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Bitcoiner, Nuclear Engineer, Truth Maximalist, God not Religion, Earth not ESG Organizer of @npub1ynn5qnnc95qaqjejrtyazfdgutlxvme3djywe6s9wg76k68s37sqsl2qfd

Hike in the snow ❄️

GM nostr ☕ PV 💜

I realized yesterday that I am not really ready for Bitcoin to really take off yet. This dip feels good 🙂

Still Stacking Sats.

Replying to Avatar HODL

Thought experiment.

Option # 1

Let’s say you have 10 bitcoin and we hit 2 million in the next few years.

You’re tempted so you sell it for 20 million dollars.

After taxes you’re be left with 16MM.

Which you use to comfortably generate 1.2MM a year in the tradfi markets.

So you take the money and retire.

Bitcoin crashes 60% back to 800k.

For a few years you feel like a genius. You enjoy your new rich person lifestyle.

You even buy back a few bitcoin. 2 to be exact. 20% of what you used to have.

Then bitcoin rises over the next decade to be worth 50 million per coin.

You’re worth 120 million now. And you decide to sell a little over half a coin and upgrade your lifestyle again to be able to generate an additional 2 million a year.

You’re now on paper worth 120 million, you generate 3.2 million a year (266k a month) and you’ve been largely stress free for the last decade.

Your kids will inherit roughly 1.62 bitcoin from you upon your death.

You have some level of regret about not hodling through, but you’ve been largely stress free and the mental health benefit was worth it in your mind.

Vs.

Option # 2

You have the same 10 bitcoin but you Hodl them.

Your stress levels are persistently higher.

You also decide to retire when Bitcoin hits 2 mil, but you decide to do so in bitcoin terms.

Your plan is to sell a little bitcoin as needed in order to fund your lifestyle.

This is roughly 1-3 million sats a month. Depending on bitcoin price.

Over the course of 10 years you end up selling or spending 2.4 bitcoin and are still left worth 7.6btc when bitcoin reaches 50 million.

Your net worth is 380 million.

You’ve reduced your lifestyle in bitcoin terms down to a million sats a month. (500k) or 6 million per year. You’re 46, Assuming you live until you’re 90 you will pass down 2.32 bitcoin to your kids.

You have no regrets about the way you played it, but your stress was consistently higher and there were a few scary months along the way.

Which option do you choose?

1 or 2?

2. The stress keeps you pushing to be the change you want to see in the world.

Did you guys know that incandescent light bulbs are effectively banned in the US?

Make lightbulbs great again!

https://abcnews.go.com/US/new-lightbulb-rules-ban-incandescent-lightbulbs-now-effect/story

GM nostr ☕ PV 💜

Gotcha, thanks for the response 👍

I am still formulating my opinion on the scarcity of Monero. I agree with your assessment of the tail emissions.

My issue with the supply, and potential future of Monero as money on the global stage is that it is no where near decentralized enough to withstand the types of attacks that Bitcoin has survived. Bitcoin has been under attack essentially constantly for almost 10 years and no one can change it. I am skeptical that Monero could survive in its current form with that kind of pressure.

It's hard forks have had consensus, but again it hasn't had to survive a malicious or contentious hard or soft fork attempt.

It's supposed to represent a non-monetary use case. And yes, ordinals is one use of blockspace, but there are other things that people are willing to pay to put in the Bitcoin Blockchain too.

Honest question, I'm doing a mini deep dive on Monero vs Bitcoin so I'm genuinely curious.

What about Monero makes you think it is a good store of value over the long term? Also what market places are you using to "buy things you want" in Monero?

Thanks!

Where do you get the global M2 data?

I've been wanting to track global M2 for a while now but I don't know where to get it other than adding up all the major economies individually.

Is that essentially what you have to do? Or is there a source that aggregates it for you?

Thanks, great read as always! 🤙