接近观望 和 长期投资
😂我不知道怎么说，不只是共识算法, 当然我不是绝对的。 不过有些内容基本没啥争议
“In blockchain, a fork is defined variously as:
"what happens when a blockchain diverges into two potential paths forward"
"a change in protocol", or
a situation that "occurs when two or more blocks have the same block height"[1]: glossary [a]
Forks are related to the fact that different parties need to use common rules to maintain the history of the blockchain.”
bsv, bch这些链全是分裂共识的hard fork （都一条独立的链了，不明白你hard fork的定义），当然ETH是不是辣鸡也不影响我上述的言论
”这就是比特币社区的答案。“
我不是想杠你，不过至少在我们讨论的环境，你看看 #[3]
回复你那个post的点赞和转发量....
想要继续升级开发者想要的内容，taproot这种软分叉就能搞定的基本不会有了
https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/115257/is-every-bip-actually-a-small-fork
现代人太多挣扎了，自己都没明白应该怎么生活。 不生育 对这个社会整体的发展可能也很有意义。 保持经济增长 和 人口基数 这些可能没那么必要
话说，DLC可不是“技术都有了，还没有人做出产品而已。” 为了保障我没有落伍，搜了一下，还是和以前一样。 就是“mainnet开关channel成功了”。（我理解里，只能算是他们只测试了 “续约” 这个级别的功能）“Note that the code is very unstable and we would like to emphasize that using it with mainnet coins is very likely to lead to the loss of the funds.”
这种阶段我会理解成还在proof of concept阶段。离产品还有 “把所有功能都做出来---》测试”。3-5年内能有完成度高的产品都算快了(根据他们的文章和github更新进度 还有 项目的开放程度，我已经尽量往更短时间推测了)。
这个解决不了KYC和审查的问题啊，你不上牌的话很快就被IRS封了。
“不然你问我 “比特币不需要 mass adoption 吗”，是没有意义的。因为我不管回答是或否，都推导不出 rollup 这种范式是有意义的，是所有人必须接受的。为啥要用 rollup？”
还是回应一下这里，你的意思似乎是（不是的话我智障）：我的narrative偏向“roll up是mass adaption必须的”这个方向。如果让你产生了这种误解是我的问题。
所以我可以默认 你也希望 “BTC生态 在mass adaption里是垄断性的地位吧”。我问这么多就是想知道BTC以后发展的可能性如何，还要多久。 因为我的知识范围确实很低，所以可能有不少没听过的方案。
我觉得先做了，结果随缘吧。 现代社会没文革恐怖，不过也有这样对应的信任黑森林问题
"智能合约就是计算结果全节点每个节点都要算一遍，是极其巨大的能源浪费。" 这个已经不是这样了啊，所以我才有"mass adaption用现在的侧链之类的方式根本做不到“的看法啊
#[0]
这么重的共识计算成本只是为了搞个小图片？ 虽然我也很讨厌小图片，不过现在似乎Ordial更离谱吧，图片都上链了。社区再不联合起来 就要分叉了
”永远要记住比特币这一个唯一的使命。不要玷污它“ 不知道怎么说，不过你想保持这个使命的吧，你大概要反对大部分的BIPs（没有说好还是不好） 这些BIP大部分都是为了扩张BTC的可编程能力，从而扩展侧链而诞生的。
明白，“我不知道走向 mass adoption 需要怎么做，如果你知道，那么你比我强。我只认为闪电网络比 rollup 强，如果闪电网络都不行，使用 rollup 为什么就行了？ ” 这是就是我想知道的分歧点，谢谢。
rollup就不谈了，已经陷入了是否 “对主链牺牲太多”的循环
回应一下DLC的问题容量很差 + 透明度低/可验证度低。这个也不只是我说的啊。 不过我确实相当期待DLC，我也说过很多遍这是BTC生态上最快可以体验smart contract的可能性了，其他方式连影都没有。
#[4]
It's overall a very optimistic report, most of it seems feasible, but the timeline could easily postponed by 5~10 years imo. Some points I find enlightening in this it:
- "Reusable Rockets Deliver Satellite Power To Traditional Smartphones"
satellite communication Price per minute/text is comparable to terrestrial celluar
- "Cryptocurrency Mining Can Support Larger Solar-Battery Installations"
which is already true. Other sustainable methods like utilizing volcano, or the previously disposed natural gas(also stated in the Bitcoin session of the report).
-"AI Training Costs Continue To Plummet"
They predicted the cost to train GPT-3 level performance will plumet from the current $450,000 to $30 in 2030, without providing any detail analysis. Feels more like a easy logistic regression fit to the current data. My take is may be it's possible if there's hardware innovation + reusing most of the models we have.
-"Based On The Introduction Of Property Rights, Digital Assets Should Accrue Significant Value"
It measure this by Property Rights vs. GDP per Capita, meaning digital property ownership will increase significantly. They forecast NFT transaction will grow from $22 billion to $120 billion by 2027. If they meant NFT, as NFT for the digital ownership of digital commercial products, not only art, then it's very likely.
-"Digital Wallets Create Closed-Loop Ecosystems For Consumers and Merchants"
Obviously, but it's better to have multiple digital wallets to compete for different sectors of customers and merchants.
-"Closed-Loop Transactions Could Account For More Than 50% Of Digital Wallet Payments By 2030" It's mainly about the closed transaction ecosystem in China. In too many ways this is not a good idea.
-"Smart Contract Networks Could Facilitate $450 Billion In Annual Fees By 2030"
If the scale up process is successfully in next 5 years, then this ~40x increase is totally feasible. They also predict the tokenized assets will be around 5% of total financial assets, but I think that may take much longer.
-"Gene Editing Is Close To Commercialization" "RNA-Based Therapeutics Are Gaining Traction" "Targeted Protein Degraders (TPD) Could Treat Many Diseases"
Based + doable + much needed
-"The Molecular Cancer Testing Market Segments By “Tumor Burden”", " Diagnostics + Therapeutics Should Reduce Cancer Mortality"
Sounds good, need more actual implementations
-EV and Autonomous Driving tech seems over optimistic
#Future #Prediction #AI #Crypto #BTC #Robotics #Finance #Medical #Health
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1630394434847227909
Starlink
"Starlink v2 mini deployed in orbit"
Not sure if this version will enable direct smartphone satellite internet. But the overall upgrades are still very nice.
-better phase array antennas and band for about 4x more capacity per satellite
-new argon Hall thrusters for on orbit maneuvering, about 2.4x thrust to the previous generation (170mN thrust)
Hope the full v2 experience will be arriving soon. Direct smartphone connection is a very important way of expanding the suburban area for better living quality. Infrastructures are required to build a 30~40 minutes range suburb. And among all, internet is the hardest one. Sustainable electricity and water are not that difficult with a community size over 200 houses. (closer to natural water source is preferrable) So the only thing left is internet. For a more populated area, solutions like cellular towers that's connected to the satellite instead of the fiber are viable. But suburb areas are mainly uncovered area, so no connection during commute or field work is still a huge deal. Starlink v2 seems to be the key toward this future.
"Starlink v2 迷你版已经在轨道上部署"
不确定这个版本是否支持手机直接连接卫星互联网，但总体升级仍然非常出色。
-更好的相位阵列天线和带宽，每颗卫星的容量增加了约4倍
-新的氩气霍尔推进器可用于轨道机动(低轨道需要定期推动，不然会掉下去)，相对于上一代推进器的推力增加了约2.4倍（推力为170mN）
希望完整的v2体验能够很快到来。我认为手机直连卫星，是扩大郊区生活圈 和 提高生活质量的一个重要因素。建立一个30~40分钟范围的郊区生活圈需要各种基础设施，而其中最难的是互联网。对于拥有超过200户的社区来说，可持续的电力和水的问题并不难解决。（靠近自然水源更好）所以剩下的唯一问题就是互联网。对于人口更多的地区，像将手机基站连接到卫星而不是光纤的解决方案是可行的。但郊区面积相当大，在没有网络覆盖的范围通勤 和 做什么其他维修工作是不可行的，通常会用更专门的卫星通讯设备。Starlink v2似乎是通向这个未来的关键。
#spaceX #space #satellite #satelliteInternet #InternetCoverage #Connectivity #Smartphone #suburbanization #