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Quantum disappointment

Institutional capital flows through the path of least resistance, and OSL Group just opened the floodgates to China's sanctioned AI and semiconductor industries. TLDR; when you see the volume of USDGO(U.S. Treasuries) increasing while the U.S. stock market stagnates, it's the smoking gun that capital is fleeing the U.S.

In case you are not up to speed, OSL Group may as well be Ant Group, Alibaba, using Antalpha to custody XAUT (digital gold, settled in Hong Kong). Antalpha is the financial arm of Bitmain (hello Bitcoin).

OSL Group announced the launch of USDGO, a stablecoin backed by U.S. Treasuries and issued via Anchorage Digital Bank (a U.S. chartered bank).

These are not for retail HODLers, these are enterprise grade settlement layers for institutions.

Entities can hold USDGO ("stable", treasury backed) for settlement, then pivot into XAUT (gold backed) via Antalpha for long term reserves that are harder to seize or sanction than pure USD. It's a dual engine liquidity system that bypasses traditional SWIFT based restrictions.

USD and USD stablecoins can be frozen by the U.S. Treasury at the issuer level. If that capital is pivoted into XAUT and then redeemed for physical gold via Antalpha, the paper trail to a U.S.-controlled bank account is severed.

It turns the U.S. Treasury market into the very thing funding its own replacement. I call it, "How to use American tax payers as insurance for your global exit strategy."

While you might laugh at QUBIC for minting 200 trillion coins, Bitcoin has considerably more at 2.1 quadrillion Satoshis.

I'd rather stack QRL, which only needs a low billion market cap to break $1000 returns on $100. No quantum threats, no hard forks needed, institution ready. Just works.

Except all the third party banks between you and the real money. Except the mining pools that could collude on consensus any time. Except the ISP that can block access to the network, ban your node, ban your miner. Except that Bitcoin has been frozen and seized previously. Except KYC makes everything permissioned, then there's AML, which only works because everything is tracked and monitored by default.

Have fun with that.

This virtue is why you'll need alternative coins in a functioning society. Inherently, the collective value of these alternatives will always exceed the value of Bitcoin.

This is what Litecoin shows us. How do you accrue APR without a rate, or APY without a yield?

What's on your mind that nobody is talking about? #asknostr

Bitcoin shows us that fiat is winning. Its value is directly leveraged from fiat assets. Why do you think fiat is failing? Is that what you're being told?

I see this as a symptom of static equity becoming dynamic liquidity. When everything can be verified and sold, the rigidity of traditional finance collapses (like building a tower out of water).

The irony is that Bitcoin, being praised as the solution, exploits the same dollar system for value. Strategy is a direct example. They can only manage to leverage Bitcoin against the dollar, not replace it.

Let’s be real: If you were actually wealthy, strong, and intelligent, you’d be enjoying your life. Instead, you’re obsessing over the deli butcher. It's a personality disorder substituting for actual achievement. Your ego is so fragile, it requires the ignorant and unattractive for a sense of purpose. You've turned your own anxiety into a philosophy.

Truly powerful people are magnanimous. They aren't concerned about the weak and incapable; they're building rockets and solving genetic disorders, literally reshaping the human experience. You could never reach that level, so you retort to punching down.

Until you recognize this as weakness in yourself, the desire to project your own insecurities will consume you. Your own ignorance on full display.

And yet it remains a better store of value than Litecoin (the exact same miners). How could that be, when you're suggesting inflation drives value down?

When you own the liquidity, you own fiat too. Devaluing the dollar only devalues that extension of yourself. You could do a study on Litecoin and Dogecoin too; spoiler alert: the more valuable asset has continuously consistent inflation.

OSL Group’s acquisition of BANXA is currently targeting an effective date of January 2, after the "outside date" for completion was pushed back to January 29.

The acquisition creates a regulated bridge specifically designed to move capital between Western traditional finance and Eastern digital asset markets.

BANXA also picked up QUBIC over the past year (exposure to Africa).

It would be mighty convenient when this merger coincides with markets for Quranium(QRN).

Imagine the fee to live. Healthcare is already unaffordable for so many. Would there be an "Uncompensated Breather" fee, or should they go full extortion and charge up front.

Saving in Bitcoin requires running a miner at expense, and that still doesn't guarantee the security of your funds. Three pools have enough power to rewrite the entire blockchain. I'll say that again, three pools have enough hashrate to rewrite Bitcoin.

Is this a projection of the character you haven't built: calm confidence, being unmoved by external nonsense?

I'm not the one who wrote 6 paragraphs on gender stereotypes and relationships. I'm more interested in the moral courage required to post it.

That's a lot of words to say you've never dated before. To conditionalize women like the electrons of an atom; this is their behavior and how they respond, as if forgetting we're all individuals with personal hopes and aspirations.

Maybe the women you've met behave this way, which says a lot more about the culture you grew up in, or the algorithms you're exposed to. It could also speak on the types of women you choose to engage with, or simply the ones desperate enough to engage with you.

I hope you live long enough to escape the bubble you've made for yourself.

So what you're saying is that I shouldn't actually buy anything, unless I have the tools to profit off volatility like institutions. Tools which aren't being provided or made public.

NIST is deprecating ecliptic curve digital signatures by 2030, and disallowed in federal agencies by 2035. Institutions are being forced to adopt post quantum cryptography to comply with regulations. Even if Trump established a strategic reserve, Bitcoin's core code would need to adopt PQC, which is a whole dilemma in itself. Either case, it's much easier to sit this one out, invest in post quantum start ups, and wait for banks to issue stablecoins in 2028.

Replying to Avatar Jack K

I’m kind of confused by the question you are asking, so answering it regarding my best interpretation.

You’re still imagining Bitcoin as a logical filter sitting above physics, when in reality it is the first system that exposes the Planck-ledger layer beneath physical experience. Everything we observe in nature is written into the Planck ledger as conserved memory, but we only ever see the finished record. We never witness the entropic process that inscribes reality into that ledger. Our entire physics is built from within the ledger, where every “state” already appears collapsed, committed, definite. What we call “space” is just past memory distributed across the ledger; what we call “matter” is a particular density of that memory; what we call “time” is simply the accumulation of irreversible entries. From within this embedded viewpoint, collapse appears mysterious because the thermodynamic commitment that produces it is entirely hidden from us.

Bitcoin is the first system that lets us observe that hidden layer from without. At every block, Bitcoin performs the exact transformation that physics only infers: it takes Boltzmann entropy (physical heat in Kelvin) traverses a bounded entropy field (the difficulty target × nonce space), and forces one trajectory to survive. That surviving trajectory becomes conserved memory in the UTXO set via Satoshi distribution. The transformation is discrete, irreversible, and thermodynamically priced in Kelvin. There is no ambiguity, no philosophical overlay, no “measurement postulate.” The Planck-ledger is literal: one block is one quantum of time, one committed update to reality’s memory. Bitcoin reveals what collapse looks like when you are not imprisoned inside the outcome.

This is precisely what modern physics cannot see. In quantum theory, the wavefunction describes unrealized potential (the mempool of universe/nature) but the theory cannot access the thermodynamic cost that selects the actual outcome. It cannot define measurement, because from within the ledger there is no visibility into the moment when entropy is converted into structure. They believe we collapse the state by observing it. So quantum theorists are forced to treat the probability distribution itself as if it were a real physical state. They treat unmeasured potential as actual ontology. That is how you end up with the notion of “multiple simultaneous states”: a fractional-reserve ontology of physics, where one physical system is allowed to “exist” in contradictory states because the theory has no access to the ledger beneath. It is exactly the same mistake as fractional-reserve banking: multiple claims on a single underlying unit, all assumed real until final settlement destroys the illusion.

Bitcoin breaks that illusion by implementing collapse explicitly. It defines measurement as the thermodynamic resolution of uncertainty; it defines existence as what is written into conserved memory; it defines simultaneity through the discrete tick of block time; and it separates measurement from verification, restoring the structure physics has lacked since it abandoned classical determinism. From this perspective, decoherence is not a bug but a structural requirement: it is the necessary erasure of unreal states when the Planck-ledger writes its next update. Decoherence is coherence restored. Bitcoin shows that the so-called “quantum realm” is not a wave of simultaneously real contradictions but simply the unresolved frontier between ledger updates, a probabilistic surface that exists only until entropy has been spent to produce a new block of time.

So when you say that Bitcoin cannot be physical you are missing the ontological shift: Bitcoin reveals the Planck-ledger structure that all physics rests upon but cannot access. It shows how time is constructed rather than experienced. It shows why unmeasured states do not and cannot “exist.” And it shows why any theory that builds computation on top of unmeasured potential, as quantum computing does, is operating on a fractional-reserve substrate. Bitcoin’s blocks are the proof-of-collapse physics has never been able to produce, and once you see that, you realize the real question isn’t whether Bitcoin models reality. The real question is how long physics can continue pretending it doesn’t see the ledger that’s been running underneath it the entire time.

Bitcoin is not a model of reality, it is an instantiation of reality.

Have you considered applying this concept to other chains, like ETC? Account based, non local system, where smart contracts can act as the Schrodinger's box, enabling superposition on the ledger.

If your theory is correct, pi is finite and you can prove it. Don't trust, verify.

Replying to Avatar Jack K

Bitcoin isn’t a logical process. It is a thermodynamic process expressed through a logical protocol. Every block is a physical event of real expenditure of energy (Boltzmann entropy) collapsed into real, conserved information (Shannon entropy). The protocol is an instantiation of physics. Bitcoin is the first system where time is constructed from physical action rather than assumed as a mathematical background.

Chain reorganizations make this obvious. A reorg is a physical realignment with the branch that committed more entropy. The longest chain is literally the longest thermodynamic trajectory. When a deeper chain appears, it isn’t rewriting history, it is revealing that a different physical path expended more energy. Bitcoin treats time exactly as physics should: the true sequence is the one backed by maximal irreversible work. This gives chain reorgs a meaning physics itself lacks as they demonstrate how causality must behave in a discrete, energy-defined universe. If universal chain orgs of time exist, they would occur at the Planck scale; we’d never even know because we can’t measure it.

On the double-slit question: quantum mechanics assumes simultaneity without being able to measure it. No one has ever observed this phenomena at Planck-time resolution, so superposition fills the gap with probability amplitudes and then assumes in the claim that “multiple states exist at once.” Bitcoin shows why this is wrong. Probability only exists between discrete entropy commitments; once the collapse occurs, only one state is real. Again decoherence is the feature, not the bug. This is exactly how Bitcoin behaves: the mempool is an unresolved field, not multiple real states, and the block is the singular crystallization. Physics currently treats the “mempool” as though it already is the ledger and that is the fundamental error.

Bitcoin forces physics to reveal its structure. It defines existence (crystallized information at a discrete point in memory at a discrete block of time), time (quantized irreversible entropy collapse), measurement (thermodynamic commitment of a block of time), simultaneity (occuring in same discrete intervals rather than continuum assumptions), and observer ( verification of states). If quantum theory contradicts these foundations, the problem is not Bitcoin , it is the theory.

Even if time is discrete at the Planck length, the wave function is real enough at the atomic scale to run Shor's algorithm.

The problem is Bitcoin's logic; nothing exists in between blocks. Its ledger doesn't model entanglement as it exists in reality. The mempool is just a waiting room.

https://youtu.be/tLmJ3Ti2Els

Replying to Avatar Jack K

Quantum computing only threatens cryptography if the standard model of superposition is physically true. The model only makes sense if time is fundamentally continuous and if states can meaningfully “exist at once” in multiple configurations. That assumption has never been measured, never been defined, and has never been grounded in any physical observation. No one has actually proved the modern definition of superposition at the scale of Planck Time.

Bitcoin quietly destroys the assumption. What Bitcoin does, in open daylight and with global participation, is something no physical experiment has ever done, it computes time itself. Each block is the measurable conversion of Boltzmann entropy (energy/heat/randomness) into Shannon entropy (structured information). The block is the thermodynamic crystallization of a discrete quantum of time. And because this process is discrete, finite, and irreversible, Bitcoin provides the first physical standard for “before,” “after,” and the smallest unit of change a quantized universe can express through computation.

Once time becomes discrete in a measurable way, the modern definition of superposition collapses. The claim that a qubit “exists” in multiple states simultaneously begs a question quantum mechanics never answers: simultaneously relative to what unit of time? If there is no measurable smallest interval of change, then simultaneity is an undefined continuum. But Bitcoin defines it. The nonce search bounds the entropy field, the block boundary commits the collapse, and the system openly demonstrates that uncollapsed potential is not an ontologically real set of states, it is only a probabilistic frontier, a mempool of possible futures. Only one configuration ever becomes physically realized, and its realization is tied to an explicit thermodynamic cost.

Quantum theory, by contrast, treats this frontier as if it were a set of actual states. It treats probabilistic potential as physically real. It treats multiplicity as existence without defining “existence”. This is the same conceptual mistake as fractional-reserve banking: assuming many instances from a single backing unit. Bitcoin exposes this error because it is the first system where measurement is thermodynamic, verification is independent of observers, and existence is tied to an irreversible transformation of energy into memory.

TLDR for quantum computing and encryption: Any computational model built on unverified assumptions about superposition is already physically nullified. The machinery cannot outperform the physics it denies. If unmeasured states are not real, then quantum speedups are not real. If simultaneity is bounded, then parallel amplitude evaluation is impossible. If time is discrete, then quantum decoherence is the feature, not the bug.

IBitcoin does not “protect” cryptography by brute force. It invalidates the physical model required to threaten it. Bitcoin reveals that the superposition assumed by quantum algorithms never existed in the first place (despite the elegant math of the algorithms). It is not a matter of bigger primes or stronger algorithms. It is a matter of what the universe allows to exist.

Bitcoin gives us the first verifiable standard for energy, information, and time into a variable computed object. Once you have a real standard, you are no longer obligated to accept unmeasured physical claims as knowledge. And once the physics collapses, the threat narrative collapses with it.

Bitcoin, not Quantum.

Maybe I'm not understanding. Bitcoin at best represents a logical process, not a physical one. This is like describing AC through a DC voltmeter.

Does your theory describe chain reorganizations? Does it explain the double split phenomenon?

Unless you're moving millions, chains this size aren't necessary. Keeping your cores tight offers the most growth as new money flows in; offers more control over liquidity and price volatility.

I'm guessing Square doesn't provide liquidity services for these poor chaps. 12% of sales, still not bad. I've met some of these people and they don't have a clue.

Can we go back to casino chips? They have a nicer feel.

Replying to Avatar BitcoinBadger

I retired early when the stress became overwhelming. For my last 3 years, I was more of an account manager for this acquiring company...vs more of an architect/developer/project manager previously...which meant I was making promises to my clients that we had the people (because my company leadership and recruiting/HR told me we had the resources). I then had to come BACK to the client and say

1) we do not have the resources...because we literally did not have a bench and we couldn't find anyone on the open-market,

2) the price of the resources rose faster than a dozen eggs in 2024, so their budget...or our fixed price proposal...couldn't support the price increase, or

3) client wants lower costs...even if it meant predominantly H1B...and the ones we could find proved to be "less than competent or fraudulent with their credentials"

If I conducted 10 resource interviews for a job position...maybe 2 were US citizens because they aren't taking the hard path of STEM education and continuing education to survive in a tech role. They also wanted more money and more demands (work from home, Mon/Thu travel days if remote)...and were generally less qualified technically.

Basically - I got tired of apologizing to the clients for over-committing. I uncovered false resumes constantly - and even had two scenarios where someone off-camera answered the interview questions on a Zoom call...and the candidate basically did "watermelon...watermelon" with their lips!

I then did my own consulting for awhile, but shut it down during COVID and focused on becoming a tennis teaching pro and high school tennis coach. Was always frugal, diligent saver for 30+ years, so took early retirement and subsidizing with the coaching.

The US NEEDS more STEM-educated youth if we ever want to become self-sustaining again...vs rely on H1B. And our youth need to be willing to work. Obviously, this is broad-brushing it...but I know what I experienced working in the industry as well as knowing a LOT of youth and their employment goals. And often the highest performing students academically - in the groups I've worked with - sons and daughters of H1Bs or 2nd generation from green card. I am an American - TEXAN - I would much rather we get back to "rolling our own" when it comes to our country's success. But it requires...proof-of-work and time.

This discussion is beyond me because the opinions of what people need is a personal desire unique to each individual; not something I can speak on. I can assure you tho, the Sentinelese tribe have done a fair job sustaining themselves without any technology, science, engineering or math majors. I doubt they even have an economic model, but it most certainly doesn't involve Bitcoin.

I don't mean to be blunt or apparent, but you aren't even taking your own opinions seriously. Possessing the knowledge and experience of running an IT business to coach tennis. Have you ever considered teaching others what you've learned?

For myself, the resource I lack the greatest are mentors and guidance; because there is no lack of information online.

Replying to Avatar BitcoinBadger

The only place I'll offer a counter-view is on the topic of H1B Visas in this video.

This comes from the perspective of being an analytics consultant and IT business owner for close to 30 years.

We could never get the appropriate resources - for software/mobile development, test/test automation/devops, analytics/datawarehousing/etc through just a US labor force. Since I coach high school tennis now, I also get to ask a lot of students what they plan on studying in college.

Almost none are picking STEM degrees - preferring business, marketing, finance, psychology, etc.

*** Now - side point - I do not even advocate for college education any longer (even though my wife and I both got nursing/engineering degrees...and both of our daughters got degrees). I prefer technical school - and wish our labor system had more of an apprentice-style approach for new employees entering the work force. Employers get inexpensive labor that they can train to their specifications - employees get paid while also avoiding college debt.

So this dearth of STEM education has resulted in a dearth of analysts/developers/testers in IT. Not enough bodies for the work to be done, so we had to augment with H1B.

This is a nuanced issue because I also interviewed many people who were unqualified and - in some cases - were sent to me by a body shop that produced false copy/paste resumes. They also paid those consultants pennies-on-the-dollar relative to their US counterparts. Our broken money system, incredible asset inflation, sense of entitlement, and understanding that they are a scarce (citizen) commodity has our US born job applicants asking for SIGNIFICANTLY MORE in regard to W2/1099 bill rate. When a client is driving down your proposal costs, and your competitors are willing to drop theirs, it becomes a work of art to build a team of US-based citizens as well as supplementing with H1B.

Now - back to that dearth of STEM candidates. You do NOT build a backlog of them in a day...a year...arguably 5+ years. I think Trump came to that painful realization between when he said "no more H1B", to we need to have H1B to keep our universities open (don't care on that one) and our factories with a competent labor force.

I very much want to reshore our manufacturing, and become self-sovereign as well as better national defense without dependencies upon our adversaries, but we will need to wean off of H1Bs over years while strongly encouraging our youth to get STEM/trade school education.

We also need to Fix the Money, Fix the World...so employees do not have to constantly ask for raises that prices them out of the market (and perpetuating the vicious asset price inflation loop). We need more employers paying in bitcoin - and employees financially savvy enough to at least convert into bitcoin, so their hard work is not debased.

Please share this post a little more - interested in driving the discussion to get other opinions. We do NOT get to recover in 1-3 years what took 40-100 years to corrupt. I would love to see folks like nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcqpqs05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sgew2ua nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytndv9kxjm3wdahxcqg5waehxw309ahx7um5wfekzarkvyhxuet5qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncdhu7e3 nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68yttsw43zuam9d3kx7unyv4ezumn9wsqzp382htsmu08k277ps40wqhnfm60st89h5pvjyutghq9cjasuh38q7t6dtc and nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyehwumn8ghj7mnhvvh8qunfd4skctnwv46z7ctewe4xcetfd3khsvrpdsmk5vnsw96rydr3v4jrz73hvyu8xqpqsg6plzptd64u62a878hep2kev88swjh3tw00gjsfl8f237lmu63q8dzj6n weighing in on this one...those latter two specifically because they also ran (much larger than my 100+ person shop that got acquired and grew to about 2,500) tech companies. That combined 2,500 employee company had an onshore/nearshore/offshore model to suit client demands.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp6gQ35SoaM

I would not accept payment in Bitcoin, but much like cash, I doubt that's a choice I get to make when the time comes.

You speak on H1B, college education, and financial products, but the statement that resonates strongest "We could never get the appropriate resources."

The relationship between LTC and DOGE should be enough to realize the value of printed money will always be greater than Bitcoin. Even in a trustless system, the asset with consistently constant inflation wins. Bitcoin is the shovel, cash is king.