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Tortoise
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Thanks for sharing. It is always interesting to look at other people's bookshelves. A glimpse into what people find valuable. I recently read The Wall Speaks, which I found through your account. Life changing and it has only been a little over a week since I started reading it. Hard pill to swallow, if I'm being honest. I appreciate you sharing what you find valuable.

Why not? It is looking like an incredible time to buy, unless something has broken significantly that we are unaware of.

Wowsa! The day after posting we 99.9% won't break below $80k, we break below $80k 😂. Well, I didn't say it was impossible. Let's take a deeper look.

Looking at my numbers if the trend line is broken, without a macro event that shifts it down on the Y axis, then the price can VERY briefly go down another ~1 - 2%~ typically outside of exchange caused glitches like what happened in 2015. No model is perfect and outliers can happen when things get unexpectedly volatile.

So my trend line minimum expected price today of $80,230.52 has been broken. We've hit more than 1% below that making this one of the most significant deviations from the overall trend since the trend itself shifted in 2021 due to the China Mining ban.

Since it broke below $80k does this mean the trend is shifting down again? IMO unlikely. I don't think it will or is, the hashrate has never been higher and the difficulty adjustment just had one of the highest increases of nearly 7%. We're almost 10% into the next difficulty adjustment epoch and it's looking like a nearly 8% difficulty increase is on the horizon. Everything is pointing to upward momentum for Bitcoin but the market is tugging HARD to get it to go down.

IMO this is likely a last ditch panic sell-off with the overall market being down so much, making this a hell of a buying opportunity before we see a massive 50%+ upswing sometime before May and kickstart this years bull bubble that may touch $1M a coin before returning to the trend a year later at around $250K. But nobody really knows for sure, there's too many variables to account for in any model.

Keeping my eye on things. 🕵️‍♂️

Personally not worried at all, just curious and fascinated. I've been at this a long time.

Just chill and breath, don't emotionally panic sell which you historically have always come to regret. This is potentially the biggest stacking opportunity of your life going forward. Stay calm, stay focused, things will be alright even if it's rocky in the short term.

☮️♥️₿

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Appreciate your update. Do you think a global trade war is a significant enough macro event to cause a trend shift if it gets sufficiently heated up? I like the logic in your model and I am personally adding to my stack below $80k.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to make daily or monthly purchases in BTC if you live in the US. Get a Citi 2% cash back card, buy your coffee and ammo on credit, pay off your credit card each month with a Fold card (get 0.5% in sats rewards), humbly save any remaining fiat you have left over in BTC. Larger purchases, that take multiple months to save for, should be saved in BTC and exchanged for fiat when it comes time to make the purchase. Fold is great for converting BTC to fiat for spending.

I never felt like I could speak freely on other social media apps. I always was worried about being tracked or recorded. Even following people or liking posts worried me. With Nostr I don't feel that. I'm excited to be able to more fully communicate and share ideas with people, and not just be a silent background lurker.