I'm hosting a bunch of people from the US this week in Barcelona, and three of them didn't ask me before booking their hotel. As a result, they're staying right in the middle of the Barrio Chino. And as a consequence of that, I've already let them know that anything that happens to them and their property is on them, and that pick ups and returns at night to where they're staying are on them too.
And by "correct" I obviously mean incorrect BUT cooler. Therehence my postening of it onto the Nostr.
Reposting because of the correct word "halvening".
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Oh damn, I just noticed it for the first time. Why would they bury it in there?
Well yes, you are right to introduce that nuance about the miners. I was assuming they pretty much convert all BTC they mine to fiat. Are they actually keeping BTC in their treasury/reserves?
I also agree about demand in the mid term, and even more about the long term. That's why my comment was about the short term.
Talking about one to two years - we still have the Jan 1, 2025 date to mark on our calendars. That's when based on the new rules from the Bank for International Settlements central banks will be legally allowed to stack BTC (and likely ETH) up to a 2% of their reserves. We all know some states have already started to stack on the low, but when the central banks can do it in the open, now THAT will be wild.
I'm so glad I got some stock during the IPO.
One caveat to the last paragraph is what I had been arguing for the past couple of years about the Fed - which is that I can hardly see them letting Trump just win again.
That has been my fundamental thesis for interest rates going down in 2024, so boomers see their stocks go up again and vote harder for Biden.
But it's almost May already, so it's too late for that. On the contrary, if they touched rates now, the effects would only kick in after Trump is back in the Whitehouse to reap the profits of a "recovery" (rather just kicking the can a bit further, which is the base of the whole boomer fiat economy).
So my conclusion is the opposite now. The Fed is discounting a Trump victory and not only will not move rates now, but probably will do its worst when Trump is back in to keep crushing the people so he can't benefit from the mirage of lower rates.
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Halvening and short term price -
Supposedly the effect is a reduction of supply, and the subsequent increase of price. The sellers are the miners, but who are the buyers?
So, first condition: demand is what drives price increase, not offer. Is it there?
Enter ETFs, Ordinals and Runes and associated VC scammers and "Bitcoin OG" grifters, retail (completely absent this cycle so far...)
I'm not saying there is or isn't demand. Just putting it out there.
Then, assuming demand is there, price doesn't automatically double to catch up. So, the amount of BTC miners have to sell to cover operation costs and satisfy shareholder profits actually increases. Which is detrimental to price increases. Which means that an even larger demand is required to move the price up.
Is my logic wrong? Again, rather than asserting anything, I'm just putting this out there, see if anybody has arguments that contradict my reasoning.
With the Fed insisting inflation is not under control and large asset managers pivoting even more to bonds, and the summer right here, I think it doesn't bode well for risk-on assets, let alone Bitcoin in terms of demand. Not in the short term.
Which I as said yesterday, I very much welcome because I have unshakable long term conviction and a cooldown of BTC's price right now would allow
me to keep buying and stacking like the psycho I am.
It's ok, we are all grownups here. I'm confident we all can tolerate language like "rare sats", occasionally.
Yes, however remember that the last picture is the direct and completely conscious choice of the people in the first picture.
So the media say that large asset managers, especially pension funds, are pulling out hundreds of billions from risk-on assets (mainly stocks) because inflation doesn't go down and thus bonds remain attractive...
This is interpreted as bearish for BTC because as we all know NGU is correlated with liquidity, and lack thereof was what really caused this last bear market.
I choose to be glad if "the analysts" are right because unlike them and unlike all these speculator bears, my conviction in BTC is both unshakable and very long term.
So as far as I'm concerned I wish the "bear" lasted a couple more years so I could stack harder and fatter.
They tried blocking Firefox + uBlock and failed. I haven't seen an ad for months, and hadn't seen one for years using Brave browser, before this last failed attempt by YT.
Your original note was better. Grab key words and have the app send the note to so and so channel. Do not force me to pick channels and topics because my interests are A LOT broader than the things I actively want to avoid.
I said it before - I believe in national self-determination as an overriding principle in politics. I thinl multinational states are inherently unjust. They are either doomed to fail, or bound to spend untold amounts of resources to become mononational, causing massive collective pain in the process in both cases.
Meaning, I support the right of the ethnic Russian regions in Ukraine to break away. Ideally to stay put and form new independent states, because I also think geographically and demographically large states are a failure too, but I would be ok with a voluntary unification with Russia.
So as far as that goes, Ukraine was unjustified in impeding their self-determination.
The issue though is that Putin's invasion has nothing to do with any of that. It's simply a negation in turn of the Ukrainian people's right to self-determination and to freely define the future of their polity, without a terrorist regime blackmailing them constantly.
For me, a just diplomatic solution would be Ukraine giving up those territories and Putin giving up his aspirations to be de facto dictator in Ukraine. That means if Ukrainians decide to join NATO and the EU, they do. It is unfair that Ukraine has to be the one taking the first step, but that's part of the realism of life.
As a matter of fact, being an illegitimate tyrant, Putin doesn't even have the right to complain or be unhappy about anything Ukraine does, the way a more just government would do or individual Russians do.
Or it means that they have higher arrest rates and harsher penalties than European countries.