I can't tell you what's right for you, Troy, but I can tell you what I'm doing.
My guess is I'm a little bit older than you - back nine. And I'm going to work as hard as I possibly can and physically can until 2030, because the window is closing. And I think psychologically it's easier to look at a 5-year chunk than something like a 10- or 20-year chunk. I also have a job that even if I leverage AI well, the current business will be eaten up by AI.
Based on my situation with my kids, I'm going to need to live in a really high cost of living area during these next five years. If I had the ability to move my family to some place that costs less, I would do it in a heartbeat.
So where I live, the stack you need 10-20 years from now is going to be higher than other places in the United States.
I haven't been in Bitcoin that long, but one of the coolest things is that every time I have a little extra money, I just go to nostr:npub1xkere5pd94672h8w8r77uf4ustcazhfujkqgqzcykrdzakm4zl4qeud0en and buy some. I'm always surprised some number of months later the stack if worth quite a bit more in fiat. Staying humble and stacking really does seem like the way. They have really nice DCA options.
And I forgot to include this in the original writing, which is the most important thing! Here's what 0.3166 BTC 20 years from now is going to be...
Bitcoin price: roughly $9,000,000
Started in 2025 (Age 40)
Total invested: $166,993
BTC accumulated: 0.3166 BTC
Portfolio value: $2,849,175 😀
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Waited Until 2028 (Age 43)
Total invested: $148,349
BTC accumulated: 0.1492 BTC
Portfolio value: $1,343,214
The Cost of Waiting
You saved $18,645 by waiting 3 years.
It cost you $1,505,961 at age 60.
You end up with 52.9% less Bitcoin and your portfolio is $1.5 million smaller. 😬
I understand. You’re right, It totally depends on each persons situation. I am just going to keep stacking as much as I can and go from there. I really am curious to see where this thing goes. 👍🏻 Thanks again for all your feedback!
Like it says in my profile, I feel like I'm late to bitcoin too nostr:npub1ed9z0n5gvanga85rkex48wcckd0zmcuhdpt2gmcuelsl7saf3vzqv3hj35 . 👊
The average teacher in my kid's school district is 40. At most they can save 6k a year.
While they get a salary increase each year, that won't keep up with inflation. Now, where my kids go to school there are tons of ways for them to make money in the summer, but lets assume they don't do that.
I believe in the Power Curve (Power Law) and I very much like the Bitcoin 1 Million site - link below - to model out the price. You can look at where we'll be in 60 days, where we'll be in in 5 years, and even where we could be in 2045.
I used data from the website, and then assumed that they'll get a small raise each year.
And the news is GOOD!!! Over 20 years they can go from 0.0 to 0.316575.
However they're going to need to get convicted this year or next year, and they're going to have to go all-in. Here's the math that supports what I said above:
The First 4 Years: 2025-2028
2025 (age 40): 23.1% of total stack
2026 (age 41): 17.0% of total stack
2027 (age 42): 12.8% of total stack
2028 (age 43): 9.7% of total stack
Combined 2025-2028: 62.5% of total Bitcoin.
What I was not accounting for is that teachers have very good retirements. But there's multiple states where the retirements funds have been scaled back by the state government.
Here's one more piece of data.
Let's say somebody is not convicted until Bitcoin passes the $200,000 mark. So they don't buy until 2028, but then they go all in (not likely they'd go all in if they sat on the sidelines 2025-2027, but it makes our math simpler).
They would have half as much Bitcoin 20 years from now. Miss 2025-2027 and you've made a huge error.
The bottom line is my comment was simplistic and more doomsday, yet the math of getting 63.5% of a stack in the first 4 years of a 20 year timeframe is true.
Wow! Thanks for the detailed response. Appreciated your breakdown of the numbers. It totally makes sense what you are saying. I’ve never seen that site before. I think I am on the right track but still thinking I am too late to stack enough to be meaningful. I am going to try and keep stacking as much as I can but what would you say is the minimum stack that would still be meaningful?? I’ve heard 0.21, 0.1, or even 0.01. Thoughts?
I feel like I am already too late to the game too. :/ How much would you say is a meaningful amount?? Just curious cause I hear a lot of different numbers around this.
Nice! Good luck out there. Share a pic if you get one. 👍🏻 Nice to follow a fellow hunter in here.
It is definitely harder but hard to say how much. I think the biggest thing is you have to be able to get them to come in a lot closer to even have a chance at a shot. Also, deer tend to run off after an arrow vs a gun so it’s tricky to track them sometimes. I’ll keep the Nostr world updated on how my hunting goes. Thanks for the follow!
No luck. :/ I saw one but it was too far away and never walked my way.
#GN! Good night! It was a busy day with deer hunting, Church, and then family time carving pumpkins. Check out these beauties! Post yours in the comments. 👍🏻
They are called delicata squash. They are so good baked in the oven with a little bit of olive oil. They keep for quite a while. They should last through the winter. 👍🏻
Nice! Looks like you had better luck bird hunting than I did deer hunting. Saw one but it was too far away.
😂 Do you live in a game farm?? That’s funny. It always seems the deer prefer neighborhoods rather than being in the woods. 😅
Nice! I am seeing about the same so far. Not much action yet but seems like it is going to pick up soon. Thanks for the follow! Looking forward to seeing your posts! 👍🏻
Happy Sunday all! Spending a little time in the deer stand before going to Church. Are there any fellow deer hunters on here? Anyone else been out in the woods?? #Sunday #Hunting
Nice to meet you! I did give a follow and look forward to checking out your page. I have been using primal on my phone. Do you like Damus over primal??
Welcome! Nice to meet you. Have you had luck connecting with people?? I’m just starting to get connected.
#GN! It was a huge day for me in the Nostr world. Thanks to nostr:npub14q8uffuxxnhzd24u4j23kn8a0dt2ux96h5eutt7u76lddhyqa0gs97ct2x and nostr:npub1g9ysswt67fnyqfrsgtd8l9p0eyccxlydn5eq0cn3evhm9w7e5nkssvzlky for connecting with me and giving me a shout out. Appreciate all the new followers and hope to keep connecting with others.
Great day. I may be able to sign a new lease tomorrow and move in a few weeks. Hopefully I won’t be doing this again for year.
Lots of zaps tonight because I finely had an hour to scroll and read and smile. Another gem from nostr:npub14hq5lgadtyy9dhvtszq46dnl0s0xwdddqr7e32rdqqhma8a4xhsspxjjzu and a very cool image from nostr:npub15lar27cac968z4m4c0up2p7d8ructq63yef3hfze4p29u5hmpd3q2pk9lt deserved some sats. #zaplog
Welcome nostr:npub1ed9z0n5gvanga85rkex48wcckd0zmcuhdpt2gmcuelsl7saf3vzqv3hj35 - he’s new, just like I was a few weeks ago. It’s great to have you here!
Good night 😀👊💤
Thanks for the shout out!! 🫡 it’s been fun to make some connections on here with real people.
Thanks! Appreciate the welcome. And the zaps too! 👍🏻 I’m still figuring all that out. I will definitely give that hashtag a look. I might have to get on the GM and GN trend as well.
That’s awesome! Funny verification. I will post a pic when I get a chance.
Thanks for the warm welcome!!
Good call. 👍🏻 I am going to have to start doing the same. Glad to actually connect with another legit person on here. Nice to meet you.
Just joined up not long ago and glad to finally be early to the future for once. 👍🏻
It's all about the math, if it's wrong, you will not have fun. To start off, note all the loads you want to power in watts and the amount of time per day the load needs to run. Also, do you need only 120VAC or do you also need 240VAC. If you can't find a devices watt rating, multiply the devices volts x amps. For example 120vac X 2.5amps = 300watts. Look online for a good solar sizing calculator, this one comes to mind. https://diysolarforum.com/resources/system-energy-audit-and-sizing-spread-sheet.12/
Thanks for the response! I’ll definitely check out that calculator. Sounds like I have a lot more research to do before jumping in. 👍🏻 Appreciate the starting point though!
PSA! Just a heads up about nostr:npub1rvkhaylsn2qmm2xvqes9a53yzlmcgcnqdaltvy8v3c69c9sgckjqpzqqat. Pretty sure I was being #scammed. Stay frosty out there everyone. 👍🏻
Harvest time! Favorite part of #gardening. Especially digging up the potatoes. The joy of finding the buried treasure of all your hard work through the summer. 👍🏻 Hope all the gardeners out there are having a good harvest!
Just starting down the rabbit hole that is bitcoin. Been seeing this a lot. What’s significant about 0.1 BTC?? Asking for a friend. 😅
Anyone else still up after watching the Pats vs. Bills game??? Good game but was hoping Maye could have pulled through for me in fantasy. Lost by 6 points! 1 TD was all I was asking for. 😅 Oh well, time to start getting ready for next week.
GM! I’m #new to the Nostr protocol but have definitely fallen into the rabbit hole. Lookin forward to seeing where this thing goes.
I’m dabbling in #Bitcoin a little bit and seems like this is a good place to learn. I’m also interested in connecting with other Catholics, outdoorsy people, football fans, and fitness enthusiasts.